ann m

BBC today The current global recession is likely to be "unusually long and severe, and the recovery sluggish," the International Monetary Fund has warned

BBC yesterday Interest from home-buyers is starting to gain "real momentum", although sales remain low, UK surveyors say.

The Telegraph, April 9 House prices may have less than 10 per cent to fall before the bottom of the market is reached at the beginning of next year, economists have predicted. Property transactions are likely to begin to rise over the coming months, as the combination of low interest rates, lower prices and improving credit conditions attracted buyers back to the market

TORONTO, April 14 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar rose to its highest level in over two months versus the U.S. currency on Tuesday, helped by a combination of firmer oil prices and a rally in overseas equity markets.

Without completely picking holes in any of my choices of sources above (ie, which publication because a) I couldn't be bothered to find all the things I've read in recent weeks, and b) we can all find quotes to fit our views ) who do you believe about the current world financial situation?

Who do you think has the real understanding of what is going on? Would you trust the head of the Bank of England over the CEO of the CBI, for example, over the head of the International Monetary Fund, over the Bank of Canada, over Mr Smith who runs a corner shop off Wimbledon High Street.

I guess the only ones I don't believe are the politicians.

Maybe the 'crisis' is not really affecting you and you don't honestly care that much. Maybe the financial headlines sum up your woes completely?

Who in this world has a really good understanding and who can be believed? Is there anyone at all

Butch Cassidy

Mr Smith sold that shop last week, the new owner is Mr Shah

mandymoochops

I don't really know who or what to believe, ultimately as long as I still have a job and am earning enough to pay what needs to be paid then that will suit me down to the ground.

Maybe I am in the "I don't really care" camp - and no trying to get me into a long discussion about why I don't care - I just don't, find it way to boring to bother about.

Maybe I will care when I live in a cardboard box on the streets (bit like the mouse that never saved for winter fable) but til then - enjoy what you have whilst you have it

ann m

That's probably me, mostly, too mandi.

There's the "we're all doomed" speeches; the "buckle up, it's gonna be a long ride" speeches, and the "get over yourself" speeches

For many people so far, all the talk of doom and gloom doesn't really affect them - as long as they are still employed and can pay the bills, even if it means goodbye to overtime or cutting back on something, then it's OK-ish. But the numbers of newly laid off staff the world over means there must be lots of families or even communities massively feeling hardship. The daily news tells me so.

There are plenty of people on this site, which is a tiny representation of folk of course, who's dreams have been quashed by withdrawn job offers, or who have been fired two months after starting a new job, or who are just unable to find a job fullstop.

I guess I was just musing - my own belief is we (as in humans) will muddle through this financial cock-up just like we have muddled through others. It might read as tougher than other times, but that's probably because 'we' haven't really been through tough times - as in the 20-50 age group - not really (individual circumstances excepted).

tomarense

This is a manufactured recession which has been brought about to facilitate the "New World Order/New Global Order".

Notice the use of this expression, or something very similar, by our esteemed politicians, of all shades, creeds and colours.

The object of the excercise is to lever in more global regulation, concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people (IMF, World Bank). The other objective it the creation of super supra-nationals that will have legal cartel status because the Regulator and the Regulated will be one and the same.

el_richo

Novocastrian

Do you know anything about Gaussian cupola functions?

Steve_P

Absolutely nowt are kid, but I think this might be one.

Complements Wikipedia.

It says the recession will last as long as it does.

Novocastrian

Doing well so far. Now google David Li, and you'll see what I'm on about.

Steve_P

Aaaah soooo master Novo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_X._Li "Recipe for disaster" it says.

Novocastrian

Magnifique!

Novocastrian

Here's a nice article by a friend of mine on the subject...

http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant

JamesM

It's all quite simple really. A recession in the UK is basically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and we have now had 3 quarters of negative growth consecutively. At this stage in the UK I am expecting at the least another 3. There is no doubt therefore that we are in a recession.

Away from the GDP figures in my opinion the best measure of how a country is doing economically is the unemployment stats of a country. They are expecting the UK unemployment to hit 3 to 3.5 million people (currently just passed 2 million) and when that peaks it will be the best measure of when the recession has peaked for the working class man.

Houseprices, Oil Prices and Currency fluctuations can all be potential measures of confidence etc... but ultimately they do not define if we are in a recession or not. They say that interest in the UK housing market has picked up but when you have 28,000 mortgage approvals in a month and 600,000+ properties on the market the supply still somewhat outweighs the demand.

I cannot comment on the Canadian economy. I read the economist weekly but the section on Canada extends at the most to a paragraph or two and I have not lived there for 3/4 years.

JamesM

It says the recession will be as long as a piece of string.

Steve_P

Today's Dilbert Comic.