ralphster

I thought I'd start up an on-going currency exchange rate thread for people interested in discussing the reasons behind the fluctuating exchange rate. As we are closing in on 1.70 CDN, it's the highest we've seen in 3.5 years.

See: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=CAD&view=5Y

I guess it depends on whether you have money in the UK or have moved it all over as to what you want to see happen!

Do you think this reverse of the seeming constant downward trend is a blip, or could we be in for a longer-term change?

I think there are three things which may have caused the recent reversing the downward trend:

1) The US Debt Ceiling issue spooked the markets, and with CAD so tied to the USD, people started to see GBP as a safe place to put their money. It is more than just the USD rate however, as since Apr 13, CDN has fallen 10% against GBP whilst USD has only weakened 6.8%.

2) Positive news coming out of the UK economy

3) Negative news coming out of the CAN economy

Any other reasons?

In an earlier thread someone mentioned that the Syria issue and the pushing up of oil prices has had an effect, but I've noticed gas falling 12c at the pumps over the last few weeks and this hasn't affected the exchange rate. This might be a too simplistic view?

So what do you think?

- Will CAN keep weakening?

- Is the world waiting for when the US Debt ceiling is reviewed again early next year?

- Could the rate massively swing if the US don't raise their debt ceiling?

- Will the strength of CDN in natural resource (oil etc) always mean the GBP is going to weak in the long run?

Also, if you have any good "market commentary" web sites that specifically discuss CAN vs GBP, please post up links in this thread too.