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Exchange rate - why is this happening?

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Old Jul 14th 2009 | 7:17 am
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Default Exchange rate - why is this happening?

GBP has lost almost 1% of its value against CAD today, but why?
 
Old Jul 14th 2009 | 7:29 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by screene
GBP has lost almost 1% of its value against CAD today, but why?
Probably got something to do with oil and the fact that US consumer spending is up. Who knows really
 
Old Jul 14th 2009 | 7:35 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Alan2005
Probably got something to do with oil and the fact that US consumer spending is up. Who knows really
And that we are in a huge state of market flux.........record gains then record loses.
 
Old Jul 14th 2009 | 11:10 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Gordon Brown hasn't done something stupid again, has he?
 
Old Jul 14th 2009 | 11:18 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by MarkG
Gordon Brown hasn't done something stupid again, has he?
Surely that's just the normal market expectation and is already priced in.
 
Old Jul 14th 2009 | 12:10 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Investors are probably not too enthused about the pound at the moment.
 
Old Jul 14th 2009 | 6:53 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Alan2005
Probably got something to do with oil and the fact that US consumer spending is up. Who knows really
A correlation no doubt. Oil down CAD weakens..
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 9:30 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Down around 7c in the last week (and a chunk of that is today) - that's quite a steep fall in a short(ish) time. I can't think of any *good* reasons why, but then I was a bit surprised to see it get to above 1.90 in the first place. I don't think anything has fundamentally changed for the better or worse in either economy has it?
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 9:43 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Think it's more to do with CAD strengthening - basically on the back of some good results pushing equities higher, and then a poll of economists released with positive outlook for 2010.... so pretty much a lot of thin air & crossed fingers.....

It'll remain volatile for some time yet.
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 9:53 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Rob_999
Think it's more to do with CAD strengthening - basically on the back of some good results pushing equities higher, and then a poll of economists released with positive outlook for 2010.... so pretty much a lot of thin air & crossed fingers.....

It'll remain volatile for some time yet.
There has been lots of 'green shoots' type talk in both places, but the talk isn't backed by anything in particular (my gut feeling is that CAD is undervalued, but that isn't backed by anything either). Anyway - as you say, volatile.
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 10:05 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Alan2005
Down around 7c in the last week (and a chunk of that is today) - that's quite a steep fall in a short(ish) time. I can't think of any *good* reasons why, but then I was a bit surprised to see it get to above 1.90 in the first place. I don't think anything has fundamentally changed for the better or worse in either economy has it?
Hi Alan, I'm no expert on this but would appreciate some direction..CA is commodity rich and generally the money markets are driven my change in the commodity prices as well as cc. Oil is taking a pill so why is the Looney not taking a chuffing. 85% of exports go south of the line, i.e lumber and such like, so why can the CAD keeping keeping it's knickers up..Does not make sense to me..
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 10:10 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Tony the pilot
Hi Alan, I'm no expert on this but would appreciate some direction..CA is commodity rich and generally the money markets are driven my change in the commodity prices as well as cc. Oil is taking a pill so why is the Looney not taking a chuffing. 85% of exports go south of the line, i.e lumber and such like, so why can the CAD keeping keeping it's knickers up..Does not make sense to me..
And another thread starts heading southward at a rate of knots.
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 10:23 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Tony the pilot
Hi Alan, I'm no expert on this but would appreciate some direction..CA is commodity rich and generally the money markets are driven my change in the commodity prices as well as cc. Oil is taking a pill so why is the Looney not taking a chuffing. 85% of exports go south of the line, i.e lumber and such like, so why can the CAD keeping keeping it's knickers up..Does not make sense to me..
Me neither - the FX market can behave inexplicably for long periods of time and if I knew what was going to happen I wouldn't be telling you I'd be rich. Saying that I don't think CAD has kept it's knickers up particularly - it wasn't long ago that it was parity with USD and oil has recovered a bit from the very lows.

As for GBP, just from talking to friends in the UK, the recession seems a lot worse in the there than here and this is why I am more bearish on GBP than CAD - however the market don't give a shit about my opinion and so we'll just have to wait and see.
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 10:53 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Butch Cassidy
And another thread starts heading southward at a rate of knots.
Oh I don't know. It beats reading pages of Brownstar and FlirtyKnickers tossing each others salads (and I think I'm starting to like this Tony guy as odd that may seem)...
 
Old Jul 15th 2009 | 10:58 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate - why is this happening?

Originally Posted by Alan2005
Surely that's just the normal market expectation and is already priced in.
Good point .

I'm just glad I transferred another few thousand pounds over last week when it was $1.90-ish!
 


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