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-   -   Just when you'd thought...... (https://britishexpats.com/forum/maple-leaf-98/just-when-youd-thought-903119/)

dave_j Sep 9th 2017 5:46 am

Just when you'd thought......
 
BREXIT..
Yepp, it's not gone away, in fact it's become the poker game of the decade.
But it's been too quiet on here recently. Far too quiet.
Like most divorce arguments, it's all about money and the UK has at last realised this. Davis could become my hero if he does nothing else but keep poking Barnier and the rest of the EU gravy slurpers in the wallet.

Shard Sep 9th 2017 9:25 am

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 
Money, as in the 'Brexit bill' is the absolute least important issue. The fact that the UK government is fixated on it only proves their incompetence.

mikelincs Sep 9th 2017 9:33 am

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12334638)
Money, as in the 'Brexit bill' is the absolute least important issue. The fact that the UK government is fixated on it only proves their incompetence.

The UK government needs to realise that they are one against 27, and they will NOT get their own way, the EU has to do nothing and just let the UK leave without any of the things they want to agree on, so the UK government needs to soften it's stance and really do some negotiating.

Shard Sep 9th 2017 9:48 am

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by mikelincs (Post 12334644)
The UK government needs to realise that they are one against 27, and they will NOT get their own way, the EU has to do nothing and just let the UK leave without any of the things they want to agree on, so the UK government needs to soften it's stance and really do some negotiating.

I honestly don't know what is happening. Davis is smart enough to realise that, but I think he is simply pursuing some kind of political path, and waiting for events to overtake his efforts. He's not ideological in the way Rees Moggs is for example. May is incompetent beyond words, a total embarrassment to the country. Why the Tories haven't jettisoned her yet is a mystery. On current progress the cliff edge is slowly coming in to view. Hopefully we will be given a second chance to consider isolating ourselves in light of better information and fewer lies.

Almost Canadian Sep 9th 2017 3:43 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by mikelincs (Post 12334644)
The UK government needs to realise that they are one against 27, and they will NOT get their own way, the EU has to do nothing and just let the UK leave without any of the things they want to agree on, so the UK government needs to soften it's stance and really do some negotiating.

Dream on. The closer the date of leaving approaches, the more countries like Germany will realise how much they have to lose too and the parties will move closer to one another.

The EU, at the moment, appears to be simply holding out in the hope that the remainers in the UK will be able to persuade the others that Brexit shouldn't happen. That is precisely the reason why they are adopting the whole, "we will not negotiate on the trade stuff until X and Y have moved sufficiently towards agreement." There is nothing in any treaty that provides for this they are simply acting as a bully. That won't be able to continue forever.

dave_j Sep 9th 2017 4:14 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian (Post 12334819)
Dream on. The closer the date of leaving approaches, the more countries like Germany will realise how much they have to lose too and the parties will move closer to one another.

Absolutely.

Remember the thumbscrews they used on Greece and the damaging farce that greek bailouts have been. Everything they do is designed profit the northern states and Bruxelles, far from being the cuddly French Poodle, the EU is a German Rottweiler yapping and baring it's teeth at anyone who dares step out of line.

Davis is serving the UK well simply to stand his ground against the deluge of propaganda and pressure, both at home and abroad, and the sooner the rest of the UK realise this and support him fully the better.

Shard Sep 9th 2017 4:34 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian (Post 12334819)
Dream on. The closer the date of leaving approaches, the more countries like Germany will realise how much they have to lose too and the parties will move closer to one another.

The EU, at the moment, appears to be simply holding out in the hope that the remainers in the UK will be able to persuade the others that Brexit shouldn't happen. That is precisely the reason why they are adopting the whole, "we will not negotiate on the trade stuff until X and Y have moved sufficiently towards agreement." There is nothing in any treaty that provides for this they are simply acting as a bully. That won't be able to continue forever.

That may well be the case, but you wonder why Davis and Co are falling for it, if indeed they are. The Brexit bill is not a significant amount in relation to the enormous change that is being contemplated, they're talking about 30, 60, 100 billion, and a good portion of that number will be mutually agreeable anyway (Davis already admits that). So they are messing about for the sake of 10 or billions, why? The general public barely differentiates between a billion and a million, and few have any idea of the size of overall GDP, so Davis would be far better off to simply agree a figure and move on. Even if it's 100 billion, it's shouldn't be a deal breaker if they (mad Brexiteers) really want to Brexit. It would be subject to the final exit anyway. Similarly, they could work out an arrangement with Ireland/NI and EU/UK citizens rights. It's not that complicated, and, ironically, it is the Brexiteers that were screaming that it is not complicated at all prior to the vote.

If the EU is using these three issues as a sticking point, it doesn't make sense to me why the government doesn't solve them with expediency and move on to the complexities of trade/movement. It suggests the government is either incompetent or complicit.

Almost Canadian Sep 9th 2017 4:44 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12334851)
That may well be the case, but you wonder why Davis and Co are falling for it, if indeed they are. The Brexit bill is not a significant amount in relation to the enormous change that is being contemplated, they're talking about 30, 60, 100 billion, and a good portion of that number will be mutually agreeable anyway (Davis already admits that). So they are messing about for the sake of 10 or billions, why? The general public barely differentiates between a billion and a million, and few have any idea of the size of overall GDP, so Davis would be far better off to simply agree a figure and move on. Even if it's 100 billion, it's shouldn't be a deal breaker if they (mad Brexiteers) really want to Brexit. It would be subject to the final exit anyway. Similarly, they could work out an arrangement with Ireland/NI and EU/UK citizens rights. It's not that complicated, and, ironically, it is the Brexiteers that were screaming that it is not complicated at all prior to the vote.

If the EU is using these three issues as a sticking point, it doesn't make sense to me why the government doesn't solve them with expediency and move on to the complexities of trade/movement. It suggests the government is either incompetent or complicit.

From what I have seen from this side of the Atlantic, the rhetoric is coming from the EU by The use of phrases such as "The UK will have to do better" & "We cannot move on until".

The figure bandied about by the EU regarding the divorce bill doesn't appear to be based on anything credible but clearly aids their attempts to persuade the UK that Brexit will be painful. The UK taxpayer will be best served by the UK agreeing to pay what it ought to, and nothing more. You appear to want to play directly into the EU's hands, so their tactics appear to be working on you.

I agree that those 3 issues should be capable of being dealt with relatively easily but the EU, to the media at least, appears to be saying "No" to everything unless it is what they want. I couldn't believe what I read on the BBC's page recently regarding the NI/Ireland border. The EU appears to be delusional.

As I said above, there is no reason why the issue of trade cannot be discussed now, but the EU is acting like a spoiled child and will continue to do so until their position starts to affect it, as it will.

Shard Sep 9th 2017 5:04 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian (Post 12334860)
From what I have seen from this side of the Atlantic, the rhetoric is coming from the EU "The UK will have to do better" & "We cannot move on until".

The figure bandied about by the EU regarding the divorce bill doesn't appear to be based on anything credible but clearly aids their attempts to persuade the UK that Brexit will be painful. The UK taxpayer will be best served by the UK agreeing to pay what it ought to, and nothing more. You appear to want to play directly into the EU's hands, so their tactics appear to be working on you.

I agree that those 3 issues should be capable of being dealt with relatively easily but the EU, to the media at least, appears to be saying "No" to everything without unless it is what they want. I couldn't believe what I read on the BBC's page recently regarding the NI/Ireland border. The EU appears to be delusional.

As I said above, there is no reason why the issue of trade cannot be discussed now, but the EU is acting like a spoiled child and will continue to do so until their position starts to affect it, as it will.

Davis is portraying the EU as a spoilt child, and it seems many Brits are believing it. The EU demands may well have an ulterior motive, but they are not particularly unreasonable either. Davis is claiming that the EU is demanding outlandish sums and just expects Britain to pay it, but Britain want's to check it line by line? Do you really buy that simplistic tripe? We're not negotiating a divorce on Jerry Springer. Obviously both sides have detailed costed analyses on residual liabilities, but that is not the story we are being fed...we are being told they are trying to stitch us up, those big bad mean faceless EU bogeymen. It's amazing so many fall for it. Ireland, it's obvious, no border whatever the cost. Citizens rights, are more problematic, as they tie directly in to FOM, and that relates to the bigger Brexit question itself. In fact it's Britain that is the spoilt child, believing the entire continent revolves around it's own idiosyncrasies.

Almost Canadian Sep 9th 2017 6:13 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12334865)
Davis is portraying the EU as a spoilt child, and it seems many Brits are believing it. The EU demands may well have an ulterior motive, but they are not particularly unreasonable either. Davis is claiming that the EU is demanding outlandish sums and just expects Britain to pay it, but Britain want's to check it line by line? Do you really buy that simplistic tripe? We're not negotiating a divorce on Jerry Springer. Obviously both sides have detailed costed analyses on residual liabilities, but that is not the story we are being fed...we are being told they are trying to stitch us up, those big bad mean faceless EU bogeymen. It's amazing so many fall for it. Ireland, it's obvious, no border whatever the cost. Citizens rights, are more problematic, as they tie directly in to FOM, and that relates to the bigger Brexit question itself. In fact it's Britain that is the spoilt child, believing the entire continent revolves around it's own idiosyncrasies.

Ok. I don't see it they way you do but I don't have a dog in this fight and I believe that leaving the EU means leaving the single market in its current state. I believe that the UK will want to achieve the best trade deal possible but, if doing so means the free movement of workers, I don't believe that will happen as the UK will be in a worse position than had it remained in the EU.

I have to admit that I don't know how much the UK pays to the EU each year. But 100 billion seems to be a huge amount and, if it is so straightforward to calculate the amount, why haven't Labour et al stated how much should be paid?

Edit: It appears that the UK pays around 13 billion to the EU each year. Quite why the UK should be paying almost 8 times that amount after leaving is beyond me.

Shard Sep 9th 2017 7:07 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian (Post 12334907)
Ok. I don't see it they way you do but I don't have a dog in this fight and I believe that leaving the EU means leaving the single market in its current state. I believe that the UK will want to achieve the best trade deal possible but, if doing so means the free movement of workers, I don't believe that will happen as the UK will be in a worse position than had it remained in the EU.

I have to admit that I don't know how much the UK pays to the EU each year. But 100 billion seems to be a huge amount and, if it is so straightforward to calculate the amount, why haven't Labour et al stated how much should be paid?

Edit: It appears that the UK pays around 13 billion to the EU each year. Quite why the UK should be paying almost 8 times that amount after leaving is beyond me.

Well 100B is the top end figure that someone has bandied about, nobody yet knows what the realistic figures are as neither side has bothered to set out their numbers. The amount relates to ongoing long term investment commitments, it will all be set in treaty law (as you can imagine); no jiggery pokery but obviously prone to some interpretation.

dave_j Sep 10th 2017 4:01 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12334865)
Davis is portraying the EU as a spoilt child, and it seems many Brits are believing it. The EU demands may well have an ulterior motive, but they are not particularly unreasonable either.

They believe it because EU behaviour strongly suggests that it's true.

I agree that EU demands aren't unreasonable.. if you happen to be Germany or France or.. well anyone who wants the UK to continue to fund the EU slush fund.

But fortunately the UK population have finally seen through the rhetoric and realise that Mr Barnier and his ilk have no clothes... I know that this is a frightening, even terrifying vision especially if you extend this to Merkel.

The argument that continuing to fund EU profligacy simply because the EU won't have it any other way is very much like the school bully who steals sweets saying he'll make your life unbearable if you don't hand over the loot. This leads to only one outcome.. more bullying. Standing up to bullies always carries risk but it's the right thing to do.

The EU, as the living EEC has mutated into a putrifying, self serving, blood sucking vampire and Brexit is only the first of many silver bullets that will bring it to heel.

Novocastrian Sep 10th 2017 4:11 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by dave_j (Post 12335408)
They believe it because EU behaviour strongly suggests that it's true.

I agree that EU demands aren't unreasonable.. if you happen to be Germany or France or.. well anyone who wants the UK to continue to fund the EU slush fund.

But fortunately the UK population have finally seen through the rhetoric and realise that Mr Barnier and his ilk have no clothes... I know that this is a frightening, even terrifying vision especially if you extend this to Merkel.

The argument that continuing to fund EU profligacy simply because the EU won't have it any other way is very much like the school bully who steals sweets saying he'll make your life unbearable if you don't hand over the loot. This leads to only one outcome.. more bullying. Standing up to bullies always carries risk but it's the right thing to do.

The EU, as the living EEC has mutated into a putrifying, self serving, blood sucking vampire and Brexit is only the first of many silver bullets that will bring it to heel.

Even by your miserable standards that is astounding gibberish.

dave_j Sep 10th 2017 4:37 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by Novocastrian (Post 12335414)
Even by your miserable standards that is astounding gibberish.

I note that you direct your considerable intellect towards addressing the issue in question and genuinely seek to engage in the discussion rather than shovelling out pointless trivia.

Novocastrian Sep 10th 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Just when you'd thought......
 

Originally Posted by dave_j (Post 12335408)
They believe it because EU behaviour strongly suggests that it's true.

In what way(s) is the the EU behaving as a spoilt chid? Barnier had/has a clear negotiation position authorised by all 27 governments.


I agree that EU demands aren't unreasonable.. if you happen to be Germany or France or.. well anyone who wants the UK to continue to fund the EU slush fund.
To adopt your style: What is this mysterious slush fund of which you speak?


But fortunately the UK population have finally seen through the rhetoric and realise that Mr Barnier and his ilk have no clothes... I know that this is a frightening, even terrifying vision especially if you extend this to Merkel.
Mr. Barnier (and his ilk) are extremely well dressed. It's May (and her ilk) who are stark staring naked.


The argument that continuing to fund EU profligacy simply because the EU won't have it any other way is very much like the school bully who steals sweets saying he'll make your life unbearable if you don't hand over the loot. This leads to only one outcome.. more bullying. Standing up to bullies always carries risk but it's the right thing to do.
I don't know where to start with that. Gibberish.


The EU, as the living EEC has mutated into a putrifying, self serving, blood sucking vampire and Brexit is only the first of many silver bullets that will bring it to heel.
Or that. You should really visit a doctor you know.


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