British Expats

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)
-   The Barbie (https://britishexpats.com/forum/barbie-92/)
-   -   The Future of Australia (https://britishexpats.com/forum/barbie-92/future-australia-504252/)

Bix Jan 13th 2008 6:31 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 
I have the solution Ozzi.
We can all up sticks and make a beeline to NZ.
Plenty of water, plenty of room and plenty of sheep :p

IvanM Jan 17th 2008 7:03 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by Vash the Stampede (Post 5782433)
You are kidding, aren't you?

Manufacturing is Australia's largest export earner.

Depends if you count digging stuff out of the ground as manufacturing. Have a look at the last graph in http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAn.../bu_0402_1.pdf

50% of exports are from mining. The manufacturing sector is now suffering from the high dollar caused by the commodities.

IvanM Jan 17th 2008 7:05 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5782510)
Yes the boom here is largely commodity driven, but at times of non boom Australia tends to hold it's place amongst world nations. There has been a very large change in the per capita rakings in the last 12 months as shown in this article. Currently this country is moving up the ranks compared to other nations.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22971594-2,00.html

The savings held in Superannuation are creating new wealth in this country.

The compulsory super is preparing Australia for the ageing population better than most nations. 9% is still not enough.

IvanM Jan 17th 2008 7:09 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by Vash the Stampede (Post 5782923)
All the more reason for me to return home, since UK pension plans don't seem to be worth the paper they're written on.

Take me back to my super, please!

There is little difference between a UK personal pension plan and super. At least the UK plan is transportable overseas. The real winners in both countries are those still on final salary/defined benefits schemes. Those are fast disappearing in both the UK and here. The big losers are those in the UK with no pension plan whatsoever.

IvanM Jan 17th 2008 7:12 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5782510)
Yes the boom here is largely commodity driven, but at times of non boom Australia tends to hold it's place amongst world nations. There has been a very large change in the per capita rakings in the last 12 months as shown in this article. Currently this country is moving up the ranks compared to other nations.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22971594-2,00.html

The savings held in Superannuation are creating new wealth in this country.

My main point is that Australia is now more entrenched in the Asian economy and the next economic crisis there will hit harder. I hope it happens after the current US recession has blown over to minmise the impact.

MartinLuther Jan 17th 2008 8:58 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5804071)
There is little difference between a UK personal pension plan and super. At least the UK plan is transportable overseas. The real winners in both countries are those still on final salary/defined benefits schemes. Those are fast disappearing in both the UK and here. The big losers are those in the UK with no pension plan whatsoever.

Depends on how you look at it.

With super your employer contributes and amount equal to 9% of your salary (with 15% of that going to the tax man). With UK private pension you pay out of your salary (albeit before tax). The 12.8%* employer contribution in the UK goes into a common pot from which you will get a fixed pension unrelated to the size of the contribution.

I think there's a big difference. Super is much better (despite having a transportability restriction).

* over the threshold.

IvanM Jan 17th 2008 9:13 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by MartinLuther (Post 5804344)
Depends on how you look at it.

With super your employer contributes and amount equal to 9% of your salary (with 15% of that going to the tax man). With UK private pension you pay out of your salary (albeit before tax). The 12.8%* employer contribution in the UK goes into a common pot from which you will get a fixed pension unrelated to the size of the contribution.

I think there's a big difference. Super is much better (despite having a transportability restriction).

* over the threshold.

When you negotiate a package here super is included. The main thing is in the UK you must take into account what you need for a pension when negotiating a salary. Here the company takes into account the super when working out your package cost which pushes the wage down by the amount of super.

I am a fan of compulsory super. In the UK you just have a choice but unfortunately too many chose to have no pension fund.

MartinLuther Jan 17th 2008 10:53 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5804395)
When you negotiate a package here super is included. The main thing is in the UK you must take into account what you need for a pension when negotiating a salary. Here the company takes into account the super when working out your package cost which pushes the wage down by the amount of super.

I am a fan of compulsory super. In the UK you just have a choice but unfortunately too many chose to have no pension fund.

That's true for some. I would say that people in run of the mill jobs don't have that option. I can see that Aus employers often include the 9% in deals to make their offers look more attractive but Aus employees are also more interested because the money goes into their pocket (albeit at some future date). Very few UK employees are even aware of the employer's contribution and I think that this is because it goes into the common pot.

What's bizarre about this is that a lot of UK bods that come here see the super contributions as a tax (when it is not) and are unaware that the UK equivalent (which is a tax) exists.

IvanM Jan 18th 2008 10:14 am

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by Amazulu (Post 5783319)
WA has built a desal plant and is building another - part of $4billion in water investment.
$5billion+ is being invested in the power grid in WA. New power stations, substations (50 132kV subs), power lines.
We have new rail, port and road projects being built or planned.

Infrastructure investment could be better but it is happening.

A desal plant is being built in Sydney but it is not enough. Recycling would be enough but the governments are too scared to do it. There is going to be a recalculation of federal distribution of GST to the states and it is more likely to be along population so maybe NSW will get some more cash now that we are the state that decided the last election.

Electricity is going to be privatised (if the unions do not block it) and the hope is that will raise enough to boost the grid.

IvanM Jan 18th 2008 10:18 am

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5782510)
Yes the boom here is largely commodity driven, but at times of non boom Australia tends to hold it's place amongst world nations. There has been a very large change in the per capita rakings in the last 12 months as shown in this article. Currently this country is moving up the ranks compared to other nations.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22971594-2,00.html

The savings held in Superannuation are creating new wealth in this country.

What matters is that value add of the goods you produce. If the commodities have a good value add then great. Compared to pumping out subsidised junky Holdens and Fords it is far more preferable. The obsession with the unsustainable elements of manufacturing holds back economies.

BadgeIsBack Jan 18th 2008 3:38 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5780570)
Australia's biggest export destinations are China, the US and Japan. The state of Australia's economy is down to the huge commodities boom that Chindia is generating. Take away the commodities and the housing market will dive as this country has higher levels of consumer debt that the US. Take away housing and commodities and this country will be like anywhere else in the sub prime mess.

The big question is when will China's boom end? China's boom is built on excessive credit and just like the rest of Asia in 1997 and any other credit led boom it will bust. Hopefully by that point the US and Japan will be back online.

The other wonderful thing about commodites exports is that they bring the government billions in tax royalties that mean Australia has been able to slash income tax rates and fund some pork barrelled election campaigns. This is despite the need for critical infrastructure projects so we have fresh water, electricity and schools for the 125,000 a year migration intake.

As I think OzEagle says, short term, the commodities market might provide some sort of insurance for Australia. But if you're mortgaged to the hilt, you're mortgaged to the hilt! I feel sorry for the people who borrowed to the max to get on the ladder out in Sydney's West or Melbourne's SE, for example.

Have to admit I'd much rather pay higher taxes if it meant investment for infrastructure. I don't particularly want an extra 10-50bucks a week. This income tax reduction seems to have been very popular since the late 80s.

IvanM Jan 18th 2008 7:07 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack (Post 5808633)
As I think OzEagle says, short term, the commodities market might provide some sort of insurance for Australia. But if you're mortgaged to the hilt, you're mortgaged to the hilt! I feel sorry for the people who borrowed to the max to get on the ladder out in Sydney's West or Melbourne's SE, for example.

Have to admit I'd much rather pay higher taxes if it meant investment for infrastructure. I don't particularly want an extra 10-50bucks a week. This income tax reduction seems to have been very popular since the late 80s.

There have been large tax reductions in the last few years. Government spending has also blown out to levels unheard of since the seventies and huge amounts of debt have been paid off. When the commodities boom ends something will have to give as the tax receipts it is providing is nothing like what the rest of the economy can generate.

Those mortgaged to the hilt in the areas you describe are in trouble. The RBA governor gave a speech the other night stating his priority was fighting inflation and not the credit crisis. That and the inflation figures the other day indicate a rate rise very soon.

why Jan 18th 2008 7:15 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 
i think australia will become the new world leaders in exporting green technology

it will be the first place to start a green revolution as it is acutely affected by climate change
it will be harder and harder to enter australia

the indigenous peoples

will be the ones to lead the way

ozzieeagle Jan 18th 2008 7:30 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5808988)
There have been large tax reductions in the last few years. Government spending has also blown out to levels unheard of since the seventies and huge amounts of debt have been paid off. When the commodities boom ends something will have to give as the tax receipts it is providing is nothing like what the rest of the economy can generate.

Those mortgaged to the hilt in the areas you describe are in trouble. The RBA governor gave a speech the other night stating his priority was fighting inflation and not the credit crisis. That and the inflation figures the other day indicate a rate rise very soon.

It's quiet possible that this resource boom may carry on for another 30 years, China is presently rebuilding itself at the same rate if not faster, as the US did in the 1890's... I think you will find there is historical evidence that countries like China and to a lesser extent India start progressing, a 30 year rapid growth cycle is par for the course. China is going to end up bigger than anything we've seen in history to date, and fantasically for us here in Aus... India is right on it's shirt tail... Then there's the rest of Asia... Malaysia..Indonesia.. SE Asia... they are all growing. In the midst of all of this, America surely will recover. The only major obstacle to this growth I can see are Middle east problems.

ozzieeagle Jan 18th 2008 7:39 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by why (Post 5809007)
i think australia will become the new world leaders in exporting green technology

it will be the first place to start a green revolution as it is acutely affected by climate change
it will be harder and harder to enter australia

the indigenous peoples

will be the ones to lead the way

I take a slightly different view... Open up the flood gates, import as many people as possible, Cause the reason to solve the water situation, and use the masses taxes to fix the water issue, and Australias fantastic growth potential for once and for all.... It's the availablity of water and a bigger populatiion holding this country back from becoming a very major player on the World Stage.

why Jan 18th 2008 7:42 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809053)
I take a slightly different view... Open up the flood gates, import as many people as possible, Cause the reason to solve the water situation, and use the masses taxes to fix the water issue, and Australias fantastic growth potential for once and for all.... It's the availablity of water and a bigger populatiion holding this country back from becoming a very major player on the World Stage.

right on that sounds good

IvanM Jan 18th 2008 8:26 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809034)
It's quiet possible that this resource boom may carry on for another 30 years, China is presently rebuilding itself at the same rate if not faster, as the US did in the 1890's... I think you will find there is historical evidence that countries like China and to a lesser extent India start progressing, a 30 year rapid growth cycle is par for the course. China is going to end up bigger than anything we've seen in history to date, and fantasically for us here in Aus... India is right on it's shirt tail... Then there's the rest of Asia... Malaysia..Indonesia.. SE Asia... they are all growing. In the midst of all of this, America surely will recover. The only major obstacle to this growth I can see are Middle east problems.

The overall economic trend is always up but the economic cycle keeps on repeating itself over and over again. Periods of low economic growth and recession are inevitable in all economies. Countries with stable institutions and independent central banks have smoothed the cycle so the peaks are not too high and the recessions to bad.

I agree China and India will be huge but such growth in economies with opaque institutions and corruption always has an element of unsustainable growth funded by credit. just look back at SE Asia in 1997. The booms are massive but beware the inevitable busts on the way.

IvanM Jan 18th 2008 8:38 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809053)
I take a slightly different view... Open up the flood gates, import as many people as possible, Cause the reason to solve the water situation, and use the masses taxes to fix the water issue, and Australias fantastic growth potential for once and for all.... It's the availablity of water and a bigger populatiion holding this country back from becoming a very major player on the World Stage.

Are you talking something like a replay of the snowy hydro scheme without the whites only policy? I am yet to be convinced of the financial viability of moving water vast distances.

Spreading the population out away from the capital cities would help. There appears to be a reluctance of industry and service to move out of the capitals which in turn stops the population moving out. If you look at Europe and the US the population and economy is spread more rather than concentrated in regional capitals. Even small UK villages have software companies and other high value add enterprises.

The other key is ensuring that Australia keeps in with the opening of regional economies in organisation such as ASEAN and APEC. It was also good to see Rudd championing opening Australia as a single market. Sounds strange but there are interstate barriers to business such as recognition of qualifications, payroll taxes, thousands of industrial relations laws and separate education systems.

IvanM Jan 18th 2008 8:41 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by why (Post 5809007)
i think australia will become the new world leaders in exporting green technology

it will be the first place to start a green revolution as it is acutely affected by climate change
it will be harder and harder to enter australia

the indigenous peoples

will be the ones to lead the way

Until Howard (he was a huge climate change sceptic) was booted out alternative energy was on the back shelf of policy. There is a lot of catch up to do if the right incentives are put in place.

ozzieeagle Jan 18th 2008 9:13 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by IvanM (Post 5809189)
Are you talking something like a replay of the snowy hydro scheme without the whites only policy? I am yet to be convinced of the financial viability of moving water vast distances.

Yes, except a much bigger scheme. Apparently on paper at least, it's possible to move water from the Highlands of Western Tasmania, via a pipeline under Bass Strait through to the current infrastructure that Victoria has and then on to the other local states. All via Gravity feed... probably goes against all current environmental constraints, considering the size of dam you would have to build in the West Tasmanian highlands.... Needs tend to overcome Environmental issues, especially asthetic issues, in the long term.

Australia does have enough water, its just the question of capturing it and moving it.

why Jan 19th 2008 5:02 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 
what about lake argyle

that's a big bit of water
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Argyle

http://www.kdc.wa.gov.au/kimberley/tk_ord.asp

arkon Jan 19th 2008 6:27 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by why (Post 5812685)

It's just a large puddle.

IvanM Jan 19th 2008 7:53 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809301)
Yes, except a much bigger scheme. Apparently on paper at least, it's possible to move water from the Highlands of Western Tasmania, via a pipeline under Bass Strait through to the current infrastructure that Victoria has and then on to the other local states. All via Gravity feed... probably goes against all current environmental constraints, considering the size of dam you would have to build in the West Tasmanian highlands.... Needs tend to overcome Environmental issues, especially asthetic issues, in the long term.

Australia does have enough water, its just the question of capturing it and moving it.

Sounds like a project Stalin would be proud of. I heard of other plans to build canals from the top end to Perth and Brisbane. I'd love to know the real prices for the projects.

All coastal NSW has to do is start recycling. Inland is a different matter.

quercus Jan 22nd 2008 9:09 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle (Post 5809053)
I take a slightly different view... Open up the flood gates, import as many people as possible, Cause the reason to solve the water situation, and use the masses taxes to fix the water issue, and Australias fantastic growth potential for once and for all.... It's the availablity of water and a bigger populatiion holding this country back from becoming a very major player on the World Stage.

USA going slowly down the pan, only they haven't realised it yet.

why Jan 22nd 2008 9:19 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by quercus (Post 5827618)
USA going slowly down the pan, only they haven't realised it yet.

are we going with it

quercus Jan 23rd 2008 11:01 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by why (Post 5827660)
are we going with it

Not if we let go their coat tails ;)

why Jan 23rd 2008 11:08 pm

Re: The Future of Australia
 
just read whole thread (must be bored)

what about everyone moving out to all the little towns in the middle of no where and settling there in complete isolation from the outside world?????
you can buy houses for $40k + in outback towns there's no facilities and hardly any people..sounds great!!!!:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::rofl:

alicecat Jan 25th 2008 12:23 am

Re: The Future of Australia
 

Originally Posted by why (Post 5833040)
just read whole thread (must be bored)

what about everyone moving out to all the little towns in the middle of no where and settling there in complete isolation from the outside world?????
you can buy houses for $40k + in outback towns there's no facilities and hardly any people..sounds great!!!!:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::rofl:


Tried that. It is the people in them already that is the problem.


All times are GMT -12. The time now is 11:28 am.

Powered by vBulletin: ©2000 - 2026, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.