Go Back  British Expats > Living & Moving Abroad > Europe
Reload this Page >

Road to a Grecian turn?

Road to a Grecian turn?

Old Jun 22nd 2015, 9:53 am
  #496  
Dunroaming back in UK
 
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 9,923
Garbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by bigglesworth View Post
Just a thought here Eric, but there has been a lot of focus on "over-generous" Greek pensions. Whilst I understand they have been cut since these figures
File:Expenditure on pensions, 2012 (% of GDP) YB15.png - Statistics Explained
What about the others? Italy, France, Austria and Portugal look very high. I wonder what the five or ten year average pension to GDP ratio is?

A key difference of course is that Greek GDP by 2012 was already down some 30 odd percent. Therefore pensions as a percentage of GDP as a mathematical effect was bound to increase. It would appear therefore that as a percentage of GDP Greek pension did not stand out from the pack UNTIL the collapse in GDP. (Leaving aside the argument as to whether that peak of GDP in 2008 was real or froth).
I am not aware that French pensions have been cut though. How about Italian Mike? Do you know?
Biggles - no cuts in Italian pensions so far and unlikely to be so imho. Last pension reform of real effect was in 1995. However, there was a change to retirement age in 2012 under Monti's "Save Italy Bill" which was designed to eliminate the "baby pensioners" as, for example, there was the case of a 28 year old teacher retiring on full pension.

Italy's (huge) debt problems actually pre-date the Euro (Christian-Democrat corruption/incompetence way back when) and Italy has pretty much been running a primary surplus for many years; however, the debt is so astronomic that a primary surplus still means a big defecit in reality.
Garbatellamike is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 9:57 am
  #497  
Hostage Negotiator
 
InVinoVeritas's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 5,173
InVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

As far as I understood it the real complaint is the number of people who have been allowed to take retirement early on overly-generous terms. It seems to have been used as an alternative to unemployment. Tsipras is apparently now offering to tighten up on this but not retroactively.
InVinoVeritas is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 10:34 am
  #498  
BE Forum Addict
 
bigglesworth's Avatar
 
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: The Charente - still smiling.
Posts: 2,624
bigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Hi Mike - yes I knew the surplus. I actually did some work in the late 90s calculating when Italian debt service would overwhelm the Euro, and calculated that it would blow apart between 2010 and 2012!
But still it staggers on, fuelled by ever increasing amounts of fake money.
I used to have a reputation for always being right.
But not always right at the right time!
bigglesworth is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 10:58 am
  #499  
EMR
Banned
 
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 26,724
EMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Which western countries actually have a genuine surplus, certainly not the UK.
All that seems to matter is that a country can service its debts otherwise the whole global financial system would collapse like a pack of cards.
EMR is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 11:12 am
  #500  
Dunroaming back in UK
 
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 9,923
Garbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Which western countries actually have a genuine surplus, certainly not the UK.

EZ: Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Austria and Luxembourg. Outside the monetary union: Denmark and Sweden.
Garbatellamike is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 11:23 am
  #501  
EMR
Banned
 
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 26,724
EMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond reputeEMR has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike View Post
EZ: Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Austria and Luxembourg. Outside the monetary union: Denmark and Sweden.
Take out Germany what is their combined GDP and influence on world financial markets.
EMR is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 11:24 am
  #502  
Dunroaming back in UK
 
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 9,923
Garbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Take out Germany what is their combined GDP and influence on world financial markets.
The square root of not much...........
Garbatellamike is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 3:52 pm
  #503  
BE Forum Addict
 
Maybe1day's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2013
Location: (Ex Liguria)
Posts: 1,807
Maybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Pain was for the Italian Banks. The Italian Public debt has risen from 2134 billion at 31/12/2014 to 2164 at 30/04/2015 not bad for 4 months, >2.8% if I am not mistaken, This will be lied about by Renzi again later in the year when they hide a few (5) months increases (2014) , but it is worse than last year. last year he bandied about 2.9% (Magic Hat number) for the EU but the real figure was 5.6%. (ISTAT numbers). I understand that pensions in Italy take around 30% of GNP, recent figures from the media discussions.
Maybe1day is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 4:48 pm
  #504  
BE Forum Addict
 
bigglesworth's Avatar
 
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: The Charente - still smiling.
Posts: 2,624
bigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond reputebigglesworth has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

30 percent of GNP? Really? I dont know just how much Italy does net earn abroad, but that is more than double the official numbers.
If true, it wont be a question of the last one to leave Italy please switch off the lights. They will be taking the lightbulbs with them!
bigglesworth is offline  
Old Jun 22nd 2015, 5:39 pm
  #505  
BE Forum Addict
 
Maybe1day's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2013
Location: (Ex Liguria)
Posts: 1,807
Maybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

I have Heard this figure quoted twice in political talk shows over the last 10 days, no-one seems alarmed about it !! Forget what they say to the EU. Just a note, My wifes' uncle was a postman he retired at 35 ( like all civil servants could after 15 years of service) and got his pension, supposedly 60% of his pay, index linked. He retired over 30 years ago and is a very happy chappy.
The oficial Italian blurb for the EU says that they pay Unemployment benefit, Social security etc. etc.
The most you would get if sacked would be 2 years unemployment benefit if you are lucky, after that you beg borrow or steal...... Nowt else. This is getting away from Greece however.
If Greece went bankrupt what would happen in reality?

Last edited by Maybe1day; Jun 22nd 2015 at 5:54 pm.
Maybe1day is offline  
Old Jun 23rd 2015, 7:44 am
  #506  
Who - me?
Thread Starter
 
Red Eric's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 13,014
Red Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by bigglesworth View Post
Just a thought here Eric, but there has been a lot of focus on "over-generous" Greek pensions.
There has, hasn't there? I'm glad you used the quotation marks. I'm disgusted by the way the issue has been used to divide and rule - stir up a bit of resentment using selective data to deliberately distort the reality in order to justify the pain that's being dished out. I don't understand how anybody can applaud the cutting of pensions already in payment, anywhere, under any circumstances. If changes are needed they should be medium to long term. To do otherwise is a serious breach of trust between a government and its people.


As Greek pensions have been reduced on average by 27% and in some cases by almost 50% there can be absolutely no case for further cuts. 45% of Greek pensioners live below the official poverty line in Greece. The pension system is pretty much the only form of welfare (other than a limited period of eligibility for unemployment benefit) in Greece. If you don't have a job, a pension or unemployment benefit, you didn't even have access to state healthcare until this government was elected. Because of this crisis, generations of families are now forced to live off the pensions of their parents and grandparents.


The most disturbing thing for me is that pension cuts were pretty much top of the troika shopping list (here in Portugal, too, by the way - although not as drastically as in Greece and at least partially thwarted by the constitutional court) and that nobody raised a voice against it, let alone intervened. Where are those EU institutions that deal with social issues?
Red Eric is offline  
Old Jun 23rd 2015, 8:12 am
  #507  
Dunroaming back in UK
 
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 9,923
Garbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
There has, hasn't there? I'm glad you used the quotation marks. I'm disgusted by the way the issue has been used to divide and rule - stir up a bit of resentment using selective data to deliberately distort the reality in order to justify the pain that's being dished out. I don't understand how anybody can applaud the cutting of pensions already in payment, anywhere, under any circumstances. If changes are needed they should be medium to long term. To do otherwise is a serious breach of trust between a government and its people.


As Greek pensions have been reduced on average by 27% and in some cases by almost 50% there can be absolutely no case for further cuts. 45% of Greek pensioners live below the official poverty line in Greece. The pension system is pretty much the only form of welfare (other than a limited period of eligibility for unemployment benefit) in Greece. If you don't have a job, a pension or unemployment benefit, you didn't even have access to state healthcare until this government was elected. Because of this crisis, generations of families are now forced to live off the pensions of their parents and grandparents.


The most disturbing thing for me is that pension cuts were pretty much top of the troika shopping list (here in Portugal, too, by the way - although not as drastically as in Greece and at least partially thwarted by the constitutional court) and that nobody raised a voice against it, let alone intervened. Where are those EU institutions that deal with social issues?
You are spot on Eric the European elite don't give a stuff about the poor people in Greece only the furtherance of the European Project and the way they have acted reflects that stance.
Garbatellamike is offline  
Old Jun 23rd 2015, 8:17 am
  #508  
Who - me?
Thread Starter
 
Red Eric's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 13,014
Red Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by InVinoVeritas View Post
As far as I understood it the real complaint is the number of people who have been allowed to take retirement early on overly-generous terms. It seems to have been used as an alternative to unemployment. Tsipras is apparently now offering to tighten up on this but not retroactively.
A mainstay of troika programmes is reduction in the size of the public sector. One of the ways to achieve this is through "amicable arrangements", which aren't necessarily all that amicable but at least don't involve employees being slung out on their ear with nothing to live on. Thus, staff close to or at an age where early retirement is a perfectly legitimate possibility are "encouraged" to leave.

It's a method that's used all over the world, not just in Greece, for the benefit to the government of reducing the costs of employment in favour of paying the lower cost of the pensions. And - don't forget - the troika oversaw and approved those measures in Greece during the past 5 years.

It would seem to me grossly unjust and downright perverse, having put these people out to grass, to then cut the pension that was used as an inducement to get rid of them. But that is what has been done and now, apparently, they want more.
Red Eric is offline  
Old Jun 23rd 2015, 8:25 am
  #509  
BE Forum Addict
 
Maybe1day's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2013
Location: (Ex Liguria)
Posts: 1,807
Maybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond reputeMaybe1day has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

2 Options,-
1. It would be better for S European countries to leave the Euro and have maybe the Eros?
2. It would be better for Germany to leave the Euro, they could have the Bark (with no teeth). This is the best option to my mind. The Euro only guarantees 'Uber Alles' and a solid market for the Vaterland to buy and sell in.
Maybe1day is offline  
Old Jun 23rd 2015, 9:29 am
  #510  
Dunroaming back in UK
 
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 9,923
Garbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond reputeGarbatellamike has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
A mainstay of troika programmes is reduction in the size of the public sector. One of the ways to achieve this is through "amicable arrangements", which aren't necessarily all that amicable but at least don't involve employees being slung out on their ear with nothing to live on. Thus, staff close to or at an age where early retirement is a perfectly legitimate possibility are "encouraged" to leave.

It's a method that's used all over the world, not just in Greece, for the benefit to the government of reducing the costs of employment in favour of paying the lower cost of the pensions. And - don't forget - the troika oversaw and approved those measures in Greece during the past 5 years.

It would seem to me grossly unjust and downright perverse, having put these people out to grass, to then cut the pension that was used as an inducement to get rid of them. But that is what has been done and now, apparently, they want more.
I think one thing is for sure - the public sector in Greece is currently way way too big to be supported by the Greek economy. Therefore, cuts in this area are entirely logical and one would have to say entirely necessary.

I can understand the selfish political objective of giving lots of your voters civil service jobs to create a client state so they continue to vote for you but that is also fundamentally wrong and clearly unsustainable in Greece.

Where you are undoubtedly right Eric is that cuts for people receiving the minimal pensions are completely wrong and I would argue unnecessary. Curbing the "baby pensioners" entitlement, however, is entirely the right thing to do.

I think the latest proposals by Syriza are a good start to compromise with the Troika. Curbing early retirement and taxing the rich more are a good start and it is refreshing to see Syriza negotiating not posturing for a change.

Still a way to go but moving slowly in the right direction.
Garbatellamike is offline  

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.