Latest is that the chances of Merkel surviving as Chancellor are knife edge 50-50.

The CDU/CSU party (Merkel's) seem likely to get most votes, but their coalition party's (the FDP) contribution is essential if the current government will be able to continue. The FDP has dropped from 14% in the last federal election to 5.1% in the last poll I've seen.

Now, under the German system (like Israel's) if you get less than 5%, you get no seats in the Bundestag. (There's a lesson here for Nick Clegg, the LibDem's are going to be wiped out next time, oops).

If the FDP fail, there could either be an SDP/Linke/Green majority or (since the SPD don't have much truck with die Linke), a "Government of National Unity" or "Grand Coalition" between the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

I may be alone in this on this forum, but I'll be listening to Deutschewelle online from about noon tomorrow.

Lol you make me laugh. I won't be listening to Deutschewelle as it drives me nuts but I'll be checking the ZDF/ARD online. I am not the biggest fan of Merkel but I don't like Steinbrueck very much. The Linke is a defo not my cup of tea and always reminds me of the PDS and the DDR and I really can't stand Claudia Roth. So I guess Merkel is the better evil

Have fun tomorrow

ZDF's headquarters are in Mainz, where I used to live.

Ironically, Merkel reminds me of the DDR where she grew up. (She's a bit creepy) It's probably a man thing, but I quite like Claudia Roth (and her party's policies). Steinbruek has arrived on the political scene since my time there and I'll admit to having no informed opinion. Of course I never had a vote in Germany, but if I had I would regularly have voted SPD.

Deutschewelle is a rather like BBC World Service on long wave, IMHO, and therefore a good thing.

Deutschewelle reminds me of my dad listening to the news when we were on holidays lol. I always favoured the SPD and do like some of their ideas but I don't think they are economically feasible and just there to get the votes. Merkel reminds me of the Kohl era and that wasn't good. I still could vote via letter as I still have citizenship but I chose not too. I have been out of that country for so long that I think the people that live there should make a decision on whom they want to be chancellor. I just find Claudia Roth annoying and never liked the connections of some of the Gruene politicians with the former RAF terrorists.
Will see who's gonna win. CDU/SPD coalition doesn't work very well so I hope it'll be one or the other with their own coalition partners.

Btw how did you like Mainz? Ever been to the carnival? One of my friends from school works for ZDF now. I was born in Regensburg (about 45mins North/East of Munich). Have been in Torquay, Paris and near St.Louis, MO for a bit then I moved to Stuttgart, then to Hamburg, then Manchester and now Almonte/(Ottawa). Restless soul I am ;-)

Not following it, I'm afraid. However, I was interested to learn on the news yesterday that Germany does not yet have a minimum wage. Apparently, the Greeks have been heading there in search of much needed work, and then cannot get a survivable wage. And if this is the case, and a minimum wage were introduced, the much vaunted German productivity has more than rising electricity costs to be worried about.

Yes, I have been following this for a few weeks now, and would worry for the future of Europe if Merkel goes. Not so much a matter of Merkel and her policies, but she is seen as a strong and stabilising force at the European helm...a role Hollande would be woeful at. Europe needs a time of quiet to heal and gather its forces for a hopeful resurgence. I am crossing everything for Merkel

I liked Mainz a great deal thanks. Yes, we often went to Carnival, loads of fun, especially with kids. I was always amazed by the way that the locals would get completely sh*tfaced on Rosenmontag and be back to somber normal on the Tuesday. I thought it a real insight into the German character (of which I approve in general).

I also had a friend (a Scottish ginger) with whom I played squash and who worked at ZDF as a cameraman/technician.

it looks like Angela is winning this one, she might even get an absolute majority with the FDP, (her former coalition partner) getting kicked out. I didn't vote, since the voting process for expats was a little too much hassle for me, but I probably would have voted for CDU for the first time in my life this year (I can't believe I am saying it). I guess , like me a lot of me ex - fellow - countrypeople rather prefer the status quo with "Mutti" than a new unknown , not very trustworthy Peer Steinbruck as a leader.

Exit polls according to ARD...


CDU 42.0 %; SPD 26.0%; FDP 4.7%; Greens 8.0%; Linke 8.5%; AfD 4.9%, Piraten 2.5%

Oh dear FDP that is something to feel ashamed for. I am surprised that the "Union" gets that many votes but then again Steinbrueck managed to step into every "Fettnaepfchen" he could find.

Slow learners in Germany?

No, that's the Irish.

Yea they're the ultimate EU rookies.

Fragmented left lets in the right?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...and-eating-it/

That's one take on it, but not a very sophisticated one. The SPD are centrist-left while die Linke are fairly hard left, a rebranded DDR Communist party. The Greens are also lumped in as left, but they're the greens so not really.

An SPD-Linke-Gruenen coalition would mathematically have a (very slim) majority but would be unlikely to survive for any time at all.

It's more that the FDP have finally been exposed as incompetent hypocrites and have lost almost all of their voters either to the CDU/CSU or to the AfD, a fringe group on the right who are basically single issue crazies wanting Germany to withdraw from the common currency.

Neither the FDP or the AfD reached the 5% threshold so neither are represented in the next Bundestag. That's why Merkel's a touch short of a straight majority. Nothing to do with the "divided left".