mdizzle

No, it doesn't.

Alan2005

I wonder if they have factored in that "no" voters are more likely to keep it quiet like they have to with Tory voters in general elections.

Novocastrian

The pollsters most certainly haven't (and shouldn't have) done that.

The value of polls in general appears to be reflected in the results of the one at the top of this thread.

jimf

It will be interesting to see if that turns out to be the case. I suspect the voters know that be appearing to flirt with independence they extract the best deal out of the rUK.

Shard

I think it might be a 2008 Obamaesque faith in Salmond's utopia.

jimf

It could be a sign of hubris. They're generally pretty good at keeping the fleece on well.

Cameron has to keep out of the way and allow Milliband to be projected as the next labour PM of the UK. It could go down to the labour voters in the central belt to decide this.

Shard

The horse has already bolted. Milliband asleep at the wheel as usual.

Alan2005

Are you suggesting that pollsters shouldn't factor out known biases?

UK general election polls have been spot on since Blair won in 97. Whether or not they are valuable is subjective, but they are generally accurate. Usually, those poo pooing them are those who are predicted to lose.

jimf

True it's all a bit late in the day. At least Cameron has kept out of it by and large and hasn't taken the bait.

Novocastrian

Yes I am. If known biases exist then the consumers of the poll result should do the factoring, whether that be the voters or the parties.

"Don't knows" don't split 50/50 but its impractical and beyond their remit for pollsters to predict the actual split. In large part of course because the split may be determined by events that have yet to occur when the poll was taken.

Alan2005

Voters aren't going to do that, they are mostly idiots.

Anyway, it will depend on what factoring is done. It might be in the sampling itself rather than just fudging the result.

JonboyE

I don't care one way or another but I liked this:

Novocastrian

I agree that voters are mostly idiots.

If the sampling is an issue (and of course it can be) that would simply be incompetence among the pollsters. One's own incompetence is rarely a "known bias".

prairiechicken

I've wondered how this would work too. My husband was born in England, but lived in Scotland for over 22 years before we moved to Canada last month, and thinks of himself as Scottish more than English. I was born in Canada, raised mostly in England, but chose Scotland as my home for 15 years, and that's where our son was born. But as we have moved away, would our long term residency count for anything in terms of Scottish citizenship? Would we even be entitled to return there to live there in the future if we wanted, without having to apply for permanent residency in what we consider to be our own country?

Alan2005

Well, sort of I suppose. Although I'm not sure that I'd characterise adjusting your methods in light of evidence as incompetence.

Edit: anyway this is tangential. I was just wondering if there is a similarity between Tory voters and no voters in their response to pollsters and what effect this night have on the results. Intuitively I can believe it, but who knows.