Three Days to Plan B
 

I'm still undecided if electing Trump or voting for Brexit will turn out to be the most stupid thing done by people in my lifetime. I'm up to day with the Cheeto but I've rather fallen behind on the Brexit side of things so can someone explain the latest developments, simply and clearly for me?

My understanding is that:

The UK gave notice to leave the EU, the notice expires in less than three months.

May negotiated a deal to cover the administration of the leaving. It requires action to be implemented and that requires a successful vote in Parliament.

The vote on May's deal is set for next Tuesday, the vote is expected to go against it.

The same MPs voting against May's package don't want the leaving notice to just expire so they've introduced legislation objecting to a "no deal Brexit". They've set a timeline of three days after Tuesday for something to happen.

Accepting that no one involved has much of a clue, faced with a need to end an apartment rental agreement or employment contract early, they'd hide in the toilet; what do they think can happen? A new offer from the EU, a national realization that it was all a bad dream, extension of the current limbo for a decade? Are they after something and, if so, do they know what it is?

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

From my understanding of the situation May, who didn't campaign to leave, made a silly mistake by holding an election that she believed would "strengthen her position." Instead, it weakened her position.

As a result of this, the EU bargained far harder than it would have been able to and, from my perspective, is attempting to do everything in its power to make the "withdrawal arrangement" so unpalatable for both sides (Brexiteers and Remainers) that they hope a second referendum will be held which will end up with the UK not leaving.

May has negotiated to a position that the EU is stating is the best the UK can hope for. Neither the Brexiteers or the Remainers are willing to vote for it. Some of the Brexiteers appear somewhat happy to leave without a deal and rely upon WTO rules. The Remainers are arguing against the deal on the basis that a) a better deal can be negotiated (even though the EU have ruled this out) or b) another referendum can be held.

The Remainers appear to wish to use parliamentary procedure to prevent May being able to pass other legislation that will cause minor inconvenience to her government. One assume that, eventually, this will result in a vote of no confidence in her government and the unwholly mess that will result from that.

In the meantime the March deadline continues and I anticipate that, the closer that date gets, the more the EU and the UK will move towards a position whereby a sensible agreement can be reached. I see from the BBC today that Germany appears to be attempting something behind the scenes as a no deal Brexit would be bad for it.

Time will tell.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

This is a perspective I hadn't considered. I suppose it's too late now to know what a skilled negotiator may have been able to arrange. As always, it's a shame there's no credible opposition to the May government.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

In my opinion the deal will not and cannot be accepted because of the border issue in Northern Ireland. Regardless of you opinion on Brexit the UK could never accept a soft border in Northern Ireland as doing so is akin to handing over sovereignty on who controls a nations borders. The deal is a bad deal for all involved (brexiters and remainders) and will be rejected by parliament. What happens next, I suspect Limbo.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

One cannot leave the EU, without leaving the EU. From my perspective, as soon as the electorate voted for Brexit it was voting for a hard Brexit as the rest of the EU was never going to allow the UK to leave, but also keep its free trade within the EU. If the UK government had been strong enough to say: We are happy with WTO rules, but we hope for something better for both the EU and the UK, it may have been able to achieve something better, but with all sides debating what Brexit really means (in a hard, soft, context) the EU was always going to them the UK to "f*&k off" to such an extent the UK would decide to avoid the result of the referendum.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

I agree that the EU's proposal for the Irish border cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely, and I suspect that statements will be made by both sides that "confirm" (whatever that means) that the UK can withdraw without first obtaining the EU's consent to do so.

It is making the UK look like the US which is regrettable. Who is ever going to trust that politicians will carry out the result of a referendum in the future?

Corbyn's position is so confusing I don't have a clue what he is actually arguing for.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Hopefully the country won't ever hold another and we'll never have to find that out.

Referendums are a truly terrible idea and extremely dangerous for democracy.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

They work very well in Switzerland. This particular referendum wasn't a good idea, agreed.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

I have no issue with referenda. I do have an issue when the politicians, having been given the result, try to ignore it.

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I'd tend to go along with that. It is the way a referendum is conducted that makes it a useful democratic tool. They should be about non-emotional choices.
The problem is that those eligible to vote are rarely , if ever, given the whole open truth with which to make an informed decision. Too far media driven. Not enough fact and figures driven.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

It's what one is accustomed to, I suppose.

dbd33 is correct, they work well in CH, they are just part of a 'normal votation'. Held probably three or four times a year, usually with 6 or 7 different 'issues' bundled together so that one doesn't have too many Sunday fondues disrupted. It's part of Swiss fabric.

As to the non-emotional aspect, that wouldn't hold sway in CH. The major votations in my time there included "Should we join the EU?", "Should we buy these crap, overpriced, Swedish fighter jets?", "Should we hike the price of the annual highway tax sticker?", "Should the Federal government nationalise the myriad Health Insurance companies out there and bring them together under one roof?"

All good, legitimate stuff.

But it all depends on the political system "in the chair" in the country in question.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Well from a non sexual masochistic view I want Trump to be re-elected so we have 6 more years of him and I want the UK to leave the EU with either a deal or no deal.

The Muricans have only themselves to blame for allowing the Cheeto to win the Republican nomination and run for President and then elect him even though he didn't have the most votes and for the Dems putting Hilary forward as their nomination.

As for the Brits they held a non binding referendum about Leave or Remain. Apparently both sides told some porkies and based on this the Leave side won the referendum. The Govt triggered the Article 50 mechanism with the UK supposedly leaving the EU on 29 March this year.

So personally I have no sympathy as i live in Canada and could not vote in the referendum or vote in the USA and its not my fault.

TBF Canadians voted in the guy with nice hair and how is he working out for us?

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Well we don't appear to have the division currently seen in the UK and USA. Perhaps it's time they removed the united part. :lol:

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

In the queue buddy. Globally there is only room for two at a time, and France is up next. :huh:

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

I thought France led the way didn't they? ;)

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Theoretically, yes, but they often sit on the fence for too long, at which point someone else rips the fence up to add fuel to the bonfires and the holding pattern is re-established. :blink:

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Took a look west, Alberta is getting pretty upset with feds right now. I feel NDP will be out at next election and replaced by what ever the conservative party is called there now. That is only going to ramp up tensions between AB and feds. From what I am seeing Canada is diving into 2 camps, anti and pro resource sector.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

May's deal, technically known as "May's botched deal" is widely expected to be rejected tomorrow evening, in which case Jezza is expected to call a vote of no confidence (in the government, this time). Nobody is sure what stubborn as an ass May will do if defeated, but I'm not the only one hoping she will step aside, and at very least let a new Tory leader have a go. There are certainly going to be some fireworks for the remainder of the week.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Doug Ford has nice hair? IMHO he's the final own goal in the hat trick. And the final nail in the coffin of the old pro-worker red side and pro-business blues; there's not much that can be done with budgets these days so the argument is do you want to be global or isolationist. Or, pro-resource or anti-resource in Canada.

I'm glad that bill bringing plan B forward (3 day limit instead of the weeks they originally had) was passed, because I'd love to see how you'd turn Wing & a Prayer into policy. I actually think May's dogs dinner might be the most reasonable deal you're going to get, and with parliament split between Hard Brexit/ Canada Deal/ Norway Deal/ Broken May Deal/ No Brexit I can't see hoe they move forward.

Interesting that the SNP's objection to a soft border down the Irish sea is that it will make NI unfairly competitive... by my thumbsuck math that loses 35+7+4=46 from the opposition and 13 tories that's enough to give May a majority? So if Scotland had voted to leave the UK back in 2015, Brexit for England + NI + Wales would be a done deal?

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Suppose the government falls and there's an election. What would Labour's stance on Brexit be?

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Given the goat at the helm, that's the $64 million question. He's pro-Brexit, many Labour supporters are pro-Brexit, but the party is officially pro-Remain. He would need to follow party policy. I also think Labour would need to differentiate themselves from the Tories if a new election focussed on Brexit. But I don't think there will be a GE, I think it will go to a CU type Brexit deal (eg. Norway) or a People's Vote.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

I agree with all that but think that for Labour to be elected they would have to ditch Corbyn and go with someone credible, like David Lammy.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Who knows. If he rode the Remain bandwagon there would be a lot of people voting through their teeth for him, plus his army of Corbynistas.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

This is key particularly as the EU have stated that the deal on the table is the best they will offer. It seems to me that, if the result of the referendum is to be respected, the deal on the table is either accepted, or they leave without a deal. Anything else is simply attempting to avoid the result of the referendum which, of course, is precisely what lots want.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Especially noting the misinformation given at the time.

Seems as though the No Deal exit has been rejected by Parliament.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Err, no, that was not what the vote was about at all.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

So now there's a "no confidence" vote. Perhaps there will be an election. If there is Corbyn will again be a dodgy character not standing for anything much and the Tories will again be in office. Then will they have a clue what to do?

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Whichever way you slice it, People's Vote is one step closer. Failing that, a very soft Brexit.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Typo sorry

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So the DUP all voted against May's deal but will vote with the Government on a confidence vote ?!?!

Wow, we are so far through the looking glass.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

No worries, I had guessed as much. ;)

Indeed, the DUP are utter toads on this whole deal, Maybot made a huge mistake getting this lot 'on board'.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

She's made a lot of mistakes and underestimating the intransigence of the DUP was one of them but I don't see that the mess would be greatly different had she not made those mistakes. Cameron is the villain of this piece.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Indeed.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

I don't understand such logic. Either Brexit is not going to happen, or there is going to be a no deal fall off the cliff, isn't there. How is a very soft Brexit going to happen in the time available, when the EU have made it clear the deal that was voted on yesterday is the "best the UK can get"?

The various factions don't appear to be able to agree upon anything that can be voted on, so no one "slice" is going to be big enough.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

May has asked for "meaningful discussions" in cross-party talks, starting this evening. Every other significant player - spokespeople or leaders from Labour, the LIb Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and others - have all said that the first item in any negotiation will need to be that the "no deal" exit comes off the table as an option. The Government has apparently insisted that that will not happen. So don't expect any meaningful negotiations.

May has no way forward except to "delay" the provisions of Article 50, and ultimately, I suspect, to cave to pressure for a second referendum. Parliament has already agreed that it will have the final say on any exit plan; Parliament has also already agreed that a No Deal exit is not acceptable.

The EU has absolutely no incentive whatsoever to reopen negotiations: they've offered their deal, which has been rejected by the UK Parliament, so the next move is absolutely for the UK to make.

In all of this I can't help see the wonderful irony that this is a perfect example of the sovereignty of Britain's Parliament, which is what so many Brexiteers bleated on about. Not the sovereignty of the Government, nor of the nebulous "will of the people," but of Parliament. Parliament is exercising that sovereignty in an inexorable but glacial movement towards abandoning the whole notion of Brexit. And the Brexiteers, hoist on their own petard, suddenly don't like it.

A plague on all their houses, say I. Brexit was a ridiculous notion from the first, poorly thought through, sold on a fabric of lies and misrepresentations, presented by a collection of individuals and organizations who (it is quite clear with the benefit of hindsight) never for one moment had the best interests of the country in mind. Much the best option now is to forget the whole idea, apologize to the nation for causing so much upheaval, and carry on as before safe in the knowledge that Parliamentary sovereignty has never actually been in any doubt at all.

One further irony, of course, is that May won the confidence vote by almost the same 52:48 margin as the 2016 referendum result. Take from that what you will...

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

It's not "legally" possible at the moment, but we are in new territory. Apart from the extreme Brexiters there seems to be a consensus in Parliament and the EU that a No Deal (cliff edge) is chaos and can't be allowed to happen; on the other hand Remain is a long shot and which can't be permitted without a public mandate (second vote). In that case all sides are incentvised to re-think the Brexit terms, for example remaining in the Customs Union. If the UK signals a substantive shift in the terms of Brexit, it's likely the A50 can be extended to permit that negotiation.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Spot on. Not goning to happen, unfortunately. Too many loons have been unleashed.

I noticed the further irony too.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

I now think "no deal" is the most likely outcome. I expect a postponement. I think an election and another referendum to be possible and that neither would resolve the muddle; a slightly different selection of Tories would be elected and the referendum would again be inconclusive. Eventually the UK will run out of postponements, not be able to come up with a better deal than May's, and will drift out of the EU.

Right now, electing Trump looks less stupid than voting for Brexit but, of course, he still has a thumb on the "End World" button.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

Well, anything can happen, but No Deal would be detrimental for the EU too, so they are incentvised to extend the negotiation. I think if a soft Brexit cannot be hammered out then Parliament is more likely to opt for the politically uncomfortable No Brexit than the economic catastrophe of No Deal. If you look at the chief proponents of No Deal (and there are very few) they all seem to be snake oil types, there are very few qualified economists or business leaders advocating No Deal.

Re: Three Days to Plan B
 

There are very few qualified economists or business leaders advocating Brexit at all. The whole idea is ridiculous. Given that, it's a matter of how long can Parliament drag out the "not yet Brexit"? I'd guess maybe five years but that's not long enough to come to a consensus in Parliament so I think it has to end in "no deal".