wilf70

My instincts[never a good guide,but...]is that the pundits and the poll takers are in for a shock.For what its worth I will say the Cons',but by a narrow margin.People are very deeply disillusioned with all of them---the attitude seems to be a curse on all your houses--but who is the least worse.Perhaps the most interesting thing may be how well the non-mainstream parties do[eg UKIP,BNP].They represent a powerful undercurrent of disencharntment with the status quo of political correctness etc

NedKelly

Whoever gets in should change the system so the bias that gives Labour more seats with a lower percentage of votes polled, is removed.

wilf70

Many would agree with Nedkelly[me among them].Also reduce the number of MP's by a quarter--but much larger constituencies of course.

ABCDiamond

According to the poll results...
12.50% think that the British National Party will Win the election
6.25% think that the Plaid Cymru Party will Win the election
6.25% think that some other party (other than those listed in the poll question) will Win the election.

The %'s have changed since earlier, now only 25%

wilf70

I can see UKIP and the BNP getting quite a few votes--but very widely spread.Either way it will be a real shock to mainstream parties to realize how disillusioned and fractured the electorate has become.The old allegiences are dying and passing--I think we may be in for a period of turmoil and change and the established order are in for a shock

ABCDiamond

The same thing happens here, there have been two elections that I am aware of, that looked like this:and the Liberals Won, with 53% of the seats.

The other one had the Liberals with more votes, but the ALP won.and the ALP Won with 52.7% of the seats

freebo

I hope they're gamblers, the odds (and likelyhood) of any of the above are about the same as Elvis arrving at the local chipshop riding Shergar.

wilf70

Funny that--I've just seen a chap in a luminous suit and slick back hair leading a horse down the street!!!!

freebo

I've been watching the odds on betfair (I'm not much of a gambler but its a good guage of opinion). Until today a HP was fav but the Tories have just taken the lead, I'd trust the odds more than an opinion poll, but there's a few days left.

BTW if anyone thinks Labour can win they're 55-1!

Alfresco

I'm surprised that only 2 people think that Labour may pull it off so far.


Ok...maybe it's not that surprising.

ABCDiamond

We are looking at the results from people who have left the UK, or are trying to.....

Bermudashorts

I think UK system is a lot more biased than that unfortunately.

According to the BBC seat calculator thing, if say Conservatives get 36% and Labour 30% then they end up with much the same number of seats.

But if Labour got 36% and Conservatives 30%, then Labour has a landslide and would be predicted to get more than twice the number of seats as conservatives.

Alfresco

Is that only because Labour is the ruling party at present i.e. the balance shifts in favour of the ruling party?

Bermudashorts

I must confess I am not sure if there is an advantage to the ruling party or not.

I thought it was mainly because the constituency sizes are smaller in inner cities and Labour heartlands so they get more seats for their share of the vote.

ABCDiamond

Queensland Election 2001

Labor got 1,007,737 votes and 66 seats (48.93% of the vote, but 74.2% of the seats)
Liberal 294,968 votes and 3 seats (14.32% of the vote, but 3.4% of the seats)
National 291,605 votes and 12 seats (14.16% of the vote, but 13.5% of the seats)
One Nation 179,076 votes and 3 seats (8.69% of the vote, but 3.4% of the seats)
Independent 177,334 and 5 seats (8.61% of the vote, but 5.6% of the seats)

Two points to this result:

• Labour had 3 times the votes as Liberal, but got 22 times the number of seats.
  
• Liberal and National had about the same number of votes, but one party had 4 times the number of seats as the other.

True Proportional representation would have given us, out of the 89 seats:Politics isn't fair wherever we are.