Ukraine
 

Russian troops moving in to key installations in the Crimea.

Who's got thoughts on how this jolly old rumble is going to play out then?

Re: Ukraine
 

The Rusians have one objective and that is to guarantee access to "their" warm water bases. The Americans are stirring up as much trouble as they can, while pissing themselves with delight. TBH apart from the Crimea, the whole country is flat, ugly and cold. Now where does that remind you of someplace?

Re: Ukraine
 

Russia is using Crimea and all the Russian 'citizens' that it needs to 'protect' as a way of provoking the interim Ukrainian govt.

The EU/USA/NATO will go to the UN Security Council where they will be hit with a Russian Veto before anyone has even opened their mouth to discuss the goings on.

Of course Ukraine could always rely on the US trying to scare the Russians away with a show of force in the Black Sea.. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/soc...ack-sea-n32991

Re: Ukraine
 

I think it has more to do with Moscow keeping its influence in the Ukraine as it realises that many in the Ukraine are looking West not East for the direction of their country.

Re: Ukraine
 

Well with Crimea is has a lot to do with the fact that it is not only a Russian majority region, but it is also home the to Russian Black Sea Fleet. I read on the BBC that terms of the lease allow for Russia to base 388 warships, 161 aircraft and 25,000+ personnel. So it is a major base for the Russians.

Of course Russia wants to keep it's influence over Ukraine, but the worrying thing is that there are sizable (and in some areas a majority) support groups for Russia and Russian interference, especially in the South and East

Re: Ukraine
 

Hmm... I think its gonna be the usual , US makes a big stink but won't to sh*t about it (and this is one of the cases where it should do something, as Ukraine wants to westernize and eventually join the EU, and Russian interference won't help)

Maybe if Russia were invading Israel they'd care more :rofl:

Re: Ukraine
 

What does that mean in this context?

Re: Ukraine
 

Norwich ?

Re: Ukraine
 

The original question was "How do you think this will play out?" and I answered... I think the US would respond immediately if Russia were to, say, invade Israel. But thats another topic.

Re: Ukraine
 

What I find totally ridiculous about the whole situation is that the UK is talking about making a loan to Ukraine to stabilize their finances.

The UK, a country planning to have a referendum on leaving the EU. Ukraine, a country on the verge of civil war because it wants to join the EU.

Possibly one of the biggest ironies of all time.

Yanokovich as far as I can tell made a totally reasonable decision, country nearly bankrupt, Russia offers a $15 billion loan. EU offers nothing comparable. Not much of a choice really, is it?

The EU could have avoided this whole situation by dealing with it better from the outset, I agree with the State Dept.

Re: Ukraine
 

Canada :rofl: Besides southern B.C, the whole country is flat, ugly and cold :D

Re: Ukraine
 

a reasonable decision? one of the reasons for the country going bankrupt is the corruption that is rife within the govt. Did you see the paperwork his people tried to destroy in the water at Yanokovich's country residence??

Ukraine wasn't about to join the EU, it is many many years away from that. But a treaty which would have opened up it's economy to the European market rather than rely Russian aid would have been a much better option. Especially as Russia already holds Ukraine to ransom with their natural gas supply.

The west needs to grow some balls on this issue and make a stand against Russia, rather than speak rhetoric and do naff all. I am sure China is watching to see how the west reacts with great interest.

Re: Ukraine
 

Couldnt've said it better myself :goodpost:

Re: Ukraine
 

Just like the world did when they watched GW waltz into Iraq ?

Re: Ukraine
 

Thing is, Russia also holds Germany and Western Europe by the balls on the gassy stuff. The pipeline only goes through Ukraine.

Re: Ukraine
 

True.. although Norway could step in and replace some of that demand. They have been having somewhat of a price war with Russia over the last year or two.

Also gas demands should decrease in the coming months due to warmer weather (hopefully) and so would put less of a strain on EU reserves if called upon.

If the west allows Russian intervention then they're inviting them to establish another Soviet Union type.. Union? The Chinese would also see it as a precedent in its territorial disputes. Would also make a mockery of UN security council.. permanent member invading another country. Would be an Iraq situation again, only Russia can't pretend to be overthrowing a dictator to stop wmd's.

Re: Ukraine
 

This
:goodpost:

Re: Ukraine
 

Given the history of Ukraine / Ukraine SSR it's not quite the same as China invading an independent country. Particularly when there is a section of the population that is calling for it.

Re: Ukraine
 

There are a few months to sort it out before seeding the 2014 crops; Ukraine is the breadbasket of Eastern Europe and grain production already faces enough challenges from the weather and transport inefficiency (same as here). A lot of people could be in the unenviable position of starving next year as well as freezing if this turns into war. Unlike all the other bankrupt satellites the USSR was glad to be shed of, the Ukraine is very valuable property. The easy way would seem to be partitioning off the naval base and surrounding area as a Russian territory until their lease expires and maintain the rest of Crimea as part of Ukraine with ethnic Russians guaranteed equal rights. The last thing we need in this world is another war and if anyone tries to threaten Russia's Black Sea fleet there could be a big one and they have all the tools they need to fight it right there. China just does what they want anyway; this conflict shouldn't change what they do at all.

Re: Ukraine
 

You state "if the west allows Russian intervention..." What you really mean is if the US allows. No way is the current US government going to put a single pair of boots in harms way up against Russia.
The US will not be playing the worlds policeman for at least 3 years, for better or worse.

Re: Ukraine
 

Have you considered a career change to UN negotiator? :thumbup:

Re: Ukraine
 

I'd agree with Oink, warm water bases have always been critical to Russia, all their northern bases freeze up in winter and require massive ice breaking efforts in the months prior and after winter.

Russia has always been touchy about warm water bases and have in the past demonstrated they are prepared to go the distance to secure access to them.

Re: Ukraine
 

I'd venture a guess if any large scale war broke out with Russia and the west, the world isn't going to be a pleasant place to live for a while.

Re: Ukraine
 

Cold yes, a good part of Canada is, but I'd not say its ugly, some less pretty then others obviously, but I found parts of So. Ontario to be quite pretty, and parts of the prairies have their own beauty as well.

Pictures I've seen of Nova Scotia and New Foundland are quite nice as well.

Don't need mountains to have beauty, and plus mountains become old when its all you see for decades upon decades...lol

Re: Ukraine
 

If they go to war Vodka prices will escalate, Vodka riots will scar the bars and clubs, we will be doomed, I look at the bigger picture and weep

Re: Ukraine
 

+1

Re: Ukraine
 

I amend my statement (I guess since i've lived here my whole life i dont appreciate the place so much :o) ... With the exception of southern BC the whole country is cold

Re: Ukraine
 

Yeah it is ! Ukraine has been independent for some time, has their own nationality and passports, etc... Thats like saying it's OK for the US to invade Canada because of our close history with them.

Re: Ukraine
 

How do you think it would affect us here in Canada, or say people in the UK or the rest of the European Union ?

Re: Ukraine
 

I could see it turning into a world wide conflict quite easily, Russia is not some small time player, and could easily create a huge conflict if the west starts to meddle too much.

It would be idiotic and self destructive for the US or EU to start anything with Russia.

Re: Ukraine
 

WW III ? :rofl: That's not gonna happen. I think there should be some intervention by the EU/US, but just to ensure a fair resolution of this dispute. (Which is NOT Russian Federation taking over the Ukraine)

I think what needs to happen is Crimea and some of eastern Ukraine ceded to Russia as most people there are pro-Russian, and then the rest of the not-crazy, democratic-supporting people can modernize and develop Ukraine with the help of the EU...

Re: Ukraine
 

Never say never.

Re: Ukraine
 

Well I hope not ! I don't necessarily want WW III happening as i'm planning to move to Europe in three years!

Re: Ukraine
 

Should we worry about the price of cheese?

Re: Ukraine
 

China does have a long list of territorial disputes though. In it's view the territory is China's and not, say, India's/Nepal's etc. It even sets a precedent for Russia.. why stop at Ukraine? Why not go roll back into Georgia?


Russian troops have surrounded a a couple of Ukrainian army facilities, and are apparently digging in with trenches. The Ukrainians have fully mobilised their army and there will be widespread protests in Kiev and Western Ukraine for their govt. to do something to stand up to Russia.

Can the US and the EU really afford to stand by and do nothing? It would make a mockery of the EU for starters. Here is a country that brought itself to the brink of civil war (and still is on the brink) in order to align itself more with open markets and "Western democracy".. and the West just sits on their thumbs, shrugs their shoulders and says oh you're being invaded by the oppressor you were trying to rid yourself of? Oh well. Sorry about that.

I am not saying that the West declare war. But talking rhetoric at press conferences really means jack squat. Park a few more ships in and around the Black Sea.. there are already a few in the region from the Sochi games anyways. Ask Norway, Algeria, Nigeria and other European suppliers to step up natural gas production to reduce the Russian bargaining chip. Then slap hefty sanctions on the Russians.

That way the US, EU and Ukraine will have a stronger position at the negotiating table. Russia keep their bases in Crimea until the lease expires. The Russian population will get guaranteed equal rights from Ukraine.

How long before the West start throwing sanctions around?

Re: Ukraine
 

Nah unless you have a specific Ukrainian cheese that you like or the cheese is processed and distributed from the Ukraine. I wouldn't worry too much about the cheese being impacted price wise or its availability.

Re: Ukraine
 

:goodpost:

Re: Ukraine
 

A completely false analogy. The Ukraine was part of the USSR for almost a century and has had political ties with Russia for centuries before that. Canada has never been part of the USA and any "history" is largely cultural with the primary political history being that Canada was refuge for loyalist Brits who disagreed with American independence.

Re: Ukraine
 

+1 again

Re: Ukraine
 

Yes, sorry about that. Nothing we can do when the oppressor is Russia. Realpolitik, Cold War, etc etc.. It's up to the Ukraine and Russia IMO, they're the states with the interwoven history and peoples. The EU is already creaking at the seems with expansion and financial pressure, what on earth can we do but bleat and admonish Putin.