Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Dec 13th 2008, 4:30 pm
#16
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Saskatoon apparently had asking prices at record levels last month, which still amazes me; no idea whether the sellers are getting even close to those prices, but houses around here are still selling.
Dec 13th 2008, 4:52 pm
#17
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Location: Cascadian Autonomous Elysian Region
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Similarly, a nice upscale pad on Kootenay Lake for three quarters of a lump ?
Or for the same marker a lakeview in the Okanagan, but a lakeview over dozens of rooftops, with 3' of space between neighbours, and 12' of driveway ?
R.
Last edited by Rich_007; Dec 13th 2008 at 4:54 pm.
Dec 13th 2008, 4:53 pm
#18
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
I believe you can pay more like $800,000 for an apartment overlooking the golf course, if you really want to. Probably get a good view of Walmart from the upper floors too.
Dec 13th 2008, 5:01 pm
#19
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
R.
Dec 13th 2008, 5:07 pm
#20
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Location: Beautiful BC
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
The article I quoted is Canadian, and is a property price tracking site. I also watch the development of skyscrapers in vancouver closely, and it seems that many projects are either being cancelled or put on hold. I also had Christmas lunch with an incredibly wealthy Canadian when i visited Vancouver last year, and he expected the Vancouver market to have a 30-40% adjustment as it was so far out touch with supporting fundamentals (income). Since he owned a number of properties himself, he had nothing to gain by saying such a thing.
Personally, I'm inclined to agree with your comment that things are worse here (UK). Our economy is going down the toilet quickly, Canada has a much brighter future than we do, especially in BC where 100% of power will be generated by hydro projects by 2016. Energy is going to be the determining factor of future economic success, and although Canada has a few tough years ahead of it where property deflation and rising unemployment will make things feel less rosy, England has decades of decline ahead of it IMHO.
Referring to the idiot posting above...the recession might be global, but different economies will be effected to greater or lesser extents, and will be better or worse placed to benefit from the recovery when it arrives. Due to it's abundance of natural resources, and particularly Oil, canada will be able to climb out of this economic hole much earlier than Britain which seems to only sell insurance now.
Personally, I'm inclined to agree with your comment that things are worse here (UK). Our economy is going down the toilet quickly, Canada has a much brighter future than we do, especially in BC where 100% of power will be generated by hydro projects by 2016. Energy is going to be the determining factor of future economic success, and although Canada has a few tough years ahead of it where property deflation and rising unemployment will make things feel less rosy, England has decades of decline ahead of it IMHO.
Referring to the idiot posting above...the recession might be global, but different economies will be effected to greater or lesser extents, and will be better or worse placed to benefit from the recovery when it arrives. Due to it's abundance of natural resources, and particularly Oil, canada will be able to climb out of this economic hole much earlier than Britain which seems to only sell insurance now.
Dec 13th 2008, 5:34 pm
#21
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,830
Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Is it just me, or does anyone else have trouble taking that site seriously? For some reason I can't bring myself to form any considered opinion from figures given on a "Plunge-o-Meter".
Its analysis doesn't say if it is discussing asking prices or selling prices. It also fails to explain the correlation between real estate prices and adverts for sexual services. Which is a shame, as that could be the most enjoyable read.
Its analysis doesn't say if it is discussing asking prices or selling prices. It also fails to explain the correlation between real estate prices and adverts for sexual services. Which is a shame, as that could be the most enjoyable read.
The bio of the guy that it seems created it http://www.brianripley.com/resume.htm
Dec 13th 2008, 6:01 pm
#22
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
The bio of the guy that it seems created it http://www.brianripley.com/resume.htm
LOLI see that he lists website design as one of his strengths and that he expects to earn a minimum of $25 an hour.
Judging from the design of the site TheBear linked to I wouldn't pay him 25 cents.
Dec 13th 2008, 6:06 pm
#23
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
I just looked at the website, and then the link to the guy's bio. I've never heard of him, and I've been around real estate since 1976. It doesn't look like a credible website at all.
Dec 13th 2008, 6:16 pm
#24
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: South Fredericton NB
Posts: 294
Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
He quotes bob hoye at institutionaladvisors(.)com has he any credibility?
Dec 13th 2008, 6:33 pm
#25
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Location: British Columbia
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Just like some of the nonsense that appeared about ever increasing prices on the way up, there is some prime guff appearing about the depth of potential corrections now. Some wishful thinking to offset the rubbish Sterling exchange rate, maybe; conditions in the UK are very different.
Yes, people who NEED to sell are in a pretty weak position right now, especially as we're also into the traditional flat period over Christmas, but that doesn't apply to every listing.
We're looking at a few open homes again this weekend; prices down, a bit, and sellers more willing to take offers but a) a lot of the good stuff has been pulled off the market and b) Vancouver is still all about location, location, location, especially if looking at houses; there's still not enough of the nice bits to go around, and there never will be.
Condos, well, yes, potential oversupply in the high-rises and developers in need of cash, so if that's your bag now would be a good time to be bargain hunting.
As some other posters have pointed out, Vancouver has more of a tendency to yo-yo than some other parts of the world. Take advantage of the downswing, if you can.
Yes, people who NEED to sell are in a pretty weak position right now, especially as we're also into the traditional flat period over Christmas, but that doesn't apply to every listing.
We're looking at a few open homes again this weekend; prices down, a bit, and sellers more willing to take offers but a) a lot of the good stuff has been pulled off the market and b) Vancouver is still all about location, location, location, especially if looking at houses; there's still not enough of the nice bits to go around, and there never will be.
Condos, well, yes, potential oversupply in the high-rises and developers in need of cash, so if that's your bag now would be a good time to be bargain hunting.
As some other posters have pointed out, Vancouver has more of a tendency to yo-yo than some other parts of the world. Take advantage of the downswing, if you can.
Dec 13th 2008, 6:41 pm
#26
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Is it just me, or does anyone else have trouble taking that site seriously? For some reason I can't bring myself to form any considered opinion from figures given on a "Plunge-o-Meter".
Its analysis doesn't say if it is discussing asking prices or selling prices. It also fails to explain the correlation between real estate prices and adverts for sexual services. Which is a shame, as that could be the most enjoyable read.
Its analysis doesn't say if it is discussing asking prices or selling prices. It also fails to explain the correlation between real estate prices and adverts for sexual services. Which is a shame, as that could be the most enjoyable read.
The Vancouver Real Estate sale price data are from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). They advise that "the Vancouver Housing Price Index offers only a benchmark in which to track price trends and consumers should be careful not to misinterpret index figures as actual prices."
Dec 13th 2008, 9:17 pm
#27
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Dec 14th 2008, 7:35 am
#28
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
I agree with some of what you say, but "having lunch with an incredibly wealthy Canadian" still doesn't give you a credible insight, just his opinion. I have worked in commercial conveyancing and with developers and apartment building owners, for over 30 years. Many of them are incredibly wealthy too. They also believe the adjustment is well overdue, and the market will bounce back. Just sit tight and wait. Real estate here is very cyclicle (sp?), and I remember several periods like this in the past. We go from boom to bust and back again.
The reason I quoted that guy was that he was a very shrewd businessman and gave sound economic arguments as to why the market was going to crash at a time when people were saying it wouldn't. From what he said and what I've read, Vancouver's economy is still very reliant on traditional industries such as lumber and shipping. There is also a large service sector now, and Tourism is important too, but all these areas, and paticularly the former are going to be very badly effected in the next few years, but they are also areas that can bounce back quickly when other countries start to prosper again, which supports what you are saying about prices going up quickly again.
IMO there will be a window of a couple of years when property in BC will be cheap in recent terms, but if you miss it then there may be a long wait before another opportunity. I think that particularly after the Olympics, there will be some amazing buying opportunities, especially if you want a downtown apartment, or a home in somewhere like Squamish. Of course you have to have a sizeable deposit and be able to get a mortgage to make the most of such an opportunity.
Last edited by TheBear; Dec 14th 2008 at 7:40 am.
Dec 14th 2008, 12:28 pm
#29
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Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Is it just me, or does anyone else have trouble taking that site seriously? For some reason I can't bring myself to form any considered opinion from figures given on a "Plunge-o-Meter".
Its analysis doesn't say if it is discussing asking prices or selling prices. It also fails to explain the correlation between real estate prices and adverts for sexual services. Which is a shame, as that could be the most enjoyable read.
Its analysis doesn't say if it is discussing asking prices or selling prices. It also fails to explain the correlation between real estate prices and adverts for sexual services. Which is a shame, as that could be the most enjoyable read.
Lol
Yogi
Dec 14th 2008, 6:13 pm
#30
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,830
Re: Property Crash in Canada is worsening
Sounds very much like the UK. I've been expecting a crash in the UK since 2004...so got that a bit wrong! Although, if it had gone down then, we wouldn't be seeing the destructive kind of adjustments we're getting now.
The reason I quoted that guy was that he was a very shrewd businessman and gave sound economic arguments as to why the market was going to crash at a time when people were saying it wouldn't. From what he said and what I've read, Vancouver's economy is still very reliant on traditional industries such as lumber and shipping. There is also a large service sector now, and Tourism is important too, but all these areas, and paticularly the former are going to be very badly effected in the next few years, but they are also areas that can bounce back quickly when other countries start to prosper again, which supports what you are saying about prices going up quickly again.
IMO there will be a window of a couple of years when property in BC will be cheap in recent terms, but if you miss it then there may be a long wait before another opportunity. I think that particularly after the Olympics, there will be some amazing buying opportunities, especially if you want a downtown apartment, or a home in somewhere like Squamish. Of course you have to have a sizeable deposit and be able to get a mortgage to make the most of such an opportunity.
The reason I quoted that guy was that he was a very shrewd businessman and gave sound economic arguments as to why the market was going to crash at a time when people were saying it wouldn't. From what he said and what I've read, Vancouver's economy is still very reliant on traditional industries such as lumber and shipping. There is also a large service sector now, and Tourism is important too, but all these areas, and paticularly the former are going to be very badly effected in the next few years, but they are also areas that can bounce back quickly when other countries start to prosper again, which supports what you are saying about prices going up quickly again.
IMO there will be a window of a couple of years when property in BC will be cheap in recent terms, but if you miss it then there may be a long wait before another opportunity. I think that particularly after the Olympics, there will be some amazing buying opportunities, especially if you want a downtown apartment, or a home in somewhere like Squamish. Of course you have to have a sizeable deposit and be able to get a mortgage to make the most of such an opportunity.
Was not at all impressed with his use of grammar or design from someone who is in the profession as a marketing specialist. A consultant for $25 an hour, that's a bargain? You cannot get a landscaper for that in Vancouver, top notch consultants can be 10 times that.