fish.01

My explanation will probably cover the ground that you already know so apologies in advance for my waffling but it is the only way I can explain my thoughts.

Imo democracy works by the simple fact that each side gets a go, succeeds to a varying degree with their views and then annoys enough people by swinging the pendulum too far into ideological territory, getting corrupt, lazy etc. They then get kicked out and the other side swings the pendulum back the other way to the middle line and all is well with the world before it all starts again but in the opposite direction.

It is this constant correction of the pendulum back to the middle that makes democracy work. Both sides need each other. Without the other side their sensible decisions start to slip into poor ideological ones and the lunatics, ruthless and corrupt claw to the top and start to take over the asylum.

Because of the London centric history of the UK the balance of left and right has been more geographically based than it might otherwise have been. The Scots have voted excessively left as a counter balance to the conservatives of the south east protecting their favoured status quo.

Without this Scottish counter balance some other seats in the remains of the UK will need to switch to the left to play this counter balance role as people always demand change back to the pendulum centre line after a while and that cannot come from the same side of politics with a different name (eg. lurching further right with the UKIP).

Therefore the change must come from the left to bring the pendulum back to the middle and so more seats than normal in the remains of the UK (including in England) will swing left eventually.

You can apply the same logic to Scotland. Once they have far more representation of purely Scottish interests then the need for excessive geographical counter balance is removed, and instead more centre right parties will need to emerge to play the counter balance role required by a healthy country.

It is only the dictatorships and failed states of this world that resist this natural order and neither England nor Scotland are that. That is why wishing for only left or only right is a wish for anarchy....wishing for moderate govt of both left and right is far more desirable imo. Of course over time the middle line itself can drift one way or the other (witness the USA's inexorable march to the right over the last 30 years) but this is a slower more subtle process and the pendulum continues to swing back and forth regardless during this change.

Btw I don't think Scotland will end up further to the right than England's politics, just further to the right than they are now. To the contrary I think this schism is probably caused by the fact that fundamentally the Scottish want the agreed middle of the pendulum to be further to the left than where the rest of the UK have moved it. The gap between preferred centre lines has become too large.

amomentofstillness

I neither wish for a left or right for Scotland. I just believe that Scotland, as a country should make its own decisions, elect it's own government and control it's own affairs.

There's no left of centre option for Scotland and the rest of the UK in general elections. This is why Scotland is having this vote. Scotland has tried a conservative government, it tried a Labour government but nothing changes, the gap between rich and poor increases and voters are left unhappy whatever the government elected.

I've no idea what way Scotland and England will go politically after a yes vote. I despise Westminster and everything it stands for so can only see a positive for Scotland and the rest of the UK in a yes vote.

calman014

A yes vote will cause a big earthquake in westminster previously planned to occur on 5th November quite a few years ago...

paulry

I doubt that is possible, else we would have already achieved it. Unfortunately, no matter what the outcome is, Scotland will be blighted with the same pendulum-style left then right confrontation politics that it always has.

isgraham

Anybody describing Blair as a socialist is either being provocative or they are an idiot.

Gordon Barlow

Some years ago I read of a claim by Shetland Islanders that "It's Shetland's oil". Is this claim valid, or has it disappeared completely? Wikipedia says that the Islands were annexed by "the Crown" in the person of King James I of England & Ireland and VI of Scotland. Can anybody tell me in what capacity King James (or "Jummay") acted when he annexed them? Thanks.

paulry

Blair is a truly odd one and another leader who has a lot to answer for.

Disbelief as Tony Blair is handed philanthropist of the year at GQ awards 2014 | Mail Online

@ some of the tweets

Grayling

Or both in some cases

scottishcelts

paulry

Meanwhile, in Scotland...

Jon77

Blair is the best Tory PM the UK has ever had Tony is more tory than many in the tory party.

GarryP

OOoo, can I jump up and down on this one?

Clair has completed phase I, where they had one rig, producing a peak of 60k bpd (it's now declined to less than half that) a sum total of 6% of total (declining at 10% pa) North Sea production. Woo hoo, great success, and with this purportedly huge field I'm sure BP will be going great guns for phase II, really ramping things up to exploit a field that's inside their control and where they don't need to deal with either the corrupt Putin, or the litigious yanks?

What's that, phase II is ...... two rigs ...... due to produce 120k bpd at maximum?

Maybe this talk of vast tax revenue and an oil renascence for scotland is mostly prime bovine product?

amomentofstillness

Oil for any country is a huge bonus for its economy, except in Scotland, it's a burden for an independent Scotland.

The media, big business and Westminster have went into overdrive now. Be interesting to see how voters react to it.

Amazulu

Anyone who can't see this has either got their blinkers on or is a twat

Amazulu

Again, the BP Statistical Review is the industry standard for proven oil reserves, everything else is opinion

I'm studying energy economics at the moment and this document is the one I use the most to look at reserves/production

So many resource discoveries look great on paper, but can they be economically extracted? If they can, then companies like BP will be all over them - especially in a place like Scotland