British Expats - EUR/GBP

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Any currency experts lurking on the forum?

What can we expect with the Euro against the Pound in 2013?

I know the likes of Sir HFL of Our Slo have a cellar full of white fivers waiting to be changed at a good rate! Perhaps M of M&G has contacts in the city and can give us the low down on FX rate predictions.

From what I see it could be a while before the the pound buys a decent wedge in Euro Disney:thumbdown:

John.

It really depends on Italy and whether they will pull out of the Eurozone or not. You can keep up to date with the latest currency news by visiting the site on my signature post.

Hope that helps a little!

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRam (Post 10603269)

News is great, but lets have some forecasts from you financial gurus.

So forecasts for the next six months please. Are we heading towards 1:1 or 1:3 from the 1:15 point for GBP to EUROS?

Thanks.

Realistically, GBP/EUR has been in a downtrend since July of last year when Mario Draghi stated that the European Central bank (ECB) would “do whatever it takes to save the Euro”. Whilst the fundamental problems in Europe still persist (high levels of debt with low growth combined with high unemployment), the imminent break-up of the Euro appears to have been averted.

Of course the other side of the equation is the pound, which has suffered in the early part of the year for several reasons. Firstly, it looks like the UK economy may be dragged into an unprecedented triple dip recession meaning the Bank of England are likely to increase the asset purchase program i.e. print more money through QE. Secondly, the UK has lost its triple A credit rating which has also weighed on the once proud pound. With Mervyn King and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee doing their level best to weaken the pound by suggesting, a weaker pound is needed to help rebalance the economy sterling is unlikely to find many friends anytime soon.

With the outlook for the pound as it is, any rally in GBP/EUR is likely to be triggered by a deterioration of conditions in Europe. As mentioned above this is not beyond the realms of possibility, given the mess they’re in and of course there is the elephant in the room (Italian election results). If the Italians are unable to form a coalition government (not looking that likely at this stage) or end up deciding to abandon austerity and possibly the Euro, then we should see a reversal of the current down trend. However, anyone who wishes to predict the outcome of the Italian political process is a braver man than me.

Stupidly low interest rates for years and printing of money, the pound isn't going anywhere fast.

Looks like the UK government has a stash of Euros. DC has just flown 1000000 Euros in cash out to the lads in the forces in case the cash machines dry up!!!

Could Cyprus be the place to holiday this summer ?? Any travel agents from Thomas Cook or Thompsons please advise. Will the black market sellers be on the streets accepting anything from SITS (got some of those notes left but mainly behind glass in picture frames plus coin in soxs as door stops) to eurobond IOUs. In or out of the euro for this place but what is the answer for Europe as a whole ? Nobody seems to have a clue. Answers on a postcard to Frau Merkel. I thought the pictures of her with a moustache flattered !!
Best from Poundland .
Michael

Most places in Cyprus taking cash only but not sure if that's any currency. Mind you with the extra baggage check in charge it could work out expensive to take a suitcase full of cash!! Frau Merkel is holding all the cards and most of the gas. My Auntie in Berlin is enjoying a fully heated apartment and no problems drawing a monkey out of the ATM for daily needs.

John.

I was listening to a report on RT today and the guy (sorry did not catch his name) said on there that unless Slovenia sorts out the political unrest very soon we will be looking for a bail out in the second half of the year.

So what do we do? Do we bail out now...

Hi booboo,

Bail out! Where to? The UK is pants as well. The main consideration is securing any assets. Cash in the bank is now a liability. If you have a mortgage free property and income to cover living costs you are in a good position. If you have serious amounts of cash in the bank I would buy land or other non moveable assets.

Was reading that on reuters this weekend that the most likely place to need a bailout after Cyprus was Slovenia in the second half of the year if they can't turn things around quickly, not an exciting time to be looking to relocate there.

Will Slovenes new MrsT be any good? She will have to balance the 'household' budget very quickly with her new bank friend in finance.
I have confidence in women, look how the Arentinian (president?) got the ear of the new Pope before anyone else. OK she was playing at home so to speak.

For the record it has started to snow in London , ts brass monkeys but thank goodness it is only a cold flurry and famous last words - will not stick.
Enjoy the Bank Holiday everyone. Michael

Build this woman a statue if she manages to turn it around.............However I think she is just delaying the inevitable EU bailout.

An EU bailout would probably result in even more tax increases, which would likely result in large scale civil unrest

Not that I think too much on what this guy has to say.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...rozone-bailout

Chris was speaking with the girl at NLB today, she said we had nothing to worry about.. because.... the head man was out to talk with them and had assured them they had nothing to worry about......bless......

Another Eurozone country needing a bail out!. It seems like a trend emerging me thinks. Here in the UK Mr Rich Ricci the boss of Barclays takes £17m in bonus deals while the "banks" struggle on. Seems like the poor bloke in the street will pay for the banking crisis by getting their pockets picked. Here in the UK it is taking the form of pi** poor interest rates and a steady increase in indirect taxation, not to mention the steady increase in living costs. Unfortunately most folk are slaves to the banks and live to repay the banks!