ralphwiggam

Is it really a good time to be thinking of packing everything up and setting up shop in oz???? I think the housing crises along with the high AUS dollar is a bad combination at the moment and could easily lead to a recesion, and a big one.

I was thinking of applying in 12 months time but now I don't know. Maybe it will be all ok, only time will tell.

Any comments....??

Dan the Plumber

Personally I think like here the housing market has to come down to some sort of affordability. We are one of the many trying to sell at the moment so whether there is a recession here or there doesn't make any odds!
Of course if we do sell then I hope that house prices will keep dropping in Oz although a recession won't be good as it will undoubtedly affect my trade.
I guess most people wouldn't be buying there anyway due to the crap exchange rates.
Maybe I am missing something but why would this affect you applying?
Dtp

Sally Simpson

Sounds like you are not sure you want to move at all, economics aside!

sonlymewalter

Personally I would still apply. What have you got to lose as anything could change between now and then when you get the visa.

Having said that, right now is not a good time to move in my opinion. Aus interest rates are not good, petrol and food prices are high and house prices are not cheap despite people thinking prices are coming down, I've not seen evidence of it. Standing still maybe, but not coming down. Also the job market at the moment is jittery due to economic pressures and uncertainty.

This could all change in 12 months time. Who knows.

ralphwiggam

Don't get me wrong. I have travelled around oz for 8 months and have worked in Australia 4 months, I know what the country is like. I am just worried about the current trends.

But I looks like that it is happening all over the world at the moment.

Sounds like you are not sure you want to move at all, economics aside!
What make you think that?

sonlymewalter

Who are you talking to

Sally Simpson

The economic situation is global, so what difference will it make where you are? Maybe I am being simplistic though. I realise that it is not great timing, especially as the exchange rate is lousy but if you really want to change your life, would that stop you?
Maybe you have time on your side? We have discussed that all seems set against the move too so don't get me wrong! But I do have to ask if there will ever be an ideal time to emigrate as life has a habit of throwing the unexpected before you.

Centurion

Since you are really looking at 2 years before you would even get a visa grant and then time to move etc, really I should imagine that you would have a better picture closer to the time.

How does the value of the Australian Dollar comparative to the UK pound and USA dollar effect our house prices and then turn into a big economic crash ????

ralphwiggam

Obviously, the Australian economy will go into a slump. Its for sure.
The currency's performance and economic trends are similar to those leading up to Australia's most-recent recession, in 1990-91.

Australia has been warned it is probably heading for its biggest housing slump over the past 100 years. This is not just my opinion but words of financial advisers & credit crunchers who do this for a living. Don't believe everything you read in the papers or see on the news, these are edited versions of what is really happening.

Australians have built up over AU$2.2 Trillion in debt & need AU$1 Trillion to mend the housing crunch, its in a bad way and will need to tred very carefully and take evasive action quickly.

I never mentioned anything about the UK pound or the US dollar!

Maybe I have mentioned this in the wrong site.......everyone wishing or in the process of moving to oz.

Amazulu

As soon as I read 'It's for sure' in your post I switched off. Nothing is certain when it comes to economics. The majority of financial 'experts' get it wrong all the time, but few admit to do doing so.

Wheeler-Jones

[QUOTE=ralphwiggam;6600647]
Australians have built up over AU$2.2 Trillion in debt & need AU$1 Trillion to mend the housing crunch, its in a bad way and will need to tred very carefully and take evasive action quickly.
QUOTE]

Yet Australia has no foreign debt and this reason was touted as why Australia is not doing so badly with the global downturn.

We are not getting a interest cut this year (according to the news tonight) so that tells me thay they still need to slow down the inflation rate. I would say this is a good sign that Aussie is still doing well (but then again I am no expert).

The mining industry is doing alot to alleviate alot of the pressure.

IvanM

[QUOTE=Wheeler-Jones;6601319] Australia runs a trade deficit and therefore a foreign debt. Government finances are in excellent shape due to receipts from the commodities boom. The same boom has boosted the dollar and put a strain on export orientated companies.

If China and India carry on buying iron ore then Aus will fare better than UK/US. Housing is now suffering in all states and the finance and service sectors are starting to shed jobs and freeze hiring. Again nothing as bad as US/UK.

Just make sure you are in an industry that benefits from mining.

mr mover

[l be all ok, only time will tell.

Any comments....??[/QUOTE]

Yes Ralph , "leave your self ,alone at night".................mm

Innyjim

Yup, I guess you're right. But ya kinda live where you want to live I guess. I think we're all going to have it tough, although Oz had it tougher than the UK in 90-91.....interest rates of 19% !!

I don't think it's going be any sort of mardi gras in the UK or Oz, but ya gotta live somewhere. I doubt this the last economic storm we witness in our lives....?

IJ

DrWho

Interesting to see the property section of the Manly Daily last Saturday, their featured suburb was Mona Vale where we live... Over the last 12 months there have been 46 auctions with just 9 sales... and the average house price has dropped 6.75% - source RP Data...