UK house prices slump 2.6% in a month. Property speculators debate the likelyhood of a looming house price crash... http://uk.messages.finance.yahoo.com...of=2&frt=2#596

Thank goodness our sale is nearly through!

Just have to keep fingers crossed they dont pull out in hope of waiting and getting a cheaper price!

It would take some really "business-like" buyers to pull out at this stage. The emotional investment will keep them going I would think. But if I was planning to leave the UK in the next few years I would seriously be putting my house on the market now and then just renting until visas came through. This time next year the possibility of "cashing-in" on high prices and moving to Canada with suitcases of house equity might be something of a pipe dream.

Yeah think your're spot on there Paul.

Get out when the goings good

This kind of thing was being spoken about in 2004 when we moved to Canada and so far it's not happened. I'm no expert but I'm sure that whatever downturn there is won't last and five years from now house values will be higher than they are now.

I hope I'm wrong and they drop thousands and thousands. If they do then I'll be moving back!

Stepnek lets hope you are wrong..LOL...as we're also waiting to head back 'Home'.
Seems to be some nice % drops on propertysnakes website.

Speaking of slumping, $2.05 CDN to the Pound, next stop $2.00/pound.

Spot rate right now is $2.0458

If you are selling pounds it's $2.00 now.

http://www.tdcommercialbanking.com/t...ance/rates.jsp

I have no plans to move back but I think you are wrong. I think it was due in 2004 and low interest rates coupled with a bit of false optimism just postponed it. The Northern Rock thing is probably the "sign" that will kill a lot of that optimism. I mean who ever heard of people making a run on a bank? It shows a serious loss of confidence.

Those people who've benefitted from property inflation in Canada e.g. Calgary etc could move back to the UK in the slump, buy there, ride the next upside and return to Canada considerably richer than yao!

Its a thought...

I not so sure, a few economists predicted back around 2003 that the UK market would hit a low in mid 2008
Most based this on world markets and sustainability of the long term trend in house value growth
The market could only support housing growth for as long as there were buyers, when they dried up the sub-prime market allowed people to stay in the market who would normally be pushed out by the normal restrictions, so kept some of the market moving. But as a slow correction didn’t kick in, then something would eventually have to give,) the rapid collapse of the US sub prime market means a faster correction of the market will take place, but later than originally expected (really delayed by the inventiveness of the lenders) the net result may still be the same
However I suspect that we may see a bigger overshoot now with a faster correction and that the low may now occur later than predicted (my guess early 2009) but with a period where houses are in real term end up much lower than their real market value, largely because people will delay buying in fear of continuing devaluation followed by a slow growth in confidence bringing the market back to it long term real value
This will be followed by lots of politicians promising to end the boom bust cycle, and nothing will happen,
The banks will just like the last two times make money overall, the only losses will be the consumers who bought to late, or over borrowed and a small minority that are selling and leaving, and a few smaller building societies as well as many of the high street estate agents will go bust
History repeats its self, and the public will again blame the government (when in reality it was Joe blow’s greed that did it all just like the last two times)

Very true. When things go bad its the government's fault. But it's funny how nobody credits the government when they make a pile of money on their house though! When prices go up people privately congratulate themselves on what a shrewd purchase they made and how much value those new curtains added!

Totally agree about the greed part MikeUK*.

It's just another bubble waiting to burst.

At the end of day, I personally think (although I am sure others will disagree) property is a solid investment for the long term - people will always need somewhere to live and with the housing shortage in the UK there is an element of old fashioned supply and demand.

The trouble is when you need cash / equity short term and may need to sell into an unknown market. We are relatively lucky that at present we don't have a family that needs housing or rather finidng a home for.

I have always predicted that house prices will come down when interest rates rise - we'll have to wait and see if I was right and if so how right. I think we will really see it in the next year or so, when all those 2 year fixed rate mortgages come to an end, and people have stretched themselves too far and can't afford higher mortgage payments.

We considered selling the house in the UK, but our tenants are no trouble and very happy, we got a 10 year fixed rate mortgage when interest rates were at their lowest, so we are going to sit out any potential fall in value, and look to the long term*.

Anyway, to those that are needing to sell up in the UK to home / house your family in Canada, I hope your house sales continue to go through ok.