General Tojo

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...y-6286332.html

Would anyone living in Hungary or who has recently been there like to comment on this Independent article? How accurate is it?

Rural Hungary

Hi General Tojo, usually I would request that this be taken to the "take it outside" area of the site. However, as it refers directly to Hungary, I think it might be useful to hear others opinions.
Those replying, please moderate your comments and try to keep it light and non argumentative.

General Tojo

Thanks for that Rural Hungary, I'm genuinely interested in what those on the ground think. I visited E Europe for the first time this Xmas holiday, stayed just a couple of days in Budapest around the time the government was making the headlines.

scrubbedexpat0105

"Hungary's right-wing populist government hit the headlines this week over its plans to impose draconian controls on the Hungarian central bank."

The bank will cease to be independent and will be placed under government control. Ask yourself: if the (democratically elected!) government isn't controlling it, who is, and why is that better?

The Bank of England became independent in 1997. Was the situation "draconian" before then?

"...comparatively benevolent system of totalitarian socialist rule"

Can you say that and keep a straight face?

"The decision ... caused the collapse of the forint against the euro."

To my knowledge, it fell from 310 to 319 against the euro, then bounced back. Compared to the slide from around 270 over the second half of 2011 and more generally to the fluctuations on the currency markets in the recent past, e.g. euro/dollar or euro/sterling, that's trivial. Don't just take my word for it, see:

www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=HUF&view=1Y

[Fidesz] "seems bent on imposing its right-wing and xenophobic ideology on all walks of life"

Centre-right governments are in power in the great majority of EU countries at present:

www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/jul/28/europe-politics-interactive-map-left-right

Fidesz is in line with the prevailing political trend in Europe. More worrying is the healthy support for Jobbik, to the right of Fidesz, and that may to some extent explain Fidesz' right-wing belligerence: it needs to satisfy its clientèle enough to stop them voting Jobbik.

"Anything that smacks of unacceptable left-wing thinking is being singled out as a target for denunciation or destruction by the Orban government's culture police"

And anything that smacks of unacceptable right-wing thinking is being singled out as a target for denunciation by Tony Paterson in the Independent. What's the difference? This is arguably the real problem: Hungary is still a young democracy and learning the finer points of pluralistic politics. It isn't constructive to present democracy as a choice between two extremes, one of which is demonized according to where you yourself happen to stand on the political spectrum.

Don't get me wrong: I find the latest political developments in Hungary distasteful, I consider myself moderate (neither left nor right-wing), the Independent is my paper of choice. But this article is just thinly-veiled scaremongering. Liberal democracy doesn't die overnight just because a theatre director gets fired.

Getting back on topic: what would concern me would be an attempt to impose taxes on second homes.

Rural Hungary

To be honest, in much of the countryside, life carries on as though nothing is happening. We spoke with a neighbour last week who didn't know what all the fuss was about because the new constitution or falling forint does not affect them - they still get up every morning, cut wood, tend the garden etc.
However, go into the towns and the story is very different. Those with mortgages and home loans are really struggling as these are mainly Swiss Franc and Euro and with the forint falling and food prices increasing, it is becoming more difficult to meet the mortgage repayments each month.

Fidesz swept to victory 18 months ago with a 2/3's majority which enabled them to create a new constitution which could not be challenged because of their majority. Since then, polls say his support has halved and I would accept this based on the recent protests in Budapest. Speaking with Hungarian friends in both Nagykanizsa and Budapest you quickly realise that it is indeed affecting people in the towns and there is general feeling of discontentment and anger and opinion has definitely turned against Orban - whom many now refer to as Viktator. He is likened to Berlusconi and regularly called a megalomaniac by Hungarians who previously supported him with calls for his resignation.

Hungarians have been protesting against the constitution even before it was implemented but only now are those protests gathering pace. The new constitution allows Orban to place party loyalists in control of institutions such as the constitutional court and Media authority for the next 9 years, the provisions for the central bank have scared off investors which Hungary desperately needs at the moment. As has the new fat tax which I find incredible in that foods such as pasta are taxed and yet pork scratchings, pork fat are not? Our local town has seen the effect of this when Bonbonetti cancelled it's planned 450 m ft expansion with the loss of around 450 new jobs because of the tax.

One difficulty the Hungarians face is that there is no real alternative to Fidesz, the only other option for right wing voters is Jobbik who saw an huge increase in voters at the last election but thankfully their popularity has waned recently.

The Hungarians I know honestly believed Fidesz was the beginning of a new era and yet they have watched as the forint continues to fall, freedom of the press is curtailed with the New Media law, gay rights have been retracted, home births are illegal and Hungary has been made extremely unattractive to investors.

General Tojo

Zero tolerance" - or zero sympathy - for Hungary's homelessness?

At the beginning of this month a new Hungarian constitution came into force, accompanied by large demonstrations by opposition parties and civil groups. But both the government's controversial policies, and the reaction to them, are dwarfed by the wider impact of the economic crisis.

Nick Thorpe found many once-comfortable people now on the streets of the Hungarian capital, Budapest - and was warned of a looming mortgage crisis too.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...ary_and_Nepal/

Rural Hungary

I'm assuming it must have been a report such as this that my mother heard before phoning me the other morning! The conversation went something like this.
Mum: I've just heard the news
Me: What news
Mum: It's all over the UK news, Hungary is about to collapse
Me: erm, no, Hungarians want to oust Orban and they are going to have to bend over backwards now to get the help they need from the IMF but it is nowhere near as bad as what happened in Ireland
Mum: well it's all the starving people I feel sorry for
Me: what starving people
Mum: the news says there are thousands of people starving and homeless
Me: No more than there was this time last year
Mum: but so many people are losing their homes
Me: erm, not that I have heard of, people are struggling and there are problems but it's nowhere near as bad as Ireland
(Whatever she had heard or read, she was left with the impression that the streets of Hungary were overflowing with starving Hungarians)

I can't really comment on the extent of the problem in Budapest but to the best of my knowledge, there have always been homelessness in Budapest as there is in any other capital worldwide and I don't think it is much worse than the likes of Italy and certainly better than in Paris. Neither do I believe the number of repossessions is anywhere near the number in many other EU countries - I base this on the number being auctioned off by the government. Whether this changes over the next couple of years remains to be seen, the government has implemented a number of schemes to aid those experiencing problems including capped exchange rate on repayments, interest subsidies and purchasing properties allowing the owner to repay their loan then rent the property. Some say the programme will be successful in the short term but the medium-long term risks are significant.

Perhaps I am not seeing the "full picture" but the protests are in my opinion, no different to those held in London, Paris and elsewhere when the people are dissatisfied, yes the economy is struggling and Hungary has wasted the advantage it had for investment and economic growth, compared to other new EU member states. However, having witnessed the collapse of the Celtic Tiger (school closures, hospital closures, 2-3 year waiting lists to see specialists, ghost estates, repossessions) I have to say that as yet, I have seen none of this in Hungary, whether that changes over the coming years remains to be seen!

With my limited political knowledge I would hope that the EU use this opportunity to apply the required pressure and force changes to the constitution.

PS: as far as I know, the vagrancy law is still valid in the UK and people are arrested for being homeless. Not justifying the Hungarian vagrancy law, just pointing out that the BBC report failed to mention this.

klarika

Yes my mother in law read something similiar she say's "it sounds as if it is still a little communist" maybe it is I don't know. Although I think you are right it seems to be the same all over.
Unfortunately there will always be poor people as well as the rich and Budapest as well as other major cities ie, London, Manchester ect has always had a lot of homeless people on the streets.

stromnessdundee

Yes it is. The Government has no respect for the ordinary checks and balances needed in a modern democratic state. This together with the dire economic situation has had an affect on the Country's credit rating. I was standing in line at the cash machine this morning and everyone in front was withdrawing huge sums of money- really not good! When the poop hits the fan the rush towards Jobbik will become a stampede. Sorry, finding it hard to be light hearted at the moment. I worry for the average Hungarian and the life that they will soon be facing.

stromnessdundee

Watch and learn. Although why the BBC has only just now got the bit between it's teeth I will leave for another day...

Rural Hungary

Hello you, nice to see your still alive, hope it's going well for you in Budapest :-)

Having only a couple of Hungarian friends in Budapest, I hear a somewhat one sided Budapest opinion but do you honestly think it will come to that and that the majority of voters would turn to Jobbik? My belief was than many would rather stay at home than vote, which in itself benefits Jobbik.
Perhaps I am overly optimistic or naive but as I can not see the collapse of the Eurozone, neither can I see Jobbik being in power nor the new constitution remaining as it is. As I understood it, both the EU and Washington had legal teams going over the constitution with a fine tooth comb before the forth coming meeting with the IMF. Orban acknowledges that Hungary needs further support from the IMF and has stated he is ready to accept conditions (whether he will, as in the past, renege on his word remains to be seen). Surely this is the time for the EU to demand the "illegal laws" be removed from the constitution.

Economically, for people in my village, life will change very little. They are mostly self sufficient, use a minimum amount of electricity, most have no internet, no mortgages or loans etc Naturally, those with home loans and mortgages will continue to struggle and sadly, an increase in repossessions is likely but is it really any worse than in many other EU states?

Rural Hungary

Would love to hear why you think they haven't until now

OGSG

It is also a case of the older generation not holding on to the past. It is still "acceptable" nay obligatory to give "backhanders" if you want good service in certain service industries.
The government is also "short of change" as not everyone will pay their taxes or can indeed afford to! A vicious circle!

Rural Hungary

My opinion is that the recent media onslaught is all part of the game. By waiting until now, when, having previously turned their back on the IMF, Hungary is desperate for financial aid and the EU have them exactly where they want them. Pressure will be applied for changes to the constitution in return for financial aid. If Orban won't play ball, they will apply more pressure in the hope of pushing him from power and finding a more amenable replacement.
The media is simply responding to the fact that the game is now coming to a crucial point and perhaps rousing public opinion in Europe against Orban - though how this would be advantageous, I'm not sure. Less opposition if more heavy handed tactics have to be used??

Rural Hungary

Extremely vicious! I'm sure I read that only around 55% of working age Hungarians pay tax! Less taxes paid = higher taxes = fewer can afford to pay = less taxes paid