Things are perking up

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Old Jun 2nd 2002, 2:20 am
  #1  
John P
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Default Things are perking up

Folks looks like the US economy is on the mend. Another encouraging factor. Economy
on Path for Sound Recovery, Data Show Fri May 31, 6:01 PM ET

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...m/economy_dc_3

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing, which suffered the most during last year's
recession, is on a firmer footing, reports on Friday showed, and combined with
stunning productivity gains and better consumer sentiment, demonstrate the start of a
sound economic recovery.

"The recovery in the manufacturing sector means that the weakest part of the U.S.
economy is now on the mend," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia
Securities.

Four reports on Friday helped to reinforce views, flagging in recent days, that the
Federal Reserve (news - web sites) might raise rates in August. The Fed is next due
to discuss interest rates on June 25 and
26.

Stocks climbed initially jumped on the news but then weakened as investors feared
political conflict over the weekend, notably between India and Pakistan. The Dow
Jones industrial average closed up 21 points. The dollar also gained strength from
the data finishing the day around 0.9333 against the euro and at 124.28 yen.

MANUFACTURING ON THE REBOUND

Manufacturing in the Midwest jumped to a 3-year high in May, according to the
National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago. Its index surged to 60.8, the
highest level since April 1999. Last month, the index came in at 54.7.

The reading in May marked the fourth consecutive month above 50, which points to an
expanding regional manufacturing economy. A reading below 50 signals contraction.

"The recovery in the manufacturing sector means that weakest part of the U.S. economy
is now on the mend," Vitner said.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said orders for U.S.
manufactured items in April posted their biggest rise since October 2001, gaining a
larger-than-expected 1.2 percent to $323.87 billion.

That report also showed that business investment, closely watched by Fed policymakers
because it is crucial for a sustained recovery, is on the mend.

Orders for machinery rose 4.5 percent in the month, their biggest rise since March
2000 while orders for electrical equipment and appliances were up 9.6 percent. Demand
for computer and electronic products was up 3.0 percent.

"The third cylinder of the economic engine -- capital spending -- has really begun to
fire and this is a signal of improving business confidence," said Sung Won Sohn,
chief economist at Wells Fargo.

PRODUCTIVITY SURGES

There was other good news for the economy. A Labor Department (news - web sites)
report showed productivity rocketed ahead in the first quarter, rising 8.4
percent as profit-seeking American businesses squeezed more out of their workers.
This met expectations even though it was slightly below the previously reported
8.6 percent rise.

"Rising productivity means that corporate profits are beginning to improve and that
is a necessary precondition for an improvement in employment," said Vitner.

The productivity report showed little evidence of inflation with unit labor costs, a
closely watched gauge of wage pressure, dropping 5.2 percent.

"These productivity numbers have important implications for the conduct of monetary
policy and the performance of the economy," said David Resler, chief economist,
Nomura Securities International. "They mean we can produce more and not have serious
inflation problem come up."

Consumers also are doing their bit to underpin the recovery. Another report showed
sentiment rose in May to its highest level in 1-1/2 years as a steadily improving
economy and a measure of calm in the Mideast helped lift consumers' assessment of the
present and future hopes.

The University of Michigan's final May consumer sentiment index rose to 96.9 from
93.0 in April, market sources said, beating expectations and slightly above the
preliminary May reading of 96.0 released two weeks ago.

"The fundamentals for consumer spending are pretty healthy, so consumer spending will
be another economic stabilizer," said Sohn.
 
Old Jun 2nd 2002, 6:20 am
  #2  
John P
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Default Re: Things are perking up

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...0531/bs_nm/ec-
onomy_purchasing_chicago_dc_2

Midwest Manufacturing Jumps Fri May 31,10:52 AM ET By Melissa Goldfine

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing levels in the Midwest jumped to their highest
peaks in more than three years, according to data released on Friday, signaling the
U.S. recovery is gaining strength and that the Federal Reserve (news - web sites)
could raise interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its index surged to
60.8, the highest level since April 1999. Last month, the index came in at 54.7.

The reading in May marked the fourth consecutive month above 50, which points to an
expanding regional manufacturing economy. A reading below 50 signals contraction.

"Across the board, this is a very strong report," said Christopher Low, chief
economist at FTN Financial. "It certainly suggests that manufacturing is in terrific
shape ... Even though this is only one report and it's regional, it does increase the
odds that the Fed would go earlier rather than later."

U.S. Treasuries sold off on the news of economic strength, slashing gains to sink
into negative territory.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the May index at 54.9. The index began to
show signs of improvement in early 2002, with February marking the first time in 18
months the index was above 50.

The employment component of the index rose to 47.3 after reaching 41.2 in April.
Prices paid increased to 58.3, its highest level since March 2001, after posting a
reading of 55.4 the prior month.

NAPM-Chicago said that the production index posted the biggest gains since December
1995, coming in at 65.7, compared with 55.8 in April.

Some economists believe the regional manufacturing number is a reliable forecaster
of the national data from the Institute for Supply Management, formerly the
National Association of Purchasing Management. The ISM data is due out on Monday,
and economists polled by Reuters forecast the index to uptick to 54.1 in May from
53.9 in April.

Some economists said they may raise their estimates for the national data after
digesting the regional report.

"I think the forecasts that we have right now are too low, and that it is highly
probable that we could see a 60 print on the ISM for the overall index. All of sudden
a Fed rate hike in June has become more likely," said Brian Wesbury, chief economist
at Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompson.

The market has been debating how soon the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates
from their current 40-year low. Currently, the market does not expect higher rates
until August, at the earliest.

Recent data has given a mixed picture of the true strength of the U.S. economic
recovery. On Friday, first-quarter U.S. productivity grew at the fastest pace in
almost 19 years but more slowly than previously reported. Separately, the University
of Michigan sentiment index rose to 96.9 in May, compared with 93.0 in April.
 
Old Jun 2nd 2002, 4:20 pm
  #3  
Stuart Brook
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Default Re: Things are perking up

The trouble is this is a very fragile recovery. One too many rate hikes again by
Greenspan and it will all come tumbling back down, and the rate doesn't need to go as
high as last time. Industry is scared stiff of spending involving interest bearing
debt right now. Hike rates, and it's "stop spending" again.
 
Old Jun 3rd 2002, 9:20 pm
  #4  
John P
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Default Re: Things are perking up

Canada's GDP up 1.5 per cent first quarter on hot housing market, factory rebound Fri
May 31,12:11 PM ET

OTTAWA - Canada's economy grew by 1.5 per cent in the first three months of this year
— six per cent at an annualized rate — propelled by a strong housing market and a
rebound in exports and manufacturing, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

The pace of growth in gross domestic product was more than double that of the
previous quarter, and was the fastest since the fourth quarter of 1999.

However, the statistics agency noted that economic activity paused late in the
quarter, as GDP (news - web sites) leveled off in March.

Statistics Canada said domestic demand was driven by housing investment and by robust
consumer spending, but business investment in plant and equipment edged down.

Spending on new housing surged 10.5 per cent to an all-time high in the first
quarter, breaking the record level of the late-1980s housing boom.

The manufacturing sector reversed five quarters of decline, led by makers of
information and communications technology and transportation equipment as well as
chemical and wood products.

On a year-over-year basis in inflation-adjusted terms, Canada's economy was 2.1 per
cent larger in the first quarter than in the same quarter of 2001.
 
Old Jun 3rd 2002, 9:20 pm
  #5  
John P
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Default Re: Things are perking up

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(416) 263-9293 Stephen Hewitt, NATIONAL Public Relations, (416) 586-0180
 

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