KenA

Hi

I have noticed that in 2017 there are 2 rounds of invitations (at least) every month.

We are alomst at the end of June, yet no round of invitations so far for this month.

Shall we expect a new round soon?

Any predections about the minimum score?

Thanks

christmasoompa

There was an extra draw in May, so I think that's why there hasn't been one in early June. My guess is if it's a FSW draw, points level between 411 and 420 given how many people they've got scoring above that level at the moment. Just a guess though!

Theprestige94

Completely forgot about the two rounds close together think it was 25 & 29th May. Hopefully they start it again as normal. I'm thinking it will remain 413 for this month and drop to 410 next. All in speculation looking at how many people have been drawn and who is sitting where points wise. Last year I'd have never guessed it would have got so low and I read somewhere online canadian officials hopeful for it to drop as low as 350 in the future.

Vulcanoid

Would that even be mathmatically viable? People have to get into the pool in the first place - so for FSW, that's a 67-point hump. They test slightly different things, but it's pretty hard to get over 67 in the first one, and as low as 350 in the second.

For example, a newly minted UK graduate has 366 CRS points (Age 18-29 110 points, Degree 120 points, Fluent English 136 points = 366), but only 57 FSW points. Anything to raise the FSW points would also tick the CRS points up further.

Not saying it's not/can't. Just seems it would be a shockingly low number.

christmasoompa

I feel a calculation coming on! I agree, not sure it's possible unless it's only for FST applicants, I think the minimum would have to be higher for all FSW apps. But if I get a quiet 5 mins later today with a cup of coffee I might just run some numbers (yep, immi geek.......).

Theprestige94

Haha immi geek away!! I'd love to know your background at some point as you've always got answers or find out the answers. Have you always been so interested in immigration?

christmasoompa

I worked for an immi consultant for years, and still do the odd bit of Canadian immi work. Plus we applied for PR ourselves, so yes, it's always interested me.

Theprestige94

Have you just applied for PR or something you done in the past? Always great that you share your knowledge it's certainly helped me and my immigration process.

christmasoompa

In the past, 7 years ago in fact - can't believe it was that long ago!

Engineer_abroad

Im just as bad I have the distribution curve for the ITA points plotted along with mean, -/+1 and 2 Standard deviations.

Novocastrian

I don't think a distribution curve is the correct or most useful approach. I'd suggest a curve-fit to the time series possibly using a Savitsky-Golay algorithm.

Engineer_abroad

yea, agree but I am not nerdy to spend my own time doing it.

Gorbzilla

Hi,

There were some changes in the CRS points system on 6th June (https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.c...39007.html/amp), my gut feeling is that they may have messed something up in the system which is why no draw has taken place.

Separately, CIC now show the score distribution of candidates in the pool: Express Entry rounds of invitations (search for crs score distribution if the link doesn't work)

Thing is lots of candidates above 400 points join the pool each day - if draws occur every 2 weeks with say 3,500 invites, there will be some kind of equilibrium point which feels like it would be close to the 400 mark (i.e. every 2 weeks 3,500 candidates above 400 join the pool, all who get invited in the next draw). Feels like the volume of invites would need to increase quite a bit for the cutoff to fall to 350.

It's all speculation mind you, the only real facts available are the score distribution, and the approximate monthly invite volume this year so far....

Theprestige94

Well I was a bit far out with the score being 449. Hopefully we don't have a month gap again!!

Hopefully July will be business as usual.