UK double dip recession... implications?
Nov 29th 2011, 4:41 am
#16
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Nov 29th 2011, 4:48 am
#18
Possum. Amiculum. Latrina
Joined: Jan 2011
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Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
Nov 29th 2011, 5:00 am
#19
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 6,600
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
How the fluck did we manage to get ourselves into this mess?
Am I in anyway to blame?
Am I in anyway to blame?
Nov 29th 2011, 5:38 am
#20
Not allowed opinions.
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Sydney
Posts: 4,565
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
I think it's going to get very ugly in Europe and the UK but in the meantime the flight to quality will put pressure on the AUD - short term only. The danger in Europe is now looking apoplectic! The UK can't avoid the fall out even if it's banking system remains intact.
The result will be catastrophic.
Nov 29th 2011, 6:06 am
#21
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 335
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
Not convinced it's the end of the world just yet.
Nov 29th 2011, 6:11 am
#22
(It's not my real name)
Joined: Sep 2002
Location: Ilukapool. WA
Posts: 12,467
Nov 29th 2011, 6:28 am
#23
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
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Nov 29th 2011, 6:34 am
#24
(It's not my real name)
Joined: Sep 2002
Location: Ilukapool. WA
Posts: 12,467
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
I think there's a pretty good chance we are about to have WW3.
That's World War 3 BTW.
That's one of the reasons I moved to Perth because it's so insignificant and remote the baddies will forget to nuke us.
That's World War 3 BTW.
That's one of the reasons I moved to Perth because it's so insignificant and remote the baddies will forget to nuke us.
Nov 29th 2011, 6:40 am
#26
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
HMAS Stirling is about to become a major base for USN operations in the Indian Ocean...........
Nov 29th 2011, 6:51 am
#27
(It's not my real name)
Joined: Sep 2002
Location: Ilukapool. WA
Posts: 12,467
Nov 29th 2011, 6:53 am
#28
Not allowed opinions.
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Sydney
Posts: 4,565
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
I think it's going to be incredibly bad.
Merkel blabbing on about war in Europe is just a furphy - it's not going to happen but it sounds good when you need to justify a centralized government.
What will happen is huge cutbacks in government spending - health, education, Defence, infrastructure, aid etc. There will be massive unemployment, and there will be no money to pay benefits. There will be high taxation, and a dramatic drop in standard of living.
I can't see any other alternative. We stopped producing things and became addicted consumers to cheap Asian products. Wealth flowed from west to east, and it didn't flow back. We made up for that missing wealth by borrowing.
The GFC was a minor correction caused by private borrowing. Unemployed Americans were buying houses and cars that they could never pay for. They were buying on credit. Remember the buy now and don't pay nothing until 20xx adverts on TV here? When people couldn't pay they defaulted and banks went down.
Now scale that stupidity up to soveriegn level borrowing. Nations like Spain hav built new highways, nations like Greece have built new underground railways. They didn't have the money to pay for it - they didn't have the tax revenue. So they borrowed by issuing bonds.
Now just like the Lehman Brothers, everyone is realizing that no one can repay the loans. The rest is history, except it hasn't happened yet.
We are in deep shit.
Merkel blabbing on about war in Europe is just a furphy - it's not going to happen but it sounds good when you need to justify a centralized government.
What will happen is huge cutbacks in government spending - health, education, Defence, infrastructure, aid etc. There will be massive unemployment, and there will be no money to pay benefits. There will be high taxation, and a dramatic drop in standard of living.
I can't see any other alternative. We stopped producing things and became addicted consumers to cheap Asian products. Wealth flowed from west to east, and it didn't flow back. We made up for that missing wealth by borrowing.
The GFC was a minor correction caused by private borrowing. Unemployed Americans were buying houses and cars that they could never pay for. They were buying on credit. Remember the buy now and don't pay nothing until 20xx adverts on TV here? When people couldn't pay they defaulted and banks went down.
Now scale that stupidity up to soveriegn level borrowing. Nations like Spain hav built new highways, nations like Greece have built new underground railways. They didn't have the money to pay for it - they didn't have the tax revenue. So they borrowed by issuing bonds.
Now just like the Lehman Brothers, everyone is realizing that no one can repay the loans. The rest is history, except it hasn't happened yet.
We are in deep shit.
Nov 29th 2011, 7:35 am
#29
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
I think it's going to be incredibly bad.
...What will happen is huge cutbacks in government spending - health, education, Defence, infrastructure, aid etc. ...I can't see any other alternative. ...
The GFC was a minor correction caused by private borrowing. ... When people couldn't pay they defaulted and banks went down....Now scale that stupidity up to soveriegn level borrowing. ...Now just like the Lehman Brothers, everyone is realizing that no one can repay the loans. The rest is history, except it hasn't happened yet.
...What will happen is huge cutbacks in government spending - health, education, Defence, infrastructure, aid etc. ...I can't see any other alternative. ...
The GFC was a minor correction caused by private borrowing. ... When people couldn't pay they defaulted and banks went down....Now scale that stupidity up to soveriegn level borrowing. ...Now just like the Lehman Brothers, everyone is realizing that no one can repay the loans. The rest is history, except it hasn't happened yet.
Sovereign debt can be defaulted on, or if you have control of your currency, inflated away in currency devaluations. That's much more likely for the PIIGS. Lots of options to play with if you are Country PLC that Company PLC doesn't have.
It's more that global trade will take a hit, since simplistic austerity measures can't cut very deep without revolution. That and personal savings are likely to be the main sufferers.
Nov 29th 2011, 7:40 am
#30
Possum. Amiculum. Latrina
Joined: Jan 2011
Location: Footloose
Posts: 3,427
Re: UK double dip recession... implications?
Not quite.
Sovereign debt can be defaulted on, or if you have control of your currency, inflated away in currency devaluations. That's much more likely for the PIIGS. Lots of options to play with if you are Country PLC that Company PLC doesn't have.
It's more that global trade will take a hit, since simplistic austerity measures can't cut very deep without revolution. That and personal savings are likely to be the main sufferers.
Sovereign debt can be defaulted on, or if you have control of your currency, inflated away in currency devaluations. That's much more likely for the PIIGS. Lots of options to play with if you are Country PLC that Company PLC doesn't have.
It's more that global trade will take a hit, since simplistic austerity measures can't cut very deep without revolution. That and personal savings are likely to be the main sufferers.