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Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Pearl&Wal
(Post 7807027)
There is no way Ponting will declare, way too much risk. Forecast is for dry but overcast so it should swing from the off as the ball is around 30 overs old.
There are 98 overs to be bowled in the day so the Aussies will look to bat time 70 overs at least - England may have a run chase of 170 in the final session which will be approx 35 overs. Which at around 5 an over would make it very interesting. Lose a couple of early wickets and they simply shut up shop and take the light when it's offered. England hold all the cards right now. The first session will be MASSIVE. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Yes but your assuming they'll go at 3.5 an over - I reckon it'll be a no risks approach and will leave as much as they can, especially early on.
At around 3 an over they'll be a lead of around the 170-180 mark for England to chase after 70 overs. If they bat for less than 70 overs they'll be up against it. They could also just bat out the day with relative ease with tons from Hussey, Clarke and North to really p*** on our bonfire. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Pearl&Wal
(Post 7807231)
Yes but your assuming they'll go at 3.5 an over - I reckon it'll be a no risks approach and will leave as much as they can, especially early on.
At around 3 an over they'll be a lead of around the 170-180 mark for England to chase after 70 overs. If they bat for less than 70 overs they'll be up against it. They could also just bat out the day with relative ease with tons from Hussey, Clarke and North to really p*** on our bonfire. They'll easily score at 3.5. Their problem isn't runs, it's wickets. Strauss will attack from the go and won't have to defend runs at all. To set any kind of defensive field would suggest that he think England will collapse in a session. To plan for that would show no confidence in the batsmen. The swing bowlers will pitch it up, Flintoff and Broad will put in loads of bouncers and Swann will be attacking the stumps. The ball will fly. On a fifth day pitch and with a swinging ball, the Aussies will not find anything easy. In fact they'll find it far harder to bat time than they would to play normally, so they'll be looking to score. Australia will still think they're in with a shout. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Burbage
(Post 7807285)
Don't think you'll see Hussey leaving too many lol.
They'll easily score at 3.5. Their problem isn't runs, it's wickets. Strauss will attack from the go and won't have to defend runs at all. To set any kind of defensive field would suggest that he think England will collapse in a session. To plan for that would show no confidence in the batsmen. The swing bowlers will pitch it up, Flintoff and Broad will put in loads of bouncers and Swann will be attacking the stumps. The ball will fly. On a fifth day pitch and with a swinging ball, the Aussies will not find anything easy. In fact they'll find it far harder to bat time than they would to play normally, so they'll be looking to score. Australia will still think they're in with a shout. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Broad Shoulders
(Post 7807315)
it's not a day 5 pitch though, more like a day 2/3 pitch
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Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Burbage
(Post 7807321)
It's not just about use. For four days it's been under covers and hasn't been watered.
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Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
It'll be interesting to see what kind of a field Strauss sets.
We need to attack to take wickets and I can see the slips and gully region being well manned but he won't want to give away easy runs as we'll need to chase them down - a couple of sweepers in the deep might not be a bad idea. Despite Hussey's leave in the 1st Innings I really don't think they'll be playing at anything they feel they don't have to - not with it swinging away from the bat. Australia would take a draw now if offered it no question. Also reducing the run rate also builds pressure which results in wickets. Remember Adelaide in 06 - it was Englands scoring rate which lost them the game ultimately so we must have one eye on the run rate. England should be in a no lose situation for if they do get to bat last, lose some wickets and things get a bit hairy they can always take the light and end it if it's overcast - otherwise they can stay on until the 98 overs are through. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Pearl&Wal
(Post 7807412)
It'll be interesting to see what kind of a field Strauss sets.
To me it's either win or not and England need 8 wickets to even give themselves a chance of winning. I wouldn't be worrying about the runs until I've got the wickets. And the best way to slow the scoring rate is to take wickets anyway. Two men on the drive is about as defensive as I'd get, and that's just to give Anderson and Onions the confidence to pitch it up. Freddie and Broad can have two men on the hook so hat they can purvey as many rib-ticklers as they want. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Burbage
(Post 7807451)
It will. It'll tell us a lot about his captaincy skills.
To me it's either win or not and England need 8 wickets to even give themselves a chance of winning. I wouldn't be worrying about the runs until I've got the wickets. And the best way to slow the scoring rate is to take wickets anyway. Two men on the drive is about as defensive as I'd get, and that's just to give Anderson and Onions the confidence to pitch it up. Freddie and Broad can have two men on the hook so hat they can purvey as many rib-ticklers as they want. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Gonna be a draw. Too late now :unsure:
They reckon Brett Lee will be back for next test which might makes things less easy for us. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
4 for 291. Definitely looks like a draw unless the Poms are saved by divine intervention.
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Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Well, that's payback for Cardiff.
:rofl: |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Fleaflyfloflum
(Post 7808567)
Gonna be a draw. Too late now :unsure:
They reckon Brett Lee will be back for next test which might makes things less easy for us. Brett Lee averages 40 with the ball in England so hasn't been that much of a threat in the past. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by Generali
(Post 7809698)
Maybe.
Brett Lee averages 40 with the ball in England so hasn't been that much of a threat in the past. |
Re: Who's going to win The Ashes?
Originally Posted by dodge26
(Post 7812389)
Brett Lee overrated to be honest....
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