UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Jan 11th 2009, 1:10 pm
#61
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Well, I have read somewhere on this forum a German guy was complaining about the long processing time and few others were agreeing with him, despite LR country etc. Well, in Europe only British and Irish visas are granted quickly, rest take a bit of time. Unless the CSL thing really expedites things, we are still looking at 10-11 months wait for you, though I sincerely hope it happens faster. All the best.
Jan 11th 2009, 1:15 pm
#62
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
I have dont yet my application...i am planning to do it online...please enlighten about the medicals report will it be online too or paperbased
Jan 11th 2009, 1:18 pm
#63
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Since no visa can be reported during the weekend, let me do something else today (helps with the waiting!). I have just looked at the Migration Program Statistics page of DIAC website (http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statist...ts/migrant.htm). A few interesting observations:
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
Thoughful analysis and calculations. Then should I be expecting grant within Feb, 2009? Mine is stni 137 applied on end of Aug 07 from HR country. No sign of CO yet. Shuld I assume the background check already completed before Co allocation?
Thanks a lot in advance.
Jan 11th 2009, 1:26 pm
#64
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
As an applicant, you need to do the following:
1. Print the relevant forms from DIAC website. DIAC will send you links to these forms after you lodge your online application.
2. Fill the forms and attach photos as needed.
3. Set up appointment with panel doctors closest to your location. If you let me know which country/city you live, I can also help. There is also a list on DIAC website.
4. Doctor will do a routine physical check up, do x-ray and take blood and urine sample. Your job is done here.
The doctor may charge you differently if you ask him to post vs. courier the report.
Hope it clarifies things for you. Good luck with your application.
Jan 11th 2009, 1:36 pm
#65
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Hi Caliburn,
Thoughful analysis and calculations. Then should I be expecting grant within Feb, 2009? Mine is stni 137 applied on end of Aug 07 from HR country. No sign of CO yet. Shuld I assume the background check already completed before Co allocation?
Thanks a lot in advance.
Thoughful analysis and calculations. Then should I be expecting grant within Feb, 2009? Mine is stni 137 applied on end of Aug 07 from HR country. No sign of CO yet. Shuld I assume the background check already completed before Co allocation?
Thanks a lot in advance.
Looking at your timeline, there is a high probability that you will get your visa in February 2009. I will keep my fingers crossed for you as well.
Jan 11th 2009, 3:35 pm
#66
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
This is a bit of grey area that keeps me guessingn all the time. Are checks done before CO allocation or after? My best guess is that its done after CO allocation. Why? CO needs to check first that you have sent all the documents for a complete file which can be sent for checking, right? Otherwise, after CO allocation, he/she may find that one piece of document is missing and then you will be requested to provide that piece and it will again be sent out for checking? A bit counter-intuitive. On the other hand, all checks may not be done for all candidates. I may be wrong but I guess they pick random samples for certain types of verification.
Looking at your timeline, there is a high probability that you will get your visa in February 2009. I will keep my fingers crossed for you as well.
Looking at your timeline, there is a high probability that you will get your visa in February 2009. I will keep my fingers crossed for you as well.
, You are doing a great task buddy in answering queries of people who all are worried due to one reason or other. It needs to be remembered by all that all aspirants should have patience.God Bless all.
Regards
Sanjay
Jan 11th 2009, 3:59 pm
#67
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Re: Unofficial Visa Count
Thanks for continuing along with this update. I know it was a lifeline for myself and many others. Lilsweets did a great job too.
Keep up the great work, Caliburn!
Jan 11th 2009, 6:18 pm
#68
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Re: Unofficial Visa Count
Thanks Catherine. I love doing these updates, especially when people find it useful.
Jan 11th 2009, 7:07 pm
#69
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Jan 11th 2009, 7:24 pm
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Since no visa can be reported during the weekend, let me do something else today (helps with the waiting!). I have just looked at the Migration Program Statistics page of DIAC website (http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statist...ts/migrant.htm). A few interesting observations:
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
I mean that in the nicest possible way I really do...but imho I don't think any amount of analysis can make sense of the wait times. We applied after many other 475s yet we have a case officer. We are LR country & MODL (also CSL altho this came into play after we got our CO) but so are others that we have jumped ahead of. I also know of at least one 475 that applied almost a month after us and got grant before Christmas. DIAC seems to be split into Regions as well & within each region things move at different speeds, so that would skew any analysis I would have thought. I'm sure they do have a system in place for allocation but not one whose logic can be deciphered from the outside! But this waiting is so horrible I know and folks must do what they can to get thru it and deal with it best they can. Having your life on hold is awful! Like many others we've jumped thru hoops & filled out forms & waited painfully for each little step to be completed for over 2 years now. Sometimes it's hard to stay sane! I hope you get a CO really really soon
Jan 11th 2009, 7:49 pm
#71
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Since no visa can be reported during the weekend, let me do something else today (helps with the waiting!). I have just looked at the Migration Program Statistics page of DIAC website (http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statist...ts/migrant.htm). A few interesting observations:
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
Jan 11th 2009, 10:32 pm
#72
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Since no visa can be reported during the weekend, let me do something else today (helps with the waiting!). I have just looked at the Migration Program Statistics page of DIAC website (http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statist...ts/migrant.htm). A few interesting observations:
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
1) DIAC has the capacity to issue 534 skilled visas per day! It's planned visa skilled visa grant for 2009 is/was 133,500. I'm assuming 250 working days in a year. Last year, DIAC issued 434 skilled visas on average per day, thats totaling 108,540 visas in 2008 plan year.
2) DIAC can issue visas to all state/territory nominated applicants in 9 working days! This year priority will be given to state/territory sponsored applicants. However, their planned number in 2009 is only 9,350. Assuming that half of these people already got their visas during July-Dec 2008, we are left with only 4,675 state/territory nominated applicants. If you divide this number with DIAC's visa grant capacity per day of 534 above, it works out to be 9 working days!
3) Point 2 above leads to additional conclusion that DIAC will start wroking on applicants on Critical Skills List from late January 2009, perhaps the 4th week.
4) If you compare the average visa grant of 434 per day in 2008 with that of planned capacity of 534 per day in 2009, you will see an exact increase of 100 per day. Well, this round number can be a coincidence or it can be part of DIAC's planned capacity increase as well.
Do the above make any sense to anyone? Are you interested in more analysis like this?
Also, a visa application will automatically be assessed against the criteria for each visa subclass that belongs to the specific class of visa you have applied for. As subclass 175 and 176 are of the same Visa Class, any application for a Skilled - Sponsored Independent (Class VE, subclass 176) will also be assessed under a Skilled - Independent (Class VE, subclass 175). So there is no way to acurately predict beforehand how many 'cross-overs' there are, and more importantly - how much time is involved with the assessment per visa.
Statistics are fascinating tho, and if you want to analyse some short term trends (quarterly) it might be interesting to include figures from http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statist...statistics.htm These figures reflect the number of applications lodged in the specific period, and whether or not an agent was used. The numbers for 2008 Q4 are not published yet, and of course in a few months 2009 Q1 will be quite interesting as it should show the effects of the new prioritizing.
Last edited by eurosyl; Jan 11th 2009 at 11:06 pm. Reason: clarification of given figures
Jan 12th 2009, 12:22 am
#73
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Having the look at the statistics
See Image attached
So in theory the projected visa allocation for the current program is
Independent skilled 56%
Employer Sponsored 21%
State/Territory Sponsored 7%
Family Sponsored 10.7%
Business 5%
and according to The Minister's announcement on the 17th December
The current target of 133 500 places in the Skilled Migration Program will
remain as a ceiling.
The Government will keep the program under review through the remainder of
2008-09. The Government will therefore retain the ability to cap the number of
grants below the original target if necessary.
Around 80 per cent of employer-sponsored visas are granted to people who are
already living and working in Australia on temporary visas. Fast-tracking the
grant of these visas will provide greater certainty to employers and ensure the
program does not contribute to local unemployment.
Encouraging employer sponsored permanent visas
The Government will prioritize and improve the processing of employer sponsored
visas.
These visas have very good employment outcomes for the migrant and are
directly responding to the skill needs of industry.
In addition, 80 per cent of employer-sponsored permanent visas are granted to
people already here, almost all of them on a Subclass 457 visa. They have
proven their skills, have an employer who wants them and are keen to remain in
the country.
For these reasons the Government is very supportive of employers using the
sponsored permanent visa and will ensure that the processing of applications is
streamlined as much as possible.
The Government will be encouraging employers with Subclass 457 visa holders
in jobs that cannot be filled locally to consider sponsoring those workers for a
permanent visa.
so of the 21% for employer sponsored 16.8% are onshore ie. applicants already in Australia and 4.2% would be coming with sponsorship from outside Australia.
of the 56% for independent I estimate that maybe 6 % maybe qualify for CSL.
So with ENS, State/Territory, and CSL. about 34% qualify for priority under the new rules
And I dont think that the 16.8% onshore ENS is processed at Adelaide
Bear in mind all this is only theory.
See Image attached
So in theory the projected visa allocation for the current program is
Independent skilled 56%
Employer Sponsored 21%
State/Territory Sponsored 7%
Family Sponsored 10.7%
Business 5%
and according to The Minister's announcement on the 17th December
The current target of 133 500 places in the Skilled Migration Program will
remain as a ceiling.
The Government will keep the program under review through the remainder of
2008-09. The Government will therefore retain the ability to cap the number of
grants below the original target if necessary.
Around 80 per cent of employer-sponsored visas are granted to people who are
already living and working in Australia on temporary visas. Fast-tracking the
grant of these visas will provide greater certainty to employers and ensure the
program does not contribute to local unemployment.
Encouraging employer sponsored permanent visas
The Government will prioritize and improve the processing of employer sponsored
visas.
These visas have very good employment outcomes for the migrant and are
directly responding to the skill needs of industry.
In addition, 80 per cent of employer-sponsored permanent visas are granted to
people already here, almost all of them on a Subclass 457 visa. They have
proven their skills, have an employer who wants them and are keen to remain in
the country.
For these reasons the Government is very supportive of employers using the
sponsored permanent visa and will ensure that the processing of applications is
streamlined as much as possible.
The Government will be encouraging employers with Subclass 457 visa holders
in jobs that cannot be filled locally to consider sponsoring those workers for a
permanent visa.
so of the 21% for employer sponsored 16.8% are onshore ie. applicants already in Australia and 4.2% would be coming with sponsorship from outside Australia.
of the 56% for independent I estimate that maybe 6 % maybe qualify for CSL.
So with ENS, State/Territory, and CSL. about 34% qualify for priority under the new rules
And I dont think that the 16.8% onshore ENS is processed at Adelaide
Bear in mind all this is only theory.
Last edited by man_called_Horse; Jan 12th 2009 at 12:38 am. Reason: mis calc figures
Jan 12th 2009, 6:31 am
#74
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
Sounds like you're starting to lose the plot a bit! I mean that in the nicest possible way I really do...but imho I don't think any amount of analysis can make sense of the wait times. We applied after many other 475s yet we have a case officer. We are LR country & MODL (also CSL altho this came into play after we got our CO) but so are others that we have jumped ahead of. I also know of at least one 475 that applied almost a month after us and got grant before Christmas. DIAC seems to be split into Regions as well & within each region things move at different speeds, so that would skew any analysis I would have thought. I'm sure they do have a system in place for allocation but not one whose logic can be deciphered from the outside! But this waiting is so horrible I know and folks must do what they can to get thru it and deal with it best they can. Having your life on hold is awful! Like many others we've jumped thru hoops & filled out forms & waited painfully for each little step to be completed for over 2 years now. Sometimes it's hard to stay sane! I hope you get a CO really really soon
I mean that in the nicest possible way I really do...but imho I don't think any amount of analysis can make sense of the wait times. We applied after many other 475s yet we have a case officer. We are LR country & MODL (also CSL altho this came into play after we got our CO) but so are others that we have jumped ahead of. I also know of at least one 475 that applied almost a month after us and got grant before Christmas. DIAC seems to be split into Regions as well & within each region things move at different speeds, so that would skew any analysis I would have thought. I'm sure they do have a system in place for allocation but not one whose logic can be deciphered from the outside! But this waiting is so horrible I know and folks must do what they can to get thru it and deal with it best they can. Having your life on hold is awful! Like many others we've jumped thru hoops & filled out forms & waited painfully for each little step to be completed for over 2 years now. Sometimes it's hard to stay sane! I hope you get a CO really really soon Btw, on the Document Checklist all docs of myself and my wife says "met" though those of my son still says "required". Do you think this could mean a CO or that someone just looked at my file?
Jan 12th 2009, 6:33 am
#75
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Re: UNOFFICIAL VISA COUNT
man_called_Horse.... very good analysis mate. Thanks for sharing this. Cheers!