Road to a Grecian turn?
#1171
Polished expat
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 16,831
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Exactly.
Not that they're going to exit.
Not that they're going to exit.
#1172
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
It may be in Roger Bootles's excellent paper on the subject:-
http://albertobagnai.it/wp-content/u...ootle_2012.pdf
The big problem is that there is no way you could even start work on an exit from the Euro without it becoming known. I think at the point the economy implodes. And remember also that the EU bill on exiting the EU (which would have to part and parcel of a Euro exit) would remain denominated in Euros.
http://albertobagnai.it/wp-content/u...ootle_2012.pdf
The big problem is that there is no way you could even start work on an exit from the Euro without it becoming known. I think at the point the economy implodes. And remember also that the EU bill on exiting the EU (which would have to part and parcel of a Euro exit) would remain denominated in Euros.
Where that leaves them is anybody's guess. QE simply must be wound down soon. (Law of diminishing returns, and anyway you cannot borrow ad infinitum from tomorrow, especially as tomorrow becomes today)
But neither Greece, nor Italy, nor now Portugal can actually cover their current expenditure without either defaulting or borrowing more to pay the cost of borrowing. Squares and circles. The next BIS report will be ineteresting.
That can is getting a lot of dents in it as they kick it on down the road
#1174
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,298
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I don't think you can be that certain Eric - it is unlikely but GREXIT is within the art of the possible given the scale of the problem and decreasing room for manoeuvre.
I think the more likely course of action is further extend and pretend but only time will tell.
Oh - no sign of growth then?
I think the more likely course of action is further extend and pretend but only time will tell.
Oh - no sign of growth then?
#1175
Polished expat
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 16,831
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I also think that despite Schäuble's probable desire to see them go, he's in a very small minority. He can and does make things extremely awkward for them by his influence in the Eurogroup and I'd certainly like to see a changing of the guard in there.
I wonder what the French elections will bring? Maybe Macron might hold sway and swing the balance of power a little - he seems to be the right sort of reformer, from what I've read. Something needs to happen to make things a bit more cohesive and purposeful.
#1176
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,298
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Is there a mechanism for chucking a country out of the Eurozone? Because I don't think the Greeks would actually vote for it. And even if there were, it's a very moot point as to whether it would be possible or legal to throw them out of the EU as a result - and that they certainly won't vote for.
I also think that despite Schäuble's probable desire to see them go, he's in a very small minority. He can and does make things extremely awkward for them by his influence in the Eurogroup and I'd certainly like to see a changing of the guard in there.
I wonder what the French elections will bring? Maybe Macron might hold sway and swing the balance of power a little - he seems to be the right sort of reformer, from what I've read. Something needs to happen to make things a bit more cohesive and purposeful.
I also think that despite Schäuble's probable desire to see them go, he's in a very small minority. He can and does make things extremely awkward for them by his influence in the Eurogroup and I'd certainly like to see a changing of the guard in there.
I wonder what the French elections will bring? Maybe Macron might hold sway and swing the balance of power a little - he seems to be the right sort of reformer, from what I've read. Something needs to happen to make things a bit more cohesive and purposeful.
There is something in what you say about Schaube.
I think there are a whole series of elections not just France but again you may be on to something there.
Any sign of growth yet?
#1177
Polished expat
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 16,831
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I'll happily accept your opinion on the matter if you provide meaningful evidence to support it - otherwise I shall remain sceptical on the basis of what I have read so far.
#1178
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
A moot was an Old English meeting for discussion.
Nowadays, only used I think in Law colleges and the phrase "a moot point"
Moot usually nowadays means a law students debating competition - really rather fun- on a particular point of law.
Therefore it absolutely means debatable, undecided, open to argument.
Nowadays, only used I think in Law colleges and the phrase "a moot point"
Moot usually nowadays means a law students debating competition - really rather fun- on a particular point of law.
Therefore it absolutely means debatable, undecided, open to argument.
#1179
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,298
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
A moot was an Old English meeting for discussion.
Nowadays, only used I think in Law colleges and the phrase "a moot point"
Moot usually nowadays means a law students debating competition - really rather fun- on a particular point of law.
Therefore it absolutely means debatable, undecided, open to argument.
Nowadays, only used I think in Law colleges and the phrase "a moot point"
Moot usually nowadays means a law students debating competition - really rather fun- on a particular point of law.
Therefore it absolutely means debatable, undecided, open to argument.
#1180
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,298
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
The only opinion you accept on anything is that of the brilliant Red Eric the infallible - I won't hold my breath waiting for you to accept opinion or fact postulated by anyone else.
#1181
Polished expat
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 16,831
#1183
Polished expat
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 16,831
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
No need to apologise but to be honest I didn't even know it had the meaning you refer to - I only knew of it being used to mean debatable or to raise a matter for discussion. Although I've heard and read the expression frequently, I've never recognised it as being used to mean irrelevant - although I expect it possibly has been and I've missed it.
So I didn't even know that's what you were referring to - I just couldn't be bothered going in to yet another disagreement on such a trivial matter this time.
Anyway, thanks to both - I've learnt something today.
So I didn't even know that's what you were referring to - I just couldn't be bothered going in to yet another disagreement on such a trivial matter this time.
Anyway, thanks to both - I've learnt something today.
#1184
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,298
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
No need to apologise but to be honest I didn't even know it had the meaning you refer to - I only knew of it being used to mean debatable or to raise a matter for discussion. Although I've heard and read the expression frequently, I've never recognised it as being used to mean irrelevant - although I expect it possibly has been and I've missed it.
So I didn't even know that's what you were referring to - I just couldn't be bothered going in to yet another disagreement on such a trivial matter this time.
Anyway, thanks to both - I've learnt something today.
So I didn't even know that's what you were referring to - I just couldn't be bothered going in to yet another disagreement on such a trivial matter this time.
Anyway, thanks to both - I've learnt something today.
#1185
Polished expat
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 16,831