Average Processing times - sanity check!
Nov 3rd 2011, 9:30 am
#1
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Joined: May 2010
Location: Kitchener Ontario.
Posts: 286
Average Processing times - sanity check!
Please comment on my thoughts below.
It is my current understanding that average processing times for FSW's at local VO's are calculated from the AOR date and are historical data: Based on the now quoted 27 months average for 80% of applications at London to finalise applications in the MI1 stream (feb 2008 - June 2010), I cannot see how this can be correct. Obviously statistics can be manipulated to show a good or bad story, in this case they want to show a bad story. I wonder why?
The change to 27 months has just been published yesterday and 3 months ago it was 20 months. This would imply these changes are for applicants who were finalised in the last three months? Meaning people with AOR's around April, May 2009 should have been the ones who were only recently finalised. This is not what I see on any of the Canadian forums where applicants with AOR's from March, April & May 2010 are the ones getting their visa's and completing in this time frame. Jan, Feb 2010 AOR's and earlier applicants are already through or been rejected.
I am trying to clarify when the clock starts ticking as the stats are quoted on the CIO web site it may mean that the start date is actually the initial application date rather than the VO's AOR. But even taking this into consideration 27 months is much greater than anyone I have seen in the MI1 stream take.
It is my current understanding that average processing times for FSW's at local VO's are calculated from the AOR date and are historical data: Based on the now quoted 27 months average for 80% of applications at London to finalise applications in the MI1 stream (feb 2008 - June 2010), I cannot see how this can be correct. Obviously statistics can be manipulated to show a good or bad story, in this case they want to show a bad story. I wonder why?
The change to 27 months has just been published yesterday and 3 months ago it was 20 months. This would imply these changes are for applicants who were finalised in the last three months? Meaning people with AOR's around April, May 2009 should have been the ones who were only recently finalised. This is not what I see on any of the Canadian forums where applicants with AOR's from March, April & May 2010 are the ones getting their visa's and completing in this time frame. Jan, Feb 2010 AOR's and earlier applicants are already through or been rejected.
I am trying to clarify when the clock starts ticking as the stats are quoted on the CIO web site it may mean that the start date is actually the initial application date rather than the VO's AOR. But even taking this into consideration 27 months is much greater than anyone I have seen in the MI1 stream take.
Nov 3rd 2011, 6:03 pm
#2
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 9,708
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
Hi
If you go to Open Data.gc.ca you can download the interactive tables. They are from July/11. For M1 applications from London, from June/10 to July/11
20% 8 months
50% 14 months
80% 20 months.
Don't forget that the Pakistan No.s are now in London's RPC.
The clock starts when the overseas office receives the file from CIO Sydney.
Please comment on my thoughts below.
It is my current understanding that average processing times for FSW's at local VO's are calculated from the AOR date and are historical data: Based on the now quoted 27 months average for 80% of applications at London to finalise applications in the MI1 stream (feb 2008 - June 2010), I cannot see how this can be correct. Obviously statistics can be manipulated to show a good or bad story, in this case they want to show a bad story. I wonder why?
The change to 27 months has just been published yesterday and 3 months ago it was 20 months. This would imply these changes are for applicants who were finalised in the last three months? Meaning people with AOR's around April, May 2009 should have been the ones who were only recently finalised. This is not what I see on any of the Canadian forums where applicants with AOR's from March, April & May 2010 are the ones getting their visa's and completing in this time frame. Jan, Feb 2010 AOR's and earlier applicants are already through or been rejected.
I am trying to clarify when the clock starts ticking as the stats are quoted on the CIO web site it may mean that the start date is actually the initial application date rather than the VO's AOR. But even taking this into consideration 27 months is much greater than anyone I have seen in the MI1 stream take.
It is my current understanding that average processing times for FSW's at local VO's are calculated from the AOR date and are historical data: Based on the now quoted 27 months average for 80% of applications at London to finalise applications in the MI1 stream (feb 2008 - June 2010), I cannot see how this can be correct. Obviously statistics can be manipulated to show a good or bad story, in this case they want to show a bad story. I wonder why?
The change to 27 months has just been published yesterday and 3 months ago it was 20 months. This would imply these changes are for applicants who were finalised in the last three months? Meaning people with AOR's around April, May 2009 should have been the ones who were only recently finalised. This is not what I see on any of the Canadian forums where applicants with AOR's from March, April & May 2010 are the ones getting their visa's and completing in this time frame. Jan, Feb 2010 AOR's and earlier applicants are already through or been rejected.
I am trying to clarify when the clock starts ticking as the stats are quoted on the CIO web site it may mean that the start date is actually the initial application date rather than the VO's AOR. But even taking this into consideration 27 months is much greater than anyone I have seen in the MI1 stream take.
If you go to Open Data.gc.ca you can download the interactive tables. They are from July/11. For M1 applications from London, from June/10 to July/11
20% 8 months
50% 14 months
80% 20 months.
Don't forget that the Pakistan No.s are now in London's RPC.
The clock starts when the overseas office receives the file from CIO Sydney.
Nov 3rd 2011, 7:44 pm
#3
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,099
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
16 months since my file transfer. I'm not expecting to see a visa for at least another 12 months (minimum), given the way things are going. Bad times.
Nov 3rd 2011, 10:10 pm
#4
Permanent Residents
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2010
Location: Kitchener Ontario.
Posts: 286
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
Hi
If you go to Open Data.gc.ca you can download the interactive tables. They are from July/11. For M1 applications from London, from June/10 to July/11
20% 8 months
50% 14 months
80% 20 months.
Don't forget that the Pakistan No.s are now in London's RPC.
The clock starts when the overseas office receives the file from CIO Sydney.
If you go to Open Data.gc.ca you can download the interactive tables. They are from July/11. For M1 applications from London, from June/10 to July/11
20% 8 months
50% 14 months
80% 20 months.
Don't forget that the Pakistan No.s are now in London's RPC.
The clock starts when the overseas office receives the file from CIO Sydney.
Nov 4th 2011, 5:09 pm
#5
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 4,483
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
It should be noted that they are not average processing times. The times quoted are the times it took for the slowest application included in each segment to be finalized. Every one else in those segments was processed a shorter time.
Nov 4th 2011, 5:11 pm
#6
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Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Lunenburg, NS
Posts: 539
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
So 27 months is the worst case scenario? [sees a small glimmer of hope]
Nov 4th 2011, 5:49 pm
#7
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Joined: May 2010
Location: Kitchener Ontario.
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Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
Also take into consideration that the start date is not the AOR but when London or any VO actually receive your full package. This in our case this is 6 weeks earlier than we thought! Jim and Amy have both confirmed this is the case as I and many other thought the AOR was when the clock started ticking.
Nov 4th 2011, 7:12 pm
#8
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Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Lunenburg, NS
Posts: 539
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
Also take into consideration that the start date is not the AOR but when London or any VO actually receive your full package. This in our case this is 6 weeks earlier than we thought! Jim and Amy have both confirmed this is the case as I and many other thought the AOR was when the clock started ticking.
I hope we start to get processed properly after Christmas, can't see them getting round to it until then.
Nov 4th 2011, 7:43 pm
#10
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 4,483
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
I think the figure for 100% of cases would be the worst. That said, cases that are longer than the 80% are all problems of some sort or other and may take years in fact. I think you are safe in your assumptions.
Nov 4th 2011, 7:58 pm
#11
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 330
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
Jim I could hug you! Cheered me up for the weekend! 
Nov 4th 2011, 10:05 pm
#12
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Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Lunenburg, NS
Posts: 539
Re: Average Processing times - sanity check!
wahoo!!! me too! 
