Novocastrian

It is probable that many thousands did in fact die.

scrubbedexpat142

And you can lay that solely at VW's door? Seriously?

scrubbedexpat091

January at the earliest for European regulators, test flights scheduled for mid December.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKBN1X021S

Novocastrian

I don't think you understand the effects of air pollution on population health. The VW diesel engines (including Audi, Seat and all the other VW daughters were emitting up to 20x as much NO2 as reported following the fake emissions testing they adopted.

Sorry, this is a very long read, but worthwhile if you have the stamina. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...ity-and-health

scrubbedexpat142

All ICE vehicles pollute, some more than others.

Novocastrian

Christ, you read that quickly!

scrubbedexpat142

I haven't read it - simply because it was offered in support of a contention that is ludicrous (that VW is solely liable for thousands of deaths).

Novocastrian

The kernel you would discover if you did read it is the WHO estimate that 4.6m people/year die prematurely because of polluted air, mostly from vehicle emissions.

Given the VW group's share of the global market and the fact that their diesel vehicles were, as a result of fraud, emitting 20X as much pollution as allowed by law for several years, I think you might agree that "several thousands" is a conservative estimate.

scrubbedexpat142

VW market share in USA = 3.7%.

I am not suggesting that VW (or others) should be let off the hook, I am suggesting that, if Boeing are found liable, the "punishment" for 346 deaths by direct cause should be proportionally severe.

I guess you feel otherwise.

Novocastrian

No, I don't feel otherwise. I'm just pointing out that VW's $30 billion (which you mentioned as a comparator) was inadequate "proportionally".

scrubbedexpat142

Well if you can do a calculation that demonstrates precisely "death by VW pollution" (as opposed to other ICE makes) then we can arrive at proportional results.

Meanwhile I wait, with bated breath.

Novocastrian

You can breathe out now:

WHO premature deaths due to air pollution estimate 4.6 million /year
Deaths due to NOx pollution global estimate (same source) 2.5 million /yr

Total global NOx annual emissions (all source) = 55 TgN/yr (Teragrams expressed as grams of N) IGPCC.
Contribution from Fossil Fuel Burning = 33 TgN/yr (IGPCC)
Contriibution of diesel and petrol vehicle emissions to total fossil fuel burning = 29% or 9.57 TgN/yr

VW group global market share of LDV (Light Duty Vehicles) 10-15% (2005-2015 average 12%)

Global diesel powered LDV = 27% so 2.6 TgN/yr

VW group contribution of annual diesel NOx emissions = 12% of 2.6 TgN/yr = 0.31 TgN/yr IF those vehicles had been within legal emissions regulations, but they weren't, they were AT LEAST 10X higher emitters of NOx. so in reality VW diesel emissions were > 3 TgN/yr.

Now go back to the 55 Tg Global emissions from all sources and we have VW emitting ~5.4% of the global total per year

5.4% of the premature deaths due to NOx pollution is 108,000.

I'm quite happy to treat that as an upper limit result, largely because I have a laptop not a CRAY on my desk, but I'm certainly sticking to my first estimate of "several thousands".

Your serve.

scrubbedexpat142

Advantage Expatrick!

You cannot pin any one (or more) death(s) solely on VW!

Novocastrian

I just did. Using I admit crude global averages which are never a good idea, but are perfectly good order of magnitude estimation tools.

You don't by any chance drive a pre-2015 VW Golf Diesel do you?.

scrubbedexpat142

I have never even driven, let alone owned a VW.

Novo, your point about ICE pollution is well met - however you are missing my point, my suggestion, about the likely treatment of Boeing, in & by, the USA (in the event of liability being established).