GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
#46
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Location: Airdrie, Alberta
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Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
I'll second that! What a nightmare. Still, as others have said before in this thread, our move to Canada is not based solely on financial reasons. However, we are reconsidering our expectations of the house we will be able to afford! Even so, we will still be able to afford a much bigger place than in the UK. Great thread.
#47
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Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,782
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
I'll second that! What a nightmare. Still, as others have said before in this thread, our move to Canada is not based solely on financial reasons. However, we are reconsidering our expectations of the house we will be able to afford! Even so, we will still be able to afford a much bigger place than in the UK. Great thread.
Last edited by johnh009; Oct 12th 2009 at 2:03 pm.
#48
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,830
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
Not keen on this retirement lark though. Now looking for a job, much to the OH delight.
#49
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
We are waiting to exchange on our house at the minute. The exchange rate is causing lots of grief in our household. Everytime I check it it's even lower!
I want to go regardless but my husband is having a hissy fit and thinks we should pull out of the sale of our house and wait it out here. If we do this we'll never go as my oldest child is 16 at the end of the week.
I'd happily leave my money over here and transfer what we need as it comes along, but we're stuck with needing to buy a house as we are taking over four cats and two dogs and will not find a rental that will let us have all those.
I want to go regardless but my husband is having a hissy fit and thinks we should pull out of the sale of our house and wait it out here. If we do this we'll never go as my oldest child is 16 at the end of the week.
I'd happily leave my money over here and transfer what we need as it comes along, but we're stuck with needing to buy a house as we are taking over four cats and two dogs and will not find a rental that will let us have all those.
#50
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
There have been a lot of interesting points on here, a big shock was learning of the double whammy effect of being hit over the head with a low rate followed by a kick in the pants CGT hit if the rate subsequently increases.
I have looked at the rates over the last 20 years (see below averages for each year) and what it does show is that the current rate is not unusual in the long term. If we see our application though, our predicament would then be wether to make an early landing / transfer on the assumption things will get worse - in one of the years I listed the lowest rate was in the $1.30s !!!! or wait it out till the last possible minute which with meds this month would be Oct 10. The only thing I can pin any hope on is that the Tories will grasp the nettle on public spending etc and that the markets will respond positively.And yes I know I'm assuming they will win - but baring a miracle Gordon is gone.
Year Average
1979 $2.49
1980 $2.72
1981 $2.43
1982 $2.16
1983 $1.87
1984 $1.73
1985 $1.77
1986 $2.04
1987 $2.17
1988 $2.19
1989 $1.94
1990 $2.08
1991 $2.03
1992 $2.13
1993 $1.94
1994 $2.09
1995 $2.17
1996 $2.13
1997 $2.27
1998 $2.16
1999 $2.40
2000 $2.25
2001 $2.23
2002 $2.36
2003 $2.29
2004 $2.38
2005 $2.21
2006 $2.09
2007 $2.15
2008 $1.96
2009 $1.80
I have looked at the rates over the last 20 years (see below averages for each year) and what it does show is that the current rate is not unusual in the long term. If we see our application though, our predicament would then be wether to make an early landing / transfer on the assumption things will get worse - in one of the years I listed the lowest rate was in the $1.30s !!!! or wait it out till the last possible minute which with meds this month would be Oct 10. The only thing I can pin any hope on is that the Tories will grasp the nettle on public spending etc and that the markets will respond positively.And yes I know I'm assuming they will win - but baring a miracle Gordon is gone.
Year Average
1979 $2.49
1980 $2.72
1981 $2.43
1982 $2.16
1983 $1.87
1984 $1.73
1985 $1.77
1986 $2.04
1987 $2.17
1988 $2.19
1989 $1.94
1990 $2.08
1991 $2.03
1992 $2.13
1993 $1.94
1994 $2.09
1995 $2.17
1996 $2.13
1997 $2.27
1998 $2.16
1999 $2.40
2000 $2.25
2001 $2.23
2002 $2.36
2003 $2.29
2004 $2.38
2005 $2.21
2006 $2.09
2007 $2.15
2008 $1.96
2009 $1.80
#51
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Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,782
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon
Last edited by johnh009; Oct 13th 2009 at 11:36 pm.
#52
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
I am starting to think that they are softening the UK public up for entry into the Euro. The Czech Republic has just signed the Lisbon Treaty and there is only one more country left in the EU to sign (Italy) I believe. Watch the pound stabilise when it reaches around par with the Euro, then, Brown will drop the news on the British public. Remember, he also signed the Lisbon Treaty for the UK, also without consulting the public.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon
#53
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Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,782
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
That's true, but his buddy Tony Blair is making waves to become Head of the European Parliament so Brown may have it forced on him. But, yes, you are correct, given their debt, the UK would not actually qualify to join the Euro currency.
#54
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Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Heritage Valley in Edmonton
Posts: 894
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
Should have joined the Euro from the beginning.
#55
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
I am starting to think that they are softening the UK public up for entry into the Euro. The Czech Republic has just signed the Lisbon Treaty and there is only one more country left in the EU to sign (Italy) I believe. Watch the pound stabilise when it reaches around par with the Euro, then, Brown will drop the news on the British public. Remember, he also signed the Lisbon Treaty for the UK, also without consulting the public.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon
I think people need to stop panicing (I for one have- but in times like this you need to be rational). The pound and US Dollar are both fairing badly at the moment and that is because traditionally they were viewed as solid currencies for currency speculators. Now is probably a good time to stock up on pounds if you have another currency as I think in the next 3/4 months it will hit the bottom and the rebound will begin. I will not put a time on the rebound but I expect the pound to be higher versus the Euro and Canadian dollar in 12 months than it is now.
Remember currency is a market in it's own right and linking the currency to the negative situation in the UK is a dangerous game to play.
It is important we point out some key economic facts- because there has been some slightly misleading information posted in this thread and talk of the Canadian economy doing well and being ahead of the UK is frankly ludicrous.
1/ Canada has a national debt at 64% of it's GDP versus the UK which is 57%.
2/ I know it may be measured differently and I don't have the figure to hand but unemployment is still higher in Canada.
3/ The central interest rate in Canada is 0.25% versus 0.5% in the UK.
The bottomline for me is there is no other factor than speculative currency trading that explains the current rate of exchange between the pound and the canadian dollar. Therefore I re-iterate that the bottom is just around the corner.
Last edited by JamesM; Oct 14th 2009 at 9:41 am.
#56
Account Closed
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 88
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
I am starting to think that they are softening the UK public up for entry into the Euro. The Czech Republic has just signed the Lisbon Treaty and there is only one more country left in the EU to sign (Italy) I believe. Watch the pound stabilise when it reaches around par with the Euro, then, Brown will drop the news on the British public. Remember, he also signed the Lisbon Treaty for the UK, also without consulting the public.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1654931.ece
another reason to add to the list of why i'm off!
#57
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Thread Starter
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 47
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
I don't think this is the case. The last thing the UK needs at the moment is interest rates being set by a European central bank. I think we may get the Euro eventually buit I think it will be implemented when the Labour Party come back in 15 years.
I think people need to stop panicing (I for one have- but in times like this you need to be rational). The pound and US Dollar are both fairing badly at the moment and that is because traditionally they were viewed as solid currencies for currency speculators. Now is probably a good time to stock up on pounds if you have another currency as I think in the next 3/4 months it will hit the bottom and the rebound will begin. I will not put a time on the rebound but I expect the pound to be higher versus the Euro and Canadian dollar in 12 months than it is now.
Remember currency is a market in it's own right and linking the currency to the negative situation in the UK is a dangerous game to play.
It is important we point out some key economic facts- because there has been some slightly misleading information posted in this thread and talk of the Canadian economy doing well and being ahead of the UK is frankly ludicrous.
1/ Canada has a national debt at 64% of it's GDP versus the UK which is 57%.
2/ I know it may be measured differently and I don't have the figure to hand but unemployment is still higher in Canada.
3/ The central interest rate in Canada is 0.25% versus 0.5% in the UK.
The bottomline for me is there is no other factor than speculative currency trading that explains the current rate of exchange between the pound and the canadian dollar. Therefore I re-iterate that the bottom is just around the corner.
I think people need to stop panicing (I for one have- but in times like this you need to be rational). The pound and US Dollar are both fairing badly at the moment and that is because traditionally they were viewed as solid currencies for currency speculators. Now is probably a good time to stock up on pounds if you have another currency as I think in the next 3/4 months it will hit the bottom and the rebound will begin. I will not put a time on the rebound but I expect the pound to be higher versus the Euro and Canadian dollar in 12 months than it is now.
Remember currency is a market in it's own right and linking the currency to the negative situation in the UK is a dangerous game to play.
It is important we point out some key economic facts- because there has been some slightly misleading information posted in this thread and talk of the Canadian economy doing well and being ahead of the UK is frankly ludicrous.
1/ Canada has a national debt at 64% of it's GDP versus the UK which is 57%.
2/ I know it may be measured differently and I don't have the figure to hand but unemployment is still higher in Canada.
3/ The central interest rate in Canada is 0.25% versus 0.5% in the UK.
The bottomline for me is there is no other factor than speculative currency trading that explains the current rate of exchange between the pound and the canadian dollar. Therefore I re-iterate that the bottom is just around the corner.
Scenario,
Land - 1 Jan 2010 when the exchange rate is say; $1.60
Left behind UK assests, house(rented out) & savings valued at £350K or $560K on the date of landing.
1 Jan 2011 exchange rate say,$2.00, UK house sold & savings transferred to Canada and now worth $700k (assuming no other capital growth)
Capital gain due to improvement in exchange rate = $160K (CGT payable on 50%) therefore tax to pay in Canada would be $20.3k
Last edited by SNOWDUDE; Oct 14th 2009 at 10:25 am. Reason: Corrections
#58
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,782
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
I don't think this is the case. The last thing the UK needs at the moment is interest rates being set by a European central bank. I think we may get the Euro eventually buit I think it will be implemented when the Labour Party come back in 15 years.
I think people need to stop panicing (I for one have- but in times like this you need to be rational). The pound and US Dollar are both fairing badly at the moment and that is because traditionally they were viewed as solid currencies for currency speculators. Now is probably a good time to stock up on pounds if you have another currency as I think in the next 3/4 months it will hit the bottom and the rebound will begin. I will not put a time on the rebound but I expect the pound to be higher versus the Euro and Canadian dollar in 12 months than it is now.
Remember currency is a market in it's own right and linking the currency to the negative situation in the UK is a dangerous game to play.
It is important we point out some key economic facts- because there has been some slightly misleading information posted in this thread and talk of the Canadian economy doing well and being ahead of the UK is frankly ludicrous.
1/ Canada has a national debt at 64% of it's GDP versus the UK which is 57%.
2/ I know it may be measured differently and I don't have the figure to hand but unemployment is still higher in Canada.
3/ The central interest rate in Canada is 0.25% versus 0.5% in the UK.
The bottomline for me is there is no other factor than speculative currency trading that explains the current rate of exchange between the pound and the canadian dollar. Therefore I re-iterate that the bottom is just around the corner.
I think people need to stop panicing (I for one have- but in times like this you need to be rational). The pound and US Dollar are both fairing badly at the moment and that is because traditionally they were viewed as solid currencies for currency speculators. Now is probably a good time to stock up on pounds if you have another currency as I think in the next 3/4 months it will hit the bottom and the rebound will begin. I will not put a time on the rebound but I expect the pound to be higher versus the Euro and Canadian dollar in 12 months than it is now.
Remember currency is a market in it's own right and linking the currency to the negative situation in the UK is a dangerous game to play.
It is important we point out some key economic facts- because there has been some slightly misleading information posted in this thread and talk of the Canadian economy doing well and being ahead of the UK is frankly ludicrous.
1/ Canada has a national debt at 64% of it's GDP versus the UK which is 57%.
2/ I know it may be measured differently and I don't have the figure to hand but unemployment is still higher in Canada.
3/ The central interest rate in Canada is 0.25% versus 0.5% in the UK.
The bottomline for me is there is no other factor than speculative currency trading that explains the current rate of exchange between the pound and the canadian dollar. Therefore I re-iterate that the bottom is just around the corner.
Maybe with an election around the corner, the pound is being manipulated downwards as a last ditch attempt by Brown to revive the economy.
#59
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
Really? £2b wasted by April 2007 and Gold now hitting an all time high? I call that throwing money away!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1654931.ece
another reason to add to the list of why i'm off!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1654931.ece
another reason to add to the list of why i'm off!
#60
Re: GB Pound Vs CAD Dollar - HOW LOW CAN IT GO?
Scenario,
Land - 1 Jan 2010 when the exchange rate is say; $1.60
Left behind UK assests, house(rented out) & savings valued at £350K or $560K on the date of landing.
1 Jan 2011 exchange rate say,$2.00, UK house sold & savings transferred to Canada and now worth $700k (assuming no other capital growth)
Capital gain due to improvement in exchange rate = $160K (CGT payable on 50%) therefore tax to pay in Canada would be $20.3k