MarkSurrey

Does anybody know how property prices are moving in Vancouver, compared to with the UK? We have two properties in the UK (one each) and need to decide whether to sell up now and buy in Canada, or wait.

Any opinions, experiences or rants welcome.

Steve_P

New construction house prices have dropped 2.3% January last year to January this year.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/200...ng-prices.html

The resale market most likely reflects this with likely a larger percentage drop.

JonboyE

In my area they are about 10%-12% down from peak, maybe 15% if you need to sell. There is a market but it is very slow. I don't see it getting any better in 2009 - it might even drop some more.

I expect there will be some rebound in late 2010 and it should start to pick up again - but not not like it did in the naughties. I think there will be some bargains around this year.

I am an interested observer, not a real estate professional, so don't do anything on the strength of my opinion.

The4BellsLondon

We are looking to buy in Van at the moment - our Realtor has been v helpful in advising what to offer etc - - pickings are not great at mo - but there are some bargains to be had. . .if you hold yr nerve and low ball offer!

JonboyE

You are in a strong position if you can avoid falling in love with a house. If you can find a motivated seller you could get yourself a great deal.

Frank'n Sense

Hi,

I am a realtor here in Vancouver. We work mostly on the north shore, downtown and the west side. The market is slow in terms of sales and prices are definitely down.

On the other hand there seems to be a lot of interest from buyers for the bargain end of the market - entry level condos, townhouses or homes. We have been very busy. Last weekend I put in two offers on behalf of the same client - both times his offers were rejected as too low. These are for entry level condos and for one of them it was a multiple offer situation (rare but a sign that there is interest in bargain hunting).

If you are looking in this market you should expect to get the place below asking and probably well below. Hard to generalize as market varies quite a bit and certainly now there are not enough sales to give guidance on fair market value. The seller's desire to move may well be the main driving force in getting the price that YOU want.

Final piece of advice. Get a realtor you trust and you will then be able to get as much information to help you as is available.

PS My real estate blog has the real estate stats for Greater Vancouver and my own occasionally lucid thoughts:
<<snip>>

Warmly,

Frank

dboy

Frank, i think you are being overly optimistic. The lower interest rates have probably created a short run on but i doubt it will last. Jobs are beginning to evaporate at an alarming rate (twice the us rate):

http://www.vancouversun.com/Business...456/story.html

Not to mention the demise of the 40 year mortgage (our subprime), no zero down, higher credit check, amount of allowed debt to service mortgage and banks reluctant to lend. This will lead to fewer first time buyers.

Prices are down 19 percent in Vancouver since the peak last may and are expected to fall a further 14 percent this year. I think there will be better deals to be had in the coming months. I would wait. Rents are also coming down due to the run up of 'accidental landlords.'

http://condohype.wordpress.com/2009/...y-home-equity/

House prices in vancouver have been have overpriced for a few years now and the only way is down. When the average wage no longer buys the average home, then fundamentals have to come back in line. This is an issue of sustainability. And all those who say its different here, there's limited land, rich Asians etc, etc will be in for a shock. 95 percent of Vancouver's workforce earn less than 100,000 per year - just who is going to buy these overpriced boxes?

The spring will be very telling when there is a run up of inventory. Sales will likely falter and prices will fall. I personally think we will see a 40 plus percent drop over peak from last may before we see any kind of a correction.

And no this not wishful thinking on my part - i bought in 1993.

Frank'n Sense

Hi,

Thanks for your comments. I understand your arguments and see the logic in them too. My own observations are from what I am seeing in the day to day real estate market - micro rather than macro economics.

My recent experience points to more buyers out there. Many are waiting to see what happens before making the decision to buy. Deciding to buy is a complex mix but includes their confidence, views of where the market is going, job security, mortgage rates, and the value they perceive in the home.

None of us has a crystal ball. The market is undoubtedly readjusting and that was overdue. How much further it has to go is a matter of speculation.

Warmly,

Frank

Iain Mc

I'm also an interested observer, we have a town home and think this is probably a good time to be trading up, what with the interest rates the way they are and so forth.

Yes, we'll undoubtedly take a hit on the value of our place but as we're relatively low in the property food chain anything above us will have come down a good deal more dollars; it's all relative!

We shall see - I don't see conditions changing a whole lot for the rest of this year so we're in no huge hurry.

Frank'n Sense

Hi,

One good thing for people in your situation, from my own experience, is that the higher priced properties are seeing larger drops in the sold price than at the other end of the market. This could mean that if you sell your place at a discount you could get a bigger discount on your purchase.

Again this is what I am seeing in my market.

Warmly,

Frank

Frank'n Sense

This morning's Vancouver Sun has an article that suggests buyers are poised to take advantage of lower prices and lower interest rates.
http://tinyurl.com/cvakw3

I quote a small part of the article - where Cameron Muir the economist for the BCREA talks about the factors that are encouraging buyers to look at the market.

"He [Cameron Muir] said the benchmark price for a two-bedroom condo in Metro Vancouver was $334,602 in January, 11.5 per cent less than the $378,336 the same condo would have sold for 12 months earlier. A typical posted five-year fixed-term mortgage stood at 5.79 per cent in January, much lower than a similar mortgage rate of 7.39 per cent the previous January.

Therefore, he said, a condo with a 10-per-cent down payment (on a 25-year amortization) would have resulted in a monthly mortgage payment of $1,890 this January, nearly $600 less than the January 2008 mortgage payment of $2,468 (property taxes, maintenance fees and mortgage insurance fees not included).

On top of that, he said, there’s upward pressure on rents with the same two-bedroom condo renting in October 2008 for about $1,507 a month — a five-per-cent increase from October 2007."

In my earlier posts I mentioned my impression, from my own experience within my market, and how it seemed that the market was becoming more active. It seems that I am not alone in having that impression.

We will see what the next few months bring in terms of sales and prices.

Warmly,

Frank

Iain Mc

We've certainly observed a few houses shift very quickly in the last week or two (one or two open weekends and then sold). These have been the ones that have been presented well and have had attractive - realistic - list prices. I think the mortgage rates have a lot to do with it.

Plus, at the moment, there's still properties out there that were renovated last summer, just too late for the market, and have been sitting empty over the Winter. These sellers in particular have a lot of motivation to get such places off the books as they could use the capital. This sort of thing won't be around all year - no-one's renovating now! - so this is one area we're particularly looking at.

dboy

Cameron MUIR is a spin doctor who always try to put a shine on everything, only a year ago he was talking about how RE will go up and up and how solid the economy was:|

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBDDCweoMQ0

or then there's the "strong fundamentals"

http://cheaprealty.net/videos/cameron-muir

Its because of so called experts like him that we are in this mess. Canada, is not different from the rest of the world.

Melmouth

There is no magic to this: In a market in which demand outstrips supply (Vancouver, London) prices will be governed by the irresponsibility of banks and interest rates. Realtors will always encourage inflation.
In this situation the only moderator is unemployment, which usually has little effect on house prices when under 10% of the work force.

So what's Vancouver in for now?

Banks are regaining confidence = inflation
Realtors are doing the usual = inflation
Interest rates are low = inflation
Unemployment has yet to hit 10% = no price moderation

That's the current situation. Longer term I expect inflation to force interest rates up and in the face of that Vancouver's prices will have to fall. Unemployment in Canada may not reach 10% as the country, along with Brazil, is one of those better placed to face the world's next bout of anxiety over it's burgeoning population.
When is this inflation going to start to manifest itself? I'd guess at the latest during 2011.

MB-Realtor

Realtors reflect the market, they don't control it (if only we did ).

The only way a market can be influenced is by the people who buy (not the seller either, even in a "sellers market" it is the buyer(s) who are competing against themselves to drive up the price).

Real Estate is classic "Supply and Demand" economics.