Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
#1
BE Enthusiast
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2004
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 309
Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
Hi
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
#2
Australia's Doorman
Joined: Jan 2005
Location: The Shoalhaven, New South Wales, Australia
Posts: 11,056
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
Hi
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
#3
Just Joined
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: Sydney
Posts: 22
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
Hi
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
The UK (global) housing bubble has been so extreme, and given the current economic climate it is quite likely that it will over correct past the required 45% (as is usual in the boom/bust cycles). Many economists and commentators do not expect a bottom to be reached until 2010/2011.
#4
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
Hi
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
#5
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
Every day the numbers seem to be looking worse. Big inflation numbers yesterday mean interest rates less likely to be dropped any time soon so housing finance less affordable, if you can get a loan at all. Plus forecasts of less than 1% GDP growth for the next 2 years = pretty miserable economic conditions, job losses = further deterioration in housing market. Personally I don't see the time to any turnaround being mesaured in months.
S
#6
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2003
Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posts: 524
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
Hi
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
Based on 4 previous UK housing boom/busts we can see that in the bust always goes below the long term trend and bottoms at about the point of the previous boom. We still have a long, long way to go.
#7
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Joined: Oct 2005
Location: Perth
Posts: 3,453
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/gra...d/homepage.png
Based on 4 previous UK housing boom/busts we can see that in the bust always goes below the long term trend and bottoms at about the point of the previous boom. We still have a long, long way to go.
Based on 4 previous UK housing boom/busts we can see that in the bust always goes below the long term trend and bottoms at about the point of the previous boom. We still have a long, long way to go.
#10
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: Perth
Posts: 3,453
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/gra...d/homepage.png
Based on 4 previous UK housing boom/busts we can see that in the bust always goes below the long term trend and bottoms at about the point of the previous boom. We still have a long, long way to go.
Based on 4 previous UK housing boom/busts we can see that in the bust always goes below the long term trend and bottoms at about the point of the previous boom. We still have a long, long way to go.
#11
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 629
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
I'd totally agree with this; it is a prudent option. Try to switch to interest only - it won't matter for a couple of years. On the other hand you need to be pretty confident you can rent your place with minimal vacancy and you need a brilliant agency.
#12
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
Hi
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
We have property in South London and we are trying to sell it. We have reduced the price already because of the failing market.
How long do you think it would be before the market picks up again, would it be months, years?? Any ideas.
If we cant sell it we are thinking of renting it out, but do not want to make further losses if the market takes years to recover
Thanks
The MPC's gross negligence in refusing to raise IRs in order to prop up this crashing housing market is of great interest to me, not least because the RBA is thinking of committing suicide by the same methods. Inflation nearly at 5% in UK at at 17 year-high in Australia requires IR rises to cool it. Will they do it? The MPC knew the latest inflation figures and they still decided to hold rates. Shocking. What they hoping, of course, is that the dropping oil prices will hit the economy and cool it off and they can cut rates and save the crashing housing market. Wrong. Sliding oil prices and a similar reduction in the cost of precious metals all points towards recession and possibly a general deflation in the economy.
Some serious people are talking about over 50% coming off house prices from peak, in the UK and Australia, and when I'm in the right mood I can go along with this - far worse happened in Japan after the 1990 crash.
An interesting side-effect is that everybody selling their houses is deciding to let them out instead. I hope Britain suddenly has an influx of millions of people looking for houses to rent because otherwise the maths doesn't add up.
In answer to your question, my personal view is that dependent on property type and region, a recovery is not likely in years, and I don't think house prices in the UK will reach the same value in real terms in decades.
#13
Re: Housing crash in London - when will it recover?
The trendline is only mathematically accurate up to the present, anything after that is speculation. However, it might be possible to make an educated inference from this data, the conclusion of which might lead one not to purchase a house any time soon..........