any predictions £ versus AU $ ?

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Old Mar 25th 2003, 2:11 pm
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Roly
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Default any predictions £ versus AU $ ?

I'm off to the land of Oz in 4 weeks, the dollar is not looking as good as
it was, thankfully it has risen from 2.58 recently my choices are take the
plunge at circ 2.63 or wait a few more months - any predictions? - Tx
Roly
 
Old Mar 25th 2003, 2:46 pm
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if we could pretict this we wouldn't be here that's for sure..

currencies are -like the stock exchange- about confidence.

so it comes down to how confident are you that -
the war will go 'well'

the economy will pick up against what the others are doing..

will gordon brown revert to being a 'labour' chancellor (rather than use the tories monetary policy and claim it as his own)

+ about 1000 others

cheers

richard
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 3:25 pm
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My prediction is:

1. The UK economy is stuffed and the imminent collapse of the housing bubble will precipitate a sharp recession. GBP will decline by 2005 about 20% against a basket of other major currencies.

2. Australia will go back to recent trend of about 4% pa GDP growth - AUD will climb slightly against a basket of other major currencies.

3. Add the two together and within 2 years you could easily see the GBP decline 20-30% against the AUD.

Cheers - Don
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 3:36 pm
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Thanks Don.......

Which means what exactly ??

Mash...

Originally posted by pleasancefamily
My prediction is:

1. The UK economy is stuffed and the imminent collapse of the housing bubble will precipitate a sharp recession. GBP will decline by 2005 about 20% against a basket of other major currencies.

2. Australia will go back to recent trend of about 4% pa GDP growth - AUD will climb slightly against a basket of other major currencies.

3. Add the two together and within 2 years you could easily see the GBP decline 20-30% against the AUD.

Cheers - Don
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 3:37 pm
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ah yes but where does the euro fit into your equation??

cheers

richard
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 3:43 pm
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by mashiraz
Thanks Don.......

Which means what exactly ??

Mash...




1+2 =3

cheers

richard
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 3:58 pm
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Originally posted by mashiraz
Thanks Don.......

Which means what exactly ??

Mash...
Do you mean what does GBP mean? Great Britain Pound (UK Sterling). Or do you mean: what does the GBP currency going down vs AUD (and NZD - I predict) mean? It means we are rats leaving a sinking ship with all our hard earned dosh. Look at USD vs NZD over the last year - down 30%. One less bedroom and a smaller car if you didn't convert in time. It could easily happen with GBP vs AUD too...


Cheers - Don
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 4:01 pm
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Originally posted by r.bartlett
ah yes but where does the euro fit into your equation??

cheers

richard
Tough one. By 2005, Euro will be: slightly up or steady vs USD; down slightly vs AUD and NZD; up 20-25% vs GBP. (Says me.)

Cheers - Don
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 6:37 pm
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That's what I thought you meant, wasn't too good on the maths, but glad richard was there to help!!

Never know when up means good , and who's up and down versus who - see I'm in a tizz already!

Mash


QUOTE]Originally posted by pleasancefamily
Do you mean what does GBP mean? Great Britain Pound (UK Sterling). Or do you mean: what does the GBP currency going down vs AUD (and NZD - I predict) mean? It means we are rats leaving a sinking ship with all our hard earned dosh. Look at USD vs NZD over the last year - down 30%. One less bedroom and a smaller car if you didn't convert in time. It could easily happen with GBP vs AUD too...


Cheers - Don [/QUOTE]
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Old Mar 25th 2003, 7:07 pm
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by mashiraz
That's what I thought you meant, wasn't too good on the maths, but glad richard was there to help!!

hey c.s.e. grade 3 always comes in handy!!

cheers

richard
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Old Mar 26th 2003, 10:00 pm
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Default Re: any predictions ? versus AU $ ?

"Roly" wrote in message news:...
    > I'm off to the land of Oz in 4 weeks, the dollar is not looking as good as
    > it was, thankfully it has risen from 2.58 recently my choices are take the
    > plunge at circ 2.63 or wait a few more months - any predictions? - Tx
    > Roly

Economic trends, especially exchange rates are notoriously hard to
predict. Any economist (& I know a few) worth his salt will tell you
that 9 times out of 10 they get it wrong.

Anyone who tells you that they know what is going to happen to
exchange rates is talking out of their arse.
 
Old Mar 27th 2003, 2:32 am
  #12  
Don
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Default Re: any predictions ? versus AU $ ?

Originally posted by Springbok
"Roly" wrote in message news:...
    > I'm off to the land of Oz in 4 weeks, the dollar is not looking as good as
    > it was, thankfully it has risen from 2.58 recently my choices are take the
    > plunge at circ 2.63 or wait a few more months - any predictions? - Tx
    > Roly

Economic trends, especially exchange rates are notoriously hard to
predict. Any economist (& I know a few) worth his salt will tell you
that 9 times out of 10 they get it wrong.

Anyone who tells you that they know what is going to happen to
exchange rates is talking out of their arse.
Nobody on this forum has said they know what's going to happen to exchange rates. But thanks for your wisdom.

Chers - Don
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Old Mar 27th 2003, 6:34 am
  #13  
Anthony Genoso
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Default Re: any predictions ? versus AU $ ?

On 26/3/03 1:11, in article
[email protected] , "Roly"
wrote:

    > I'm off to the land of Oz in 4 weeks, the dollar is not looking as good as
    > it was, thankfully it has risen from 2.58 recently my choices are take the
    > plunge at circ 2.63 or wait a few more months - any predictions?

Either up, or down.

The AU Government is letting in such brain dead people from the UK now?
 

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