Here here!! I read this thread to see what others are thinking about the exchange rate so what if its a load of crap their entitled to an opinion Its annoying when I see there's a new post but all it is is insults thrown at each other... boring

auld yin is just cantankerous - and he can take it as well as dish it out which makes him ok in my book. If he has any poodles, he can't be held responsible for them.

Yes, you are right ... no more off topic stuff from me.

A good debate / argument with different views is very good. But personal insults leave that for the politicians.

I still think the pound over the next four years will lose another 30/50 % of real value, and I still have assets and pensions tied up in the UK will forget about them for quite a few years maybe ten. Read the article below see how big the UK red hole is there is no getting out this without very severe austerity measures.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-the-room.html


http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/...e-problem.html

The true enormity of this will not come out to well after the election. At which time I expect UK house prices to lose more than 50% of their real value (inflationary and currency adjusted) value in the next five years.

You can’t build an economy on the principle of selling houses to one another and the financial institutions selling doggie investments to us and other countries.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ayuy9uccSS4o
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-ch...ver-01512.aspx
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programme...ek/8617219.stm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...n-fallout.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ding-cuts.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...ssion-recovery

Canadian economic growth is predicated on an increase in debt just like everywhere else. The problem comes when that growth does not come from productivity or wealth creation, but rather is just borrowed from the future as is the case when using leverage to buy real estate.

I don't know much about what is going on out east, but here in BC, pretty much all recent 'growth' has come from people borrowing to buy real estate. The problem with real-estate driving the economy (as I'm sure you know) is that it creates nothing other than a debt that needs servicing.

Eventually though, the party has to end and people have to start doing the work to pay back the debt. This should have happened in 2007/8, but that was unpalatable to the governments of the G7 - instead they encouraged us to borrow more (which people in Vancouver done with gusto). Of course this will delay the inevitable deflation, or worse cause hyper-inflation if they keep it up. The outlook everywhere is bleak imo.

Edit to add: UK real estate has dropped 25% in cad terms already. I don't think 50% is unrealistic if the rest comes from inflation and possibly nominal falls.

And, maybe much of the bad news in the UK still has to come, after the election. We will see major layoffs in the public sector, which will lead to wage deflation, and interest rate increases. Income to debt ratios on both sides of the Atlantic could mean trouble ahead.

I agree. What's changed in the world economy between 2007 and now? Nothing other than a lot of borrowing.

Look at this article when Gordon Brown said in 1997 that he would not allow house prices to spiral out of control. Hardly gives confidence in our "leadership"

http://blogs.thisismoney.co.uk/2010/...f-control.html

Otherwise, as you say, when growth is based on borrowing and is not "organic", you can only think we have a disaster waiting to happen.

Hi there

does any one know whether the exchange rates in from saudia arabia to Uk have seen much of a diffrence since the economic downturn and whats the best rates to expect from there?

Try this site for the exchange rates:

http://www.x-rates.com/

And this site for the forecasts (for what it's worth):

http://www.forecast-chart.com/usd-british-pound.html

Canada heads towards it's day of reckoning:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1537623/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1537478/

Isnt corporate Canada in as much trouble as the ordinary consumer because they have been borrowing heavily too?

Looks like it everywhere. This article from the UK explains why property prices and the mortgage market are out of sync. Hang onto your cash.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgag...page_id=8&ct=5

lots about consumer related debt, and housing. The real issue is Corporate Canada's high debt. They have relied on cash flow created by selling off assets, and there's very little 'silver' left to sell. The silence on this is deafening.

I haven't read anything about corporate debt for a long while. I guess it's logical that while money is cheap companies will borrow, but I have no evidence as to whether this is happening, let alone the scale of it. Also, the big corporates will raise money be issuing bonds - and I haven't heard of any large bond issues recently either (again this doesn't mean it hasn't happened).

Do you have some sources for this; I'd be interested in reading them.