Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842665)

World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH (Post 12842712)

It has always been obvious to me from the early days

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12842872)

When you say cost of COVID, is this direct expenditure to mitigate the virus, or loss in GDP as a result of lockdown?

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842665)

World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842878)

The US stimulus package is estimate at 2T, the U.K. around 0.5T and that’s just two countries.

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12842894)

Understood, but that stimulus package isn't disappearing into thin air, it's being spent and injected into the economy and ultimately into people's hands. Whether it's the right people is another matter.

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842896)

It will probably go the same path as all the others... asset booms that benefit the rich, and paid for by taxing the middle classes. The poor will always remain poor.

Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842665)

World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12842957)

Abu Dhabi recently cancelled all bus services, and have now started spraying disinfectant during the day (a lorry just went past my house an hour ago). And field hospitals continue to open with 1000s of beds of capacity. Are things opening up in Dubai?

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842961)

The opening strategy has been released, maybe to pacify groups wanting more freedom over Ramadan. It anticipates mall reopenings but at limited capacity, a daily walk etc. It doesn’t have any dates but it’s got a lot of people excited.

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12842962)

It's unfortunate isn't it. If you read it, it's clear that there's going to be some new 'freedoms' but not today....but the average commenters seem to think it's carte blanche to be a helmet.

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842972)

The bit I'm looking forward to is opening the malls with 75% of the parking closed. Will be a total shit show when 100% of the people show up.

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12842873)

And so we begin.

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842955)

seems we might be unlocking sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH (Post 12843007)

WHO estimates half the deaths are from care homes. We can reasonably infer many if not most of the deaths outside care homes are still among a similar demographics who still live in their own homes.

The data from China, as corrupt as it might be, was still mirrored by Italy. Average age of death 80ish with existing comorbidities.

In the US, one state, Minnesota, has an average age at 84. Massachusetts is around 81.

That's the data. But we're treating the virus as if it was killing broad swathes of the population. But it's not. As Millhouse points out, the economic toll on broad swathes of the population is a killer in it's own way.

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12842896)

It will probably go the same path as all the others... asset booms that benefit the rich, and paid for by taxing the middle classes. The poor will always remain poor.

Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12842980)

The first Friday night it happens, can you imagine?

Originally Posted by NorthernLad (Post 12843039)

Set up a YouTube channel, I'd pay to watch that.

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12843041)

Livestreaming carnage from the mall of people trying to get in. It would just be a solid car horn noise.

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH (Post 12842712)

What I do find fascinating is that we already know a great deal about COVID-19. Despite the media obsession with every young death, in reality it kills old people, and not just old people but old people with significant health problems. It's why the average age of death is quite high, hovering around 80. We do know it kills a small number of younger people with substantial existing health problems. We know the fatality rate overall for young people regardless of health is well below 1% (meaning for healthy young people it's inconsequential and just as rare as the healthy young man who drops dead of a heart attack at age 40).

This notion that some people have that we're at war with a virus is silly. The virus cannot be vanquished. It's not an enemy that can be humbled and reformed into obedience. It's here. We have to deal with it. A vaccine in due time (if one is found) will help, but it won't end the virus no more than the regular flu vaccine defeated the flu. Herd immunity is the most likely long term outlook. The one size fits all mass shutdown was an attempt to declare war on the virus and we have seen the obscene economic toll paid so far, and when all's said and done, didn't really save lives. This one size fits all mass shutdown did have the advantage of buying some time but that time has also showed us the virus is far less deadly for the larger population than earlier believed. It has always been obvious to me from the early days the pragmatic approach was to quarantine the care homes and identified high-risk people still living in their own homes. Instead of devoting so much resources to mass testing of general populations, test everyone who works for a care home, and test them daily to prevent asymptomatic people from transferring the virus to the care homes or hospitals. And let everyone else get on with life.

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12843988)

Sounds like the regulation changes in Dubai have confused people. Twitter is full of tweets rejoicing that Dubai is now corona-free.

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12844316)

Yes, here's to a nice resumption of full pelt logarithmic growth.

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12844319)

Only if they keep testing and releasing the numbers.

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12844370)

Did you see what happened at McGettigans?

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12844424)

Oh really, didn't know that.

Originally Posted by csdf (Post 12844424)

Oh really, didn't know that.

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12844701)

Spoke to a mate who runs a restaurant. His words; "McGetts ruined it for everyone".
He will be opening from Tuesday but not serving booze for duration of Ramadan.

Good news is, it appears golf courses may be opening....

Originally Posted by co durham boy (Post 12844765)

Open by us , fill your boots . Plastic glasses mind but hey ho , any port and all that !

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12844767)

Still open?

Originally Posted by co durham boy (Post 12844778)

Yes mate , well it was last night .

Originally Posted by Gavtek (Post 12844781)

This story and accompanying pictures :tape:

https://www.thenational.ae/uae/healt...rict-1.1011232