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Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

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Old Nov 16th 2015, 4:25 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by dbd33
It only looks expensive if you compare it to really hick places or to places on the east coast with similar attractions; Halifax, for example.
The East coast is distorted by cheap property. When you take into account lack of opportunities, crap wages when if ever you get said opportunity, Higher taxes, Bills, Cost and lack of availability of everything it is not as clear as that. Having looked at moving we would almost certainly be better off in Southern ON (outside of the GTA )
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 4:45 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by Alex2201
The East coast is distorted by cheap property.
It was the price of property to which I referred.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 4:46 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by Jsmth321
People in London, NYC, San Francisco can do the same as you suggest people in Vancouver do.
Well, yes, but I can see why they would choose to stay.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 4:59 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Define going down?
Are we talking a reduction of 20% or as some say a possibility of a 40% reduction as the market is overvalued.
If they stopped foreign buyers might this reduce the price?
Say a 3% increase in mortgage rates would this help lower prices?
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 6:01 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by Aviator
I've been hearing that for 20 years! It looks like later rather than sooner.
Vancouver prices were cheaper in 2001 than they were in 1995. Prices took around 8 or so years to recover after that particular bubble.

Now we're in a larger bubble, will history repeat?
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 6:05 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by Jsmth321
Probably not. I've been in BC over a decade and it's been the same, when will they go down?

Go out to Abbotsford or Chilliwack, sticks yes, but you can get nice houses under 900,000.

Squamish you will get a pretty nice house for 600-700k, still under 900,000 and kind of in the sticks but can get to downtown 90% of the time in an hour.

I wouldn't hold my breath for lower prices in Vancouver.
It's funny cos prices always go up until they don't. And they very rarely always go up.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 6:05 am
  #22  
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Assuming an average of 900,000, we would need the avg to fall about 750,000 to bring housing into our price range..... I won't hold my breath on that ever happening...
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 7:28 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by vanity
even houses out in the sticks are near 900K now

You clearly consider 'out in the sticks' to start with Richmond, Surrey or Burnaby then?

$600-700k will get you more house than most people will ever need (eg new, 3000sq ft) in many places on a 500-600 square metre lot, in anywhere just beyond those cities, unless you want a large lot.

'Out in the sticks' to me is anywhere beyond Maple Ridge or Langley (or in the only other non-ferry direction, it starts with Squamish).

Granted prices are going up rather quickly - our March 2015 purchase of $615k is probably worth 10% more already even 'out' in Maple Ridge, given the price and speed of recent local sales. Prices are actually quite subdued in Maple Ridge where probably 50% of current sales are brand new out-of-the box houses.

Even they are selling as fast as they can build them - in a subdivision down the street from us, they finish them on a Thursday and owners move in on the Friday....

The demand does appear to be a dash for a single family home though - anything connected to its neighbours takes a little longer to sell....

Last edited by withabix; Nov 16th 2015 at 7:34 am.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 7:53 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by el_richo
Vancouver prices were cheaper in 2001 than they were in 1995. Prices took around 8 or so years to recover after that particular bubble.

Now we're in a larger bubble, will history repeat?
If memory serves me, there was quite a run up in the early-mid 90's owing to the Hong Kong handover, and a large increase in the city's Asian population. Now, in a sense, Vancouver has reached a critical mass in terms of population size, foreign links, and diversification, so when there is a downturn (brought on by increased mortgage rates for example) the most correction there will be is 10-15% off future inflated prices. According to my crystal ball, that is.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 8:47 am
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Out in the sticks is past Chilliwack for me. Anything within 100 to 105km or so of Vancouver isnt in the sticks in my book.

Its all relative though for prices, to a family like us except for Chilliwack the entire LM is unaffordable and never will be affordable short of winning the lotto. But to most here they likely can find chunks which are.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 1:37 pm
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by dbd33
Well, yes, but I can see why they would choose to stay.
Well, that's a tad unfair. That's your assessment in any case. I've lived in London, NY, and visited SF. Vancouver has beauty and offers what many look for. Just because you don't deem it the same from a lifestyle perspective, doesn't mean others don't and that it shouldn't be evaluated on par.

The crunch is foreign purchases (which Christy Clark clearly has a vested interest in) and artificially low interest rates.

People need to vote these BC Liberals out when the time comes, her and the Vision Party have sold BC up the creek imho.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 1:40 pm
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian
Define going down?
Are we talking a reduction of 20% or as some say a possibility of a 40% reduction as the market is overvalued.
If they stopped foreign buyers might this reduce the price?
Say a 3% increase in mortgage rates would this help lower prices?
Well a 900K property last year now 1.3M
Or one that went for 850K just sold for 1.2

So within 9 months a 33% increase or thereabouts in some areas.
So 40% is fine just to get it to last year's levels.

A 3% increase would help somewhat, and if the BC Government stopped sticking their finger to locals (Christy Clark wouldn't even care to collect data, and then keeps hiding behind lack of data as the excuse not to act)

Last edited by vanity; Nov 16th 2015 at 1:46 pm.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 1:41 pm
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by el_richo
It's funny cos prices always go up until they don't. And they very rarely always go up.
Although it's become such a joke that even Rob Carrick started changing his tune recently and saying go in with less than 20% deposit
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 1:45 pm
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by withabix
You clearly consider 'out in the sticks' to start with Richmond, Surrey or Burnaby then?

$600-700k will get you more house than most people will ever need (eg new, 3000sq ft) in many places on a 500-600 square metre lot, in anywhere just beyond those cities, unless you want a large lot.

'Out in the sticks' to me is anywhere beyond Maple Ridge or Langley (or in the only other non-ferry direction, it starts with Squamish).

Granted prices are going up rather quickly - our March 2015 purchase of $615k is probably worth 10% more already even 'out' in Maple Ridge, given the price and speed of recent local sales. Prices are actually quite subdued in Maple Ridge where probably 50% of current sales are brand new out-of-the box houses.

Even they are selling as fast as they can build them - in a subdivision down the street from us, they finish them on a Thursday and owners move in on the Friday....

The demand does appear to be a dash for a single family home though - anything connected to its neighbours takes a little longer to sell....
Yeah Surrey, MR, Langley, West Coquitlam even

Richmond doesn't go for under 1m but I didn't favor that part of town.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 3:06 pm
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Default Re: Will Vancouver house prices ever go down?

Originally Posted by vanity
Well, that's a tad unfair. That's your assessment in any case. I've lived in London, NY, and visited SF. Vancouver has beauty and offers what many look for. Just because you don't deem it the same from a lifestyle perspective, doesn't mean others don't and that it shouldn't be evaluated on par.

The crunch is foreign purchases (which Christy Clark clearly has a vested interest in) and artificially low interest rates.

People need to vote these BC Liberals out when the time comes, her and the Vision Party have sold BC up the creek imho.
That's what it appeared voters were going to do last election, but wasn't so. I am not a fan of the BC Liberals, but not sure voters are willing to bring in the NDP which is the only viable opposition party in BC at the moment.
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