JuneSpring

I would guess that the difference is immigration - T and V are hotspots.

On this thread's topic, I think the petition is losing momentum - stagnant at just under 25K.

Shard

Indeed. I also think Vancouver operates in a bit of a microclimate (property wise) as it is attractive to Asian investors, and the size of the Asian investment pool is so disproportionally large to the property market of Vancouver. It doesn't mean prices will always rise, but it does put a floor on falls.

ExKiwilass

I've been here since 2002 and they were saying it then, at least for single family homes. Friends who grew up here say people have been saying it since the 1990s.

ExKiwilass

The petition is just scapegoating foreign buyers. the real problem is supply. Here's an article I found today, and I agree with it:

Suburban lifestyle in Vancouver ‘not realistic’: UDI | Metro

Stiffer foreign ownership rules would barely make a dent on Vancouver’s real estate market, according to the Urban Development Institute.

The most effective way to take pressure off the housing crunch is to increase supply by rezoning neighbourhoods made up of single-family homes, said president Anne McMullin ahead of the institute’s annual general meeting that aims to hammer home that point.

HA, love that they called Vancouver neighbourhoods suburban. The pretentious twats won't like that

JonboyE

Yes, that seems reasonable. The "bubble" argument is flawed as it assumes a closed system. The Lower Mainland is expecting an increase in population of over a million people in the next 25 years. They are going to need somewhere to live and they will not be competing with the ultra-rich Chinese.

vanity

Vancity seems to be a bit whorish with their housing reports (many flash headlines), but here is their latest, which I agree with, as I am almost inclined to leave too:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - May 21, 2015) - Rising Metro Vancouver real-estate prices are likely to trigger future labour shortages as salaries fall further behind the cost of living and drive workers to locate elsewhere, says a new report by Vancity credit union.

The report, Help Wanted: salaries, affordability and labour exodus in Metro Vancouver, found that if current trends continue, by 2025, 85 of 88 high-demand occupations will pay too little to support typical housing debt-loads. The report considers these high-demand jobs key to the region's future economic growth.

Only three occupations will still be able to afford housing in Metro Vancouver: senior business managers, senior construction managers and engineering managers. This imbalance is likely to drive highly mobile and educated Millennial workers to more affordable cities, resulting in a significant negative effect on Vancouver's long-term growth prospects due to labour shortages.

The report found:
•Between 2001 and 2014, Metro Vancouver housing costs increased 63 per cent, while salaries only rose 36.2 per cent.
•Vancouver housing is projected to rise by 4.87 per cent a year, but salaries will continue their low growth: wage rate growth with only rise between 0.6 per cent for some occupations to about 3.2 per cent for others.
•By 2025, the household income required to maintain the average mortgage will be $125,692.
•Economically vital occupations such as industrial electricians, civil engineers, construction managers, police officers, firefighters and general practitioners will not meet this threshold.

vanity

It does seem to have slowed down over the last few days. It needs media attention.

JonboyE

Or, as employers find they cannot attract the talent they need they will increase wages.

ExKiwilass

+1.

"They" have been saying for years the young are being driven out. I agree some are who really want that house, but i also see young people from other provinces who want this lifestyle/climate moving in. I work with a lot of millenials, most of them are sucking it up cos they want to stay.

el_richo

It's a big bubble. Look at all the UK and US as examples where it couldn't possibly happen. Don't forget, people thought they were too expensive 10 yrs ago but affordability was much much better. In 10 years the debt levels of Canadians has increased a crazy amount and the ceiling is closing in.

Can't you smell the change in the air? Smells lovely

Patience is all you need.

el_richo

Tell that to the folks in San Francisco

el_richo

And add that to consumer cost, mitigating any wage increase.

ExKiwilass

I've been hearing this since 2003.

blood in the streets
change in the air
market's going to collapse
be patient

JonboyE

I know I am turning into a crusty old git these days but to me the millenials' angst seems, at least partly, to be the result of an unreasonable level of expectation.

When we first were married we would have loved to buy a detached home in Hampsted. We couldn't afford one. What we could afford was to rent a one bedroom flat in South London that was already occupied by an interesting selection of wildlife, where we had to shove newspaper in the gaps in the window frames to keep the winter winds out, where we had to walk along a common landing to get to our bathroom.

The incentive to save was strong.

When we eventually saved enough we managed to buy a maisonette in a converted Edwardian house in Hanwell. It had a builders yard out the back, was on a busy road, and across the road was a DIY warehouse. It was grimy and needed at lot of TLC. But it was what we could afford.

Subsequent moves were to better houses in better areas but you start with what you can afford.

Many younger people these days seem to think they should be able to start with a 3,000 sf single family home with stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Most of them can't afford one but most would be able to afford a condo in Coquitlam for $138,000 or in Vancouver Eastside for $198,000 (if the air is too thin out in Coquitlam). But it is easier to whinge.

ExKiwilass

+1 I agree in lots of ways.