JAJ

It's not reached the point where it's probable. But where 20-30% of the British population want to leave and perhaps a similar amount are thoroughly fed-up with the consequences of membership and could easily be persuaded to leave by a Prime Minister who was so minded, I would not use the term "extremely unlikely".

Especially as it's now distinctly possible that the pro-EU Labour government will be thrown out of office at the next election. Withdrawal from the EU is less improbable than many of the other things that have happened in Europe in the last 20 years or so. And we're not just talking about the next 5 years here, we're looking ahead 50 years.

With the benefit of hindsight I'd say it's extremely arrogant to be able to predict the future so far ahead.

Up to the original poster whether he wants to make the effort to secure his status in the United Kingdom or not.

One thing is very clear. If Britain does leave the EU and he's not a British citizen, then he can forget the idea of coming back unless he meets the requirements of the immigration rules at the time (which will likely be a lot tighter than now).

daft batty

My understanding is that Irish Citizens can reside indefinitely in the UK. No visa, work permit needed.

JAJ

The pertinent clarifier is under the existing immigration laws.

Which can be changed. Incidentally, there is some talk at the moment about putting further restrictions on the Common Travel Area between the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.

One upon a time Canadian citizens had the same rights. It got changed - overnight - in 1962.

daft batty

Well if the OP is still living in the UK, and has lived there for long enough then they could apply for British citizenship couldnt they? How many citizenships can you hold??

JAJ

Precisely the point, if the OP meets the requirements for naturalisation. Becoming a British citizen before leaving is the only safe way to keep open the option to return later on.



Depends on the laws of the countries concerned. No problem with holding Irish, Canadian and British citizenship at the same time.

wbexpat

Evidence, please.
And with all due respect, I believe you a projecting.

bandit

Hi Guys!!!

thanks for the info...

And 'he' is a 'she'!!!

Bandit!

Old Lob

Shengen enlargement, the daily mail newspapers increasing xenophobia, reluctance to join the currency, absolute refusal to implement social chapter, polarisation with the USA, major irrationality and the political need to provide a different sort of manifesto.

Not suggesting it is a good thing.

wbexpat

Sorry to labour the point, and I am honestly trying my best to engage in a constructive and objective debate here. (honest!).

But when I say "evidence" I mean quoting a respected, stated policy or manifesto by any mainstream party, party leader or senior politician that advocates withdrawal from the EU and some signs that that view has official support and a degree of popular sympathy.

I don't disagree with your observations, anecdotal as they are. I just can't, without evidence as described, go to the next step and conclude UK membership of the EU is about to end, likely to end, or is even at risk of ending in the timeframe JaJ first mentioned: 5-10 years (my bad - I should have spelt that out).

Jaj later brought up the timescale of 50 years - well of course anything can happen in 50 years. But that would be 2058, 85 years after the UK joined the EU (EEC as-was). The UK is now 35 85ths of the way through this time period (ie nearly half-way). Is the UK more or less integrated than in 1973? The answer is clearly "MORE".

Mind you I cannot predict the future. A wise man once said it would be extremely arrogant to do so. There is no guarantee the UK will still be in the EU in 2058. Mind you there is also no guarantee Canada won't have been invaded by Uncle Sam in the same time frame.

Anyways, back to the OP. Maybe the advice to get UK citizenship while there is an opportunity to do so is good for a whole bunch of reasons. In any case I wish her and everyone else well. Thanks for the debate.

JAJ

A certain amount of popular sympathy is clearly there. Beyond that there are prominent members of both major parties who do believe that at the very least Britain's relationship with Europe must change fundamentally, even though the political/media culture only allows such discussions on the fringes of political life.

To even peer ahead 10 years and make predictions is quite difficult.

It's not specific to the U.K. incidentally. I would suggest that anyone living in another EU/EEA state to the one they are a citizen of ought to to consider citizenship of that country, provided it does not carry onerous obligations (eg military service, or doesn't allow dual citizenship). If one is to leave that country as a non-citizen, there is no guarantee that the immigration laws will always allow unrestricted re-entry.

Old Lob

[QUOTE=wbexpat;5753987]Sorry to labour the point, and I am honestly trying my best to engage in a constructive and objective debate here. (honest!).

But when I say "evidence" I mean quoting a respected, stated policy or manifesto by any mainstream party, party leader or senior politician that advocates withdrawal from the EU and some signs that that view has official support and a degree of popular sympathy.

Sorry mate but the evidence can be anecdotal because no-one is on trial. Standard of proof can even be strength of feeling because it is the electoral process behind political change through the vote. I don't think we ought to leave Europe but I believe that at least very recently there could have been a choice to stay with Europe or join USA.

edsask

And if seems likely, the Conservatives do get in, then it is entirely possible that the Scottish National Party will see a surge in popularity (their only other real rivals, Scottish Labour having been discredited by scandals, Iraq, etc.), demands for an independence referendum become deafening, and we're in a different ball game, at least for Scotland. Arrogance indeed to confidently predict the future. But we're rather straying from the poster's original question here. Interested parties might take this up in the Maple Leaf forum.

bazzz

On the internet? Have you taken complete leave of your senses?

Selsame

As much as I would like it to happen Britain is extremely unlikely to withdraw from the EU. In fact I would say I stand more chance of winning the national lottery than the likelihood of Britain going it alone. The EU may well collapse though. I wouldn't rule that out. However the OP is Irish and Ireland is part of the common travel area, so even if Britain did pull out of the EU he would still be allowed to live and work in the UK. Our relationship with Ireland comes under EU laws but we have a relationship with Ireland that pre-dates the EU/EEC and we share a common land border which we don't with any other EU country. Therefore I wouldn't be in the slightest bit worried about the possibility of Britain leaving the EU as there are I would guess hundreds of thousands of Irish nationals who reside in Britain with Irish passports.

JAJ

Stranger things have happened. And in around two years there is the distinct possibility of a new government with a very different attitude towards the EU than that of the current administration.

I would agree that it is highly unlikely that Irish citizens will face border controls, for the reasons you cite. However it is not impossible that some limited form of border control could be instituted. For example, limiting the rights of Irish citizens to vote, claim benefits or sponsor relatives for settlement in the U.K. (with grandfathering for those already resident, but not new arrivals).

In other words, possibly something quite similar to what Australia imposed on New Zealand citizens back in 2001.