Re: Exchange rate
 

We came Nov 2005 and were lucky to get 2.01 at the time when we had budgeted around 2.25. Well my advice is change what you need and don't look back at what might have been.

The whole thing is a gamble anyway. Budget for 2.10 or something similar then when you change and its 2.15 or 2.20 you will be happy :D

Re: Exchange rate
 

OMG.... it lost nearly 4 cents today alone!! 1.95.

What on earth can cause such a huge drop in a day?:ohmy:

Re: Exchange rate
 

1.98 at close?

Re: Exchange rate
 

Ouch! I was under the illusion it was much rosier than when we came over:blink:

Re: Exchange rate
 

With a bit of luck it'll rise well back above 2$ this summer. :confused_smile:

Re: Exchange rate
 

US unemployment numbers first Friday of every month, and boy were they a shocker today. Lately they have been creating a small number of new positions month on month, they need to create 100,000 to 150,000 a month for the economy to grow, and they have been hitting well under that for sometime which prompted the recession fears. Well today for the first time in ages they actually lost jobs, so US now bracing themselves to dive nose first into a recession. CAD$ received strength in a kind of flight to quality flow, meaning the Canada economy is seen as a safer investment than US and UK.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

Hi Chris

How much pressure is BOC under to cut rates, it seems that as long as the BOC resists the Loonie is going to stay high. The feeling seems to be that the Canadian economy is not in the same state as US or UK so they are not expecting to have to cut rates as deeply.

Or I could be totally misunderstanding the situation :ohmy:

Cheers
Tom

Re: Exchange rate
 

They are under immense pressure to cut, due the strength of the Loonie and nothing else at the moment, some financial data has started to seep through which casts doubt on the long term outlook for the economy, however it could be a blip. I personally expect that data to continue and to get worse, your economy cannot remain buoyant whilst your biggest single trading partner goes through hell, it defies logic. If that scenerio does materialise then you can expect the CAD$ to return closer to previous long term value areas as BoC cut rates to shore up the economy.

If that doesn't happen and Canada continues to buck the trend then any cuts in rates to 'intervene' in the currency market will have a short term effect and do nothing to change the longer term outlook, just ask John Major or George Soros, that episode happened in the UK and the government and Bank of England failed miserably.

Hope that answers your question.

Chris

PS where are you in Edinburgh?? My grandparents live in South Queensferry having previously lived in the Meadowbank area.

Re: Exchange rate
 

thanks Chris

that does indeed answer my question. Would you expect some fairly brutal rate cuts from BOC? 25 points a month doesn't look like it would have any effect right now. I guess the new guy doesn't want to appear to be panicking.

Cheers
Tom

Re: Exchange rate
 

You just hit the biggest unknown on the head, with David Dodge he had nothing to prove he had steered the Bank of Canada successfully and was highly regarded for that. Mark Carney his replacement is an unknown, whilst he has a very good pedigee, Oxford University and Goldman Sachs on the CV are impressive.

That is the biggest problem with Europe at the moment Jean Claude Trichet is relatively new to the job and is kind of sticking two fingetrs up at the financial markets, we are pricing in rate cuts and he is basically saying stick it our next move is a hike. Trichet refuses point blank to let inflation spiral and damn the consquences to the economy.

And then Ben Bernanke is very new to the job and has no bloody choice a crisis in the making of Alan Greenspan chucked into his lap like a hot potato. He stuck with the inflation fighting model for a while until it became obvious that they had bigger fish to fry.

Nobody knows whether Carney will approach as proving he is the 'man' to fight inflation or whether he will preserve the economy above all. March 4th is the next scheduled rate decision from Bank of Canada. Dodge is now gone, could Carney call for an emergency meeting like the FOMC did 2 weeks ago. These are all million dollar questions the guy has yet to show his hand.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

Most of the lenders have started re-pricing their lending rates, increasing the tracker margin so that if it the rate is cut people will be offered around the same rate but the profit will be better.

I think they are certain to cut BOE base rate some seem to think possibly twice in the next three months. Some also seem to think that there will be a further 0.5 cut in the US I guess it's all speculation at this point.

Re: Exchange rate
 

Bank of England definately cut next week... FOMC cut to 3% this week, cut 1.25% in the space of 2 weeks, most US houses going for 2 to 2.25% by next 2008, however John Berry who is basically Bernanke's leak to the press is hinting that FOMC may reverse cuts in the summer. Inflation is still a problem for them, but it is one they can't get rid of. This is what they get for exporting all those manufacturing jobs. They want Walmart to sell cheap goods made in China then this is the consquence.

Back to BoE a lot of banks pricing in drastic cuts this year, some even talking 1.25% over 12 months.

Sooner or later the Bank of Canada got to follow suit.


mclauchlan35, more importantly when you expect to move over, you still considering Barrie and are you still dealing with David.

All the best


Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

Hi Chris

Will PM you

Danny:thumbsup:

Re: Exchange rate
 

Afraid not:

1.95630

Re: Exchange rate
 

We just went to the BMO tonight to change over our GB pounds from last week and we were offered $1.85 to the pound!! We said "no thank you - we'll wait a little longer"!! When we first came out in 2003, the exchange rate was $2.25 and then in 2005 it was $1.98