Andrew Miller

Additional resources won't change anything. All visa posts are more than adequately staffed and have sufficient resources to not only meet their annual targets (visa quotas) but to meet them between October and November each year. In past several years (if not in more than a decade) all visa posts met their targets well before end of each year. Thus adding resources is simply pointless as quotas will not be raised faster and more than by about 25% over next 5 or so years.

Backlog equals now the worth of about 8+ years of annual quotas in economic classes - how adding additional resources can clear it up?

True, unless government will be brave enough to dramatically raise pass mark and then add resources to refuse most cases in the backlog in shortest possible time. If pass mark is not raised then my grandchildren will still witness the still growing backlog and Canadian economy won't be getting enough immigrants it needs the most.

immigrants

I want to know do the government has guts to dramatically raise pass mark even applicants submitted the forms? What's the political effect even positive or negative?

Finally, do you have no any hints to know that's what's next of CIC or government?
Can you provide some analysis on it? Thank you!

Andrew Miller

Sorry, but I don't have any hints.

There are many scenarios government may decide to play with the backlog, some that come to mind may be -

1. stop accepting new applications (as New Zealand did not so long ago) and without raising pass mark process only cases in the backlog until it is cleared. Result? Economy won't get workers needed and many immigrants won't find jobs in their occupations. It will take about 8+ years if resources are allocated proportionally to the backlog in visa posts;

2. do the same as above (stop accepting new applications) but raise pass mark and double temporary processing resources - depending from how high pass mark goes clearing backlog will take anywhere from 4 to 6 years; with tripling resources maybe 1 to 3 years;

3. don't stop accepting new cases, don't raise pass mark, allocate X% of resources and visas to backlog and Y% to new cases, limit number of new applications to be adequate to cover Y% of quotas, but keep the ratio backlog/new (X/Y) floating and change it as needed on at least annual basis, assign quotas to occupations and categories within SW class. Clearing backlog will take 8 to 16+ years, economy for next 16 years may not get enough workers it needs and many immigrants will complain that Canada didn't provide them jobs upon arrival. Unless many (if not most) in the backlog will decide to either give up or get arranged employment - this way natural selection will take over, and with least political damage backlog hopefully giving economy over time what it needs.

4. keep accepting new applications, don't raise pass mark, limit number of new applications to be adequate to annual quotas, give the highest priority and first visas from annual quotas to cases with arranged employment and whatever is left use for applications from backlog. Backlog will never be cleared, but will not grow. Sooner or later natural selection will take over;

5. same as in scenario #3 but have the guts to raise the pass mark - backlog will be cleared sooner than in #3 and other positive results will come much faster too.

Political effect will vary from scenario to scenario - at the beginning of course it will be a political price to pay, no matter what. Government will have to decide what is the maximum price it can afford.

There are many more possibilities and even more different results.

Take your pick or think about other scenarios.

But based on what I see so far happening and how/what government is amending, what CIC is saying and not saying I would think that scenario #3 (or some variation of it) is where we are heading if government decides not to raise pass mark and minimize political liability. It may work, but only if X/Y ratio and annual allocation of quotas within Y to occupations/categories will really be used to manage immigration for as long as it takes and as often as needed.

It won't work if government forgets (for political or other reason) why scenario #3 (or variation of it) was introduced in first place, just as it happened between '72 and 2002 with General Occupations List and it's points under previous law and Regulations. It is the biggest worry.

Because of that bad experience of the past and knowing that no government can keep up adjusting things as needed for too long without politicians messing it up I would prefer some variation of scenario #4 or #5.

sim2point4

Job offer in Yarmouth, had advice from different Canadians about how not much going on and that we would head back to Halifax area as soon as we could, so decided against going, anyway we purchased some land in Fall River and our house is in the process of being constructed, and my area of work is airport based, so the idea is when both kids are at school is to work at Halifax airport which is a 10 min drive from Fall River. Glad it has all worked out for you, but we would never have had the guts to just go and see what happens.

sim2point4

My first choice is and always will be Canada, if we went to NZ first I would never get hubbie to move again to Canada. We received an ITA for NZ, but haven't sent it off, I suppose if Canada never happens we can lodge an EOI again, providing of course that plumbers are still on the long term shortage list. Unfortunately we always seem to make the wrong choices, and if I had not become so obsessed with getting to Canada, mabey we would have visited NZ and not spent the last 2 years visiting Nova Scotia, but we are set on Canada, and damn it we will continue after 26 months of waiting, fools we may be!

jimmydean

Andrew

I think your No 4 is closer to the mark..............keep it as it is but allow cherry picking from the applicants based on their NOC.....

...it seems like Canada needs a lot of cherries of varying flavours...

...not much use if you are plum though...........

Judy in Calgary

Sorry, I haven't gone back and looked at your previous posts and figured out your history ... but ... I'm wondering if you are you aware of the Nova Scotia Community Identified Stream. I'm just thinking that, if you've already gone over on recce trips, you may have got(ten) to know some people, and you may be able to put those relationships to constructive use. I used to think that you couldn't just switch from a skilled worker application (which is the one I'm guessing you've lodged) to a PNP application (the CIS is part of Nova Scotia's PNP). However, I recently learned from one of Andrew Miller's posts that CHC London is quite tolerant of people who switch midstream from SW to PNP. Sorry if you already know this, and if my tips are redundant.
x

Ibraheem

common sense tells that increasing a passmark was an option for years to help fixing the mess but they never took it, instead they are introducing amendments which means its even less likely than before that they will deal with the passmark option,obviously they are going to a different direction.

Andrew Miller

Like I said - a "different direction" applies only to applications submitted on and after Feb 27 2008, it has nothing to do with backlog.

Backlog matter has not been addressed yet by CIC - thus all options of dealing with it remain open.

Tableland

I don't think you're fools at all. You have to go where you feel is right, and where your research leads you. Good luck, T.

sim2point4

Thanks for the info Judy, I was aware of the NS CIS part of the PNP, but didn't realise that you don't need a job offer, so mabey this could be a possibility for us...

seanyg

Just checked our AOR and it's dated Feb 26th...phew, that was close!

immigrants

http://www.canadavisa.com/latest-new...ct-080317.html


Latest News on Changes to the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act
Monday, 17 March 2008
On March 14, 2008 Canada's Conservative government proposed amendments to the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA). If passed, these changes would give the Minster of Immigration (the Minister) more power to control the number and type of people allowed into the country and the speed with which they may enter Canada.

Under the current law, Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) is required to assess every Permanent Resident application received at a visa office, in a particular immigration category, on a “first come, first served” basis. The proposed modifications, if passed, would permit CIC to select among the new applications received and choose those that they determine best suit Canada's labour market requirements. Based on instructions received by the Minister, a new application could be processed quickly, held at the visa office for processing at a later time, or returned to the applicant along with government processing fees. A returned application would not be considered a refusal. Moreover, the Minister would be able to set limits on the types of immigrants (Federal Skilled Workers, for example) that can have their applications accepted for processing in a given year.

CIC reiterates that Canada remains open to immigration and that the proposed amendments should not deter good candidates from applying at this time. The current passmark of 67 points, under the Federal Skilled Worker category, would not be affected by the proposed amendments.

It is important to note that the proposed modifications are not currently in force and they will not be implemented unless and until they receive a majority vote of the House of Commons and the Senate, followed by Royal Assent. The Conservative Party heads a minority government and two of the three other political parties sitting in the Commons have indicated that they will vote against the amendments as they are now proposed. It remains to be seen whether the Liberal Party of Canada will support the Conservatives or vote to kill the proposed amendments. Second reading of the legislative bill is scheduled for March 31, 2008.

The proposed legislation, if passed in its present form, will apply to all applications received at a visa office on or after February 27, 2008

Do this message delivered from CIC? Does it mean that existing applicants not yet affect?

Andrew Miller

As I am stating here clearly from the beginning - proposed amendments have absolutely nothing to do with pass mark and applications submitted prior to Feb 27 2008.

Under existing law Minister can change pass mark at any time and as often as needed or desired, without asking Parliament or anyone else for approval. And proposed amendments are not taking this power away from Minister nor limit it in any way.

Again - backlog and pass mark are not affected by proposed amendments. They will or will not be dealt with separately, just as I have already tried to explain here in my answer to your post #47 above.

immigrants

Yes, I remember what you say, but my point is does CIC guarantee officially,
the existing applicants does not affect even CIC has the right to raise passing mark?