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Road to a Grecian turn?

Road to a Grecian turn?

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Old Mar 1st 2015, 9:30 am
  #136  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric
No, it's not.

Social justice is a widely used and very well understood term which encapsulates a range of concepts in a simple phrase.
Actually, it is not. It means different things to different folk all of whom "know" what it means in very different fashions.
"the way in which human rights are manifested in the everyday lives of people at every level of society".
"The fair and proper administration of laws conforming to the natural law that all persons"
" Promoting tolerance, freedom, and equality for all people regardless of race, sex, orietntation, national origin, handicap, etc.."
And that is just the first three that came up on Google.
My comment was purely addressed to the use of a nebulous term. The fact that you believe you understand its meaning is indicative of that.
The meaning of language is extremely subjective (as in the recent debate on the nature of colours).
The reason I point it up is that social obligations like this are not "free" goods.
I myself have a lot of sympathy with Greece's predicament, as I have said repeatedly. To have achieved a primary budget surplus must have required truly Herculean efforts. However, expanding spending in any respect whatsoever would by definition require further borrowing. The time scale for repayment of existing loans has been stretched to 50 years, and at interest rates that bear no relation to the original agreement (little more than 2 percent in truth).
Personally I think Greece should simply say "Okay guys, we should not have borrowed the money. But equally you should have not lent it to us. Let's chalk it up to experience because there isn't a snowball's chance that we can repay it."
But that would mean accepting that Greece would be frozen out of the capital markets, probably for a decade. Which would mean NO extension of spending, and a renewed focus on tax collection.
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Old Mar 2nd 2015, 7:12 am
  #137  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EMR
He is in the same position as the previous government.
exactly
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Old Mar 2nd 2015, 8:21 am
  #138  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

The new government may be facing some of the same constraints but their policies will be markedly different from the previous government's (and the one prior to it).

Of that I am very sure.
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Old Mar 2nd 2015, 8:53 am
  #139  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric
The new government may be facing some of the same constraints but their policies will be markedly different from the previous government's (and the one prior to it).

Of that I am very sure.
Why,how are they going to finance the changes they want while remaining part of the EU.
If they left the EU and the drachma went into freefall how again would they finance the changes. WHo would lend Greece money ??????
The capital flight from Greece which has already started would be on a scale equal to Noahs flood.
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Old Mar 2nd 2015, 9:03 am
  #140  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric
The new government may be facing some of the same constraints but their policies will be markedly different from the previous government's (and the one prior to it).

Of that I am very sure.
One hopes you are right and that the markedly different policies actually make a marked difference. For sure something in Greece has to change as they simply cannot go on like they have been.

I also think someone should gag the German Finance Minister until the Greek Government have had an opportunity to introduce these different policies and show that they are (or are not) making a difference. The one thing I am sure of is that now is the time for action not perception management or posturing.

I understand that today Varoufakis has stated that he will do everything to ensure the IMF get their money back and will look to renegotiate/reschedule ECB and Eurozone loans - seems entirely pragmatic to me.

Time to stop talking and start doing methinks.
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Old Mar 2nd 2015, 10:50 am
  #141  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EMR
Why,how are they going to finance the changes they want while remaining part of the EU.
It's quite simple really, EMR. Any government decides what policies it will follow (even the Greek government, even under the current restraints - unless the lenders want to own up to being an occupying force rendering the government of Greece irrelevant but I don't think they've gone quite that far yet).

So, having spent the past few weeks getting a strategy together, presenting it to the lenders and getting it agreed, they now have the nod to put it into action.

Where the previous governments were pliant in persuing policies of cutting public sector jobs, wages and services, cutting pensions and raising taxes on those who were already paying them, the new government has pledged to take a different approach (for example chasing down those who evade tax, rooting out corruption, cracking down on contraband etc to raise revenue). That, plus a softer primary surplus demand, plus a degree of freedom about what the government spends its available money on (again, the lenders cannot dictate that), gives some scope for manouevre without additional funds.

They're on probation for 4 months - it's a bit early to tell how they're doing yet but I'm sure come the end of June they'll have something to show.
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Old Mar 2nd 2015, 11:18 am
  #142  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric
It's quite simple really, EMR. Any government decides what policies it will follow (even the Greek government, even under the current restraints - unless the lenders want to own up to being an occupying force rendering the government of Greece irrelevant but I don't think they've gone quite that far yet).

So, having spent the past few weeks getting a strategy together, presenting it to the lenders and getting it agreed, they now have the nod to put it into action.

Where the previous governments were pliant in persuing policies of cutting public sector jobs, wages and services, cutting pensions and raising taxes on those who were already paying them, the new government has pledged to take a different approach (for example chasing down those who evade tax, rooting out corruption, cracking down on contraband etc to raise revenue). That, plus a softer primary surplus demand, plus a degree of freedom about what the government spends its available money on (again, the lenders cannot dictate that), gives some scope for manouevre without additional funds.

They're on probation for 4 months - it's a bit early to tell how they're doing yet but I'm sure come the end of June they'll have something to show.
I admire your optimism which seems to be higher than the average Greek in th street.
You suggest that the lenders cannot dictate, of course they can by stopping lending.
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Old Mar 2nd 2015, 1:59 pm
  #143  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EMR
You suggest that the lenders cannot dictate, of course they can by stopping lending.
Yes EMR I think you are spot on there. Given the current lack of trust I can't see the lenders lending without dictating to some extent and the interest rates that will be demanded by commercial lenders to take the risk of lending to Greece will make things worse not better.

The other emerging issue is the Irish have just thrown a massive spanner in the works by declaring that if the ECB and the Eurozone changes the Greek loans then Ireland is entitled to a new deal as well!

This Irish intervention is unhelpful to say the least and will probably further spook the German Finance Minister and, therefore, reduce the chance of Greece getting some of the relief that I think we all agree it badly needs.

I don't entirely share Eric's optimism but he is right in that Syrzia has to be given the chance to walk-the-walk as well as talk-the-talk. I suppose I am in a state of hope rather than expectation on this one but we will see by April.
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Old Mar 3rd 2015, 9:40 am
  #144  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Interesting article on Reuters UK, , Mixed messages on Greek Bailout !!
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Old Mar 3rd 2015, 10:21 am
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EMR
Interesting article on Reuters UK, , Mixed messages on Greek Bailout !!
Yes I saw that article too EMR. Interesting indeed.
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Old Mar 3rd 2015, 5:35 pm
  #146  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EMR
Interesting article on Reuters UK, , Mixed messages on Greek Bailout !!
It contains the following
Dutch Finance Minister Dijsselbloem offered a potential escape route.
He told the Financial Times that Greece's international creditors could pay part of the 7.2 billion euros remaining in its bailout pot as early as this month if Athens started enacting necessary reforms.
"There are elements that you can start doing today. If you do that, then somewhere in March, maybe there can be a first disbursement. But that would require progress and not just intentions," Dijsselbloem was quoted as saying.
Greece is due to receive the 7.2 billion euros in remaining EU/IMF bailout funds if it successfully completes the program.


To which the response (not reported on the Reuters site as far as I can see) was
Mr. Varoufakis countered Mr. Dijsselbloem’s claim that Greece must implement the bailout-mandated reforms to receive the 7.2 billion euros, by explained that the government is not legitimized to implement the bailout agreement. An extension of the bailout agreement would also mean the prolongation of the dramatic situation in Greece. He argued that “we could have signed the ‘Hardouvelis email’ and received the money. The people did not vote for that though”.
By the end of March to early April the Ministry will have completed its consultation with its European partners regarding the reforms that will be taken, so that the review can continue. Mr. Varoufakis explained that “they will not tell us ‘implement these measures or you will not receive the installment’. We agreed that we will implement the measures we propose and we will be judged on those”.
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Old Mar 4th 2015, 5:48 am
  #147  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric

Mr. Varoufakis countered Mr. Dijsselbloem’s claim that Greece must implement the bailout-mandated reforms to receive the 7.2 billion euros, by explained that the government is not legitimized to implement the bailout agreement. An extension of the bailout agreement would also mean the prolongation of the dramatic situation in Greece. He argued that “we could have signed the ‘Hardouvelis email’ and received the money. The people did not vote for that though”.
By the end of March to early April the Ministry will have completed its consultation with its European partners regarding the reforms that will be taken, so that the review can continue. Mr. Varoufakis explained that “they will not tell us ‘implement these measures or you will not receive the installment’. We agreed that we will implement the measures we propose and we will be judged on those”.
This is such nonsense and demonstrates the Greek government's immaturity in negotiating. They have a mandate to govern, pure and simple. If they do something contrary to their election manifesto (which all governments do from time to time) then they will be held to account through due process - losing a vote of confidence and the calling another election - but this is unlikely to happen because no one really expected them to get anywhere near what they set out to achieve; it was simply a shot nothing.

They lose all credibility when they try to hoodwink the EU through such stupid statements.
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Old Mar 4th 2015, 7:14 am
  #148  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by InVinoVeritas
They lose all credibility when they try to hoodwink the EU through such stupid statements.
I don't think they're trying to hoodwink the EU IVV. They're saying that what was agreed was in the document they submitted to the Eurogroup and does not depend on everything that was previously agreed (ie the so-called Hardouvelis email) being completed first.

Dijsselbloem appears to have said that if they implement the other stuff straight away they could get some of the last tranche early.
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Old Mar 9th 2015, 10:06 am
  #149  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Dijsselbloem is now saying a payment this month is unlikely as the details lack err details!

Greece is talking about having a referendum if the Eurozone don't just give them the money based on their proposals.

Therefore, I suspect today's talks are going to be another bout of mutual posturing with no progress made.
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Old Mar 9th 2015, 11:31 am
  #150  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Greece's Varoufakis warns of referendum if eurozone rejects debt plans

Greek referendum threat looms ahead of eurozone meeting
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