izzi81

I know no one can predict the financial markets, but I gather there is an imminent announcement this week re Canadian GDP and trade figures. I was wondering if any of you knowledgeable people could give me a rough idea of what this is likely to be? Up or down? I'm in the middle of converting our money, and have definitely won by waiting till the UK GDP news was out because the rate went up about 2c. Should I be transferring all now because the Canadian news will be positive for the $CDN? Or wait a bit longer because it might be marginal or negative news?

Those 1c-2c-3c changes make a scary difference!

chiefmissile

If we could answer that question we would all be rich But on a serious note, things are on the way up for the £, so I would be waiting a little longer before I changed all my cash, drip feed an amount that gives your the best rate and min fees. I use http://www.sgm-fx.com/

Regards

Andrew

izzi81

yeah I know it's an impossible one Just have no feel for how Canada is doing economy-wise so don't know whether to expect it to be good or bad. I find myself glued to the rate tracker these days lol. I've exchanged just under half of our cash so far as the rate has been pretty decent (compared to the last month or so) so I guess I'll just keep chipping away at it - unless there's a vast improvement for some reason! It's not like we have loads of money to change, but in a way that's why I want to make the best of it... we need all the help we can get lol

chiefmissile

Canadian dollar is very strong, they have a strong economy. However the Federal Government would prefer the dollar to be weaker against all major currencies, as that would improve demand for exports. its only a matter of time before we see the rate go back to where it was in 2008 $2.10 to the £

Regards

Andrew

izzi81

lol I don't see that happening any time soon, the pound is too feeble and the UK economy isn't strengthening hugely any time soon. Plus we're moving this month so after that it will be too late!

chiefmissile

yeah when I said "a matter of time" I meant in the next 3-4 years. Good luck with your move, we are playing the frustrating waiting game waiting on MR, its a strange old process, no 2 applications are the same.

I see that you got your COPR way back, I take it you activated it some time ago and are making the permanent move now?

Good luck

Andrew

Atlantic Xpat

Do you have anyway of backing up this assertion or is this just your opinion. If the latter, what gives you that idea?

Theoldfields

We are in exactly the same position. It's impossible to be sure what will happen to exchange rates in the short-term and the long-term is not much easier but having said that it does feel like a bad time to be transferring everything into CAD so what we decided to do was to transfer what we'll need for the next few months and then wait and see what happens.

In my work we pay experts to forecast exchange rates and they're wrong more often than not so it's probably a matter of getting lucky. Good luck.

izzi81

Andrew - yes we landed last year and are just moving now. We'd thought about going last summer last year but weren't quite ready... now the big move is very imminent!

theoldfields - the rate has been relatively consistent for the last wee while - in that I mean it's not gone below 1.50 but it's not really gone much above 1.60 either. I don't hold out much hope for a shoot up towards 1.80 any time soon so as long as it's nearer 1.60 I've decided to be happy with that. Given that if I'd decided to change money last month I'd be out by nearly 5c on the £ I'm considering it 'lucky' and just going with it. I've decided no one can tell me where it'll be in 3 months time so I might as well just do it now and be done with it

Former Lancastrian

You could try phoning all those financial analysts who correctly predicted the sub prime mortgage and bank fiascos in 2008 and the meltdown after.
I think their number is 1 800 WE ****ED UP.

chiefmissile

nice one.

Andrew

orly

Pretty sure the company I used (currencyfair) allow you to "pick" the exchange rate you want to have. Means you can have the money set aside but it doesn't get converted until the exchange rate hits your desired level. Of course it relies on the currencies involved actually ever reaching your target which isn't guaranteed.

I'd imagine most other foreign exchange outfits do similar functionality.

izzi81

Yeah ours does that too but it's whether it reaches the target I want lol. Trying to work out what is an achievable target is the trickiest part for sure.

chiefmissile

Yip its called taking a spot rate, you have to pay 10% up front and obviously it may never get to the rate you order it at.

Regards

Andrew

orly

Pretty sure CurrencyFair doesn't take 10% for that