Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5780570)

Australia's biggest export destinations are China, the US and Japan. The state of Australia's economy is down to the huge commodities boom that Chindia is generating. Take away the commodities and the housing market will dive as this country has higher levels of consumer debt that the US. Take away housing and commodities and this country will be like anywhere else in the sub prime mess.

The big question is when will China's boom end? China's boom is built on excessive credit and just like the rest of Asia in 1997 and any other credit led boom it will bust. Hopefully by that point the US and Japan will be back online.

The other wonderful thing about commodites exports is that they bring the government billions in tax royalties that mean Australia has been able to slash income tax rates and fund some pork barrelled election campaigns. This is despite the need for critical infrastructure projects so we have fresh water, electricity and schools for the 125,000 a year migration intake.

Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack (Post 5808633)

As I think OzEagle says, short term, the commodities market might provide some sort of insurance for Australia. But if you're mortgaged to the hilt, you're mortgaged to the hilt! I feel sorry for the people who borrowed to the max to get on the ladder out in Sydney's West or Melbourne's SE, for example.

Have to admit I'd much rather pay higher taxes if it meant investment for infrastructure. I don't particularly want an extra 10-50bucks a week. This income tax reduction seems to have been very popular since the late 80s.

Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5808988)

There have been large tax reductions in the last few years. Government spending has also blown out to levels unheard of since the seventies and huge amounts of debt have been paid off. When the commodities boom ends something will have to give as the tax receipts it is providing is nothing like what the rest of the economy can generate.

Those mortgaged to the hilt in the areas you describe are in trouble. The RBA governor gave a speech the other night stating his priority was fighting inflation and not the credit crisis. That and the inflation figures the other day indicate a rate rise very soon.

Originally Posted by why (Post 5809007)

i think australia will become the new world leaders in exporting green technology

it will be the first place to start a green revolution as it is acutely affected by climate change
it will be harder and harder to enter australia

the indigenous peoples

will be the ones to lead the way

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809053)

I take a slightly different view... Open up the flood gates, import as many people as possible, Cause the reason to solve the water situation, and use the masses taxes to fix the water issue, and Australias fantastic growth potential for once and for all.... It's the availablity of water and a bigger populatiion holding this country back from becoming a very major player on the World Stage.

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809034)

It's quiet possible that this resource boom may carry on for another 30 years, China is presently rebuilding itself at the same rate if not faster, as the US did in the 1890's... I think you will find there is historical evidence that countries like China and to a lesser extent India start progressing, a 30 year rapid growth cycle is par for the course. China is going to end up bigger than anything we've seen in history to date, and fantasically for us here in Aus... India is right on it's shirt tail... Then there's the rest of Asia... Malaysia..Indonesia.. SE Asia... they are all growing. In the midst of all of this, America surely will recover. The only major obstacle to this growth I can see are Middle east problems.

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809053)

I take a slightly different view... Open up the flood gates, import as many people as possible, Cause the reason to solve the water situation, and use the masses taxes to fix the water issue, and Australias fantastic growth potential for once and for all.... It's the availablity of water and a bigger populatiion holding this country back from becoming a very major player on the World Stage.

Originally Posted by why (Post 5809007)

i think australia will become the new world leaders in exporting green technology

it will be the first place to start a green revolution as it is acutely affected by climate change
it will be harder and harder to enter australia

the indigenous peoples

will be the ones to lead the way

Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5809189)

Are you talking something like a replay of the snowy hydro scheme without the whites only policy? I am yet to be convinced of the financial viability of moving water vast distances.

Originally Posted by why (Post 5812685)

what about lake argyle

that's a big bit of water
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Argyle

http://www.kdc.wa.gov.au/kimberley/tk_ord.asp

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809301)

Yes, except a much bigger scheme. Apparently on paper at least, it's possible to move water from the Highlands of Western Tasmania, via a pipeline under Bass Strait through to the current infrastructure that Victoria has and then on to the other local states. All via Gravity feed... probably goes against all current environmental constraints, considering the size of dam you would have to build in the West Tasmanian highlands.... Needs tend to overcome Environmental issues, especially asthetic issues, in the long term.

Australia does have enough water, its just the question of capturing it and moving it.

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809053)

I take a slightly different view... Open up the flood gates, import as many people as possible, Cause the reason to solve the water situation, and use the masses taxes to fix the water issue, and Australias fantastic growth potential for once and for all.... It's the availablity of water and a bigger populatiion holding this country back from becoming a very major player on the World Stage.

Originally Posted by quercus (Post 5827618)

USA going slowly down the pan, only they haven't realised it yet.