Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Tangram
(Post 12622093)
Typo sorry
Originally Posted by Tangram
(Post 12622103)
So the DUP all voted against May's deal but will vote with the Government on a confidence vote ?!?!
Wow, we are so far through the looking glass. |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by BuckinghamshireBoy
(Post 12622133)
No worries, I had guessed as much. ;)
Indeed, the DUP are utter toads on this whole deal, Maybot made a huge mistake getting this lot 'on board'. She's made a lot of mistakes and underestimating the intransigence of the DUP was one of them but I don't see that the mess would be greatly different had she not made those mistakes. Cameron is the villain of this piece. |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by dbd33
(Post 12622223)
...Cameron is the villain of this piece.
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Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Shard
(Post 12622087)
Whichever way you slice it, People's Vote is one step closer. Failing that, a very soft Brexit.
The various factions don't appear to be able to agree upon anything that can be voted on, so no one "slice" is going to be big enough. |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
May has asked for "meaningful discussions" in cross-party talks, starting this evening. Every other significant player - spokespeople or leaders from Labour, the LIb Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and others - have all said that the first item in any negotiation will need to be that the "no deal" exit comes off the table as an option. The Government has apparently insisted that that will not happen. So don't expect any meaningful negotiations.
May has no way forward except to "delay" the provisions of Article 50, and ultimately, I suspect, to cave to pressure for a second referendum. Parliament has already agreed that it will have the final say on any exit plan; Parliament has also already agreed that a No Deal exit is not acceptable. The EU has absolutely no incentive whatsoever to reopen negotiations: they've offered their deal, which has been rejected by the UK Parliament, so the next move is absolutely for the UK to make. In all of this I can't help see the wonderful irony that this is a perfect example of the sovereignty of Britain's Parliament, which is what so many Brexiteers bleated on about. Not the sovereignty of the Government, nor of the nebulous "will of the people," but of Parliament. Parliament is exercising that sovereignty in an inexorable but glacial movement towards abandoning the whole notion of Brexit. And the Brexiteers, hoist on their own petard, suddenly don't like it. A plague on all their houses, say I. Brexit was a ridiculous notion from the first, poorly thought through, sold on a fabric of lies and misrepresentations, presented by a collection of individuals and organizations who (it is quite clear with the benefit of hindsight) never for one moment had the best interests of the country in mind. Much the best option now is to forget the whole idea, apologize to the nation for causing so much upheaval, and carry on as before safe in the knowledge that Parliamentary sovereignty has never actually been in any doubt at all. One further irony, of course, is that May won the confidence vote by almost the same 52:48 margin as the 2016 referendum result. Take from that what you will... |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Almost Canadian
(Post 12622500)
I don't understand such logic. Either Brexit is not going to happen, or there is going to be a no deal fall off the cliff, isn't there. How is a very soft Brexit going to happen in the time available, when the EU have made it clear the deal that was voted on yesterday is the "best the UK can get"?
The various factions don't appear to be able to agree upon anything that can be voted on, so no one "slice" is going to be big enough. |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Oakvillian
(Post 12622735)
A plague on all their houses, say I. Brexit was a ridiculous notion from the first, poorly thought through, sold on a fabric of lies and misrepresentations, presented by a collection of individuals and organizations who (it is quite clear with the benefit of hindsight) never for one moment had the best interests of the country in mind. Much the best option now is to forget the whole idea, apologize to the nation for causing so much upheaval, and carry on as before safe in the knowledge that Parliamentary sovereignty has never actually been in any doubt at all. One further irony, of course, is that May won the confidence vote by almost the same 52:48 margin as the 2016 referendum result. Take from that what you will... I noticed the further irony too. |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Shard
(Post 12622786)
Spot on. Not goning to happen, unfortunately. Too many loons have been unleashed.
I noticed the further irony too. Right now, electing Trump looks less stupid than voting for Brexit but, of course, he still has a thumb on the "End World" button. |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by dbd33
(Post 12622818)
I now think "no deal" is the most likely outcome. I expect a postponement. I think an election and another referendum to be possible and that neither would resolve the muddle; a slightly different selection of Tories would be elected and the referendum would again be inconclusive. Eventually the UK will run out of postponements, not be able to come up with a better deal than May's, and will drift out of the EU.
Right now, electing Trump looks less stupid than voting for Brexit but, of course, he still has a thumb on the "End World" button. |
Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Shard
(Post 12622969)
Well, anything can happen, but No Deal would be detrimental for the EU too, so they are incentvised to extend the negotiation. I think if a soft Brexit cannot be hammered out then Parliament is more likely to opt for the politically uncomfortable No Brexit than the economic catastrophe of No Deal. If you look at the chief proponents of No Deal (and there are very few) they all seem to be snake oil types, there are very few qualified economists or business leaders advocating No Deal.
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Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by dbd33
(Post 12623033)
There are very few qualified economists or business leaders advocating Brexit at all. The whole idea is ridiculous. Given that, it's a matter of how long can Parliament drag out the "not yet Brexit"? I'd guess maybe five years but that's not long enough to come to a consensus in Parliament so I think it has to end in "no deal".
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Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Shard
(Post 12623059)
Not understanding the logic here. Although UK triggered A50 it can rescind the A50 process of it's own volition. The only impediment appears to be the moral (not legal) obligation to uphold the 2016 referendum result.
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Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by dbd33
(Post 12623070)
Oh, not drag it out against a legal constraint, drag it out against bickering.
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Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by Shard
(Post 12623075)
By "no deal" do you mean no Brexit at all (as Oakvillian was suggesting)?
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Re: Three Days to Plan B
Originally Posted by dbd33
(Post 12623081)
No, I mean leaving the EU and adopted WTO trading rules. I mean the rest of the EU throwing their hands up and saying "piss off then".
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