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-   -   Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U. (https://britishexpats.com/forum/barbie-92/did-uk-do-right-thing-voting-leave-e-u-879631/)

OzTennis Sep 10th 2016 1:54 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by Beoz (Post 12048409)
Back on property, do you think those new foreign investors are financial dunces? You know .
... the UK economy is going to crash right?

They are buying property because it was immediately cheaper after Brexit. End of story. Time will only tell if they've made wise decisions. On the economy even the new PM is prognosticating tougher times ahead:

UK economy will suffer after Brexit vote - May | Reuters

"Britain's economy will suffer as a result of the decision to leave the European Union despite signs in recent economic data that the impact has not been as severe as some predicted, Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday."

Beoz Sep 10th 2016 10:50 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by OzTennis (Post 12048467)
They are buying property because it was immediately cheaper after Brexit. End of story. Time will only tell if they've made wise decisions. On the economy even the new PM is prognosticating tougher times ahead:

UK economy will suffer after Brexit vote - May | Reuters

"Britain's economy will suffer as a result of the decision to leave the European Union despite signs in recent economic data that the impact has not been as severe as some predicted, Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday."

Who cares. No one knows where this will go. Not even May. She is just hedging her bets.

I'm more interesting in understanding if you think foreign property investors don't know what they are doing.

If they are investing because the pound is cheap, then they obviously believe the pound is going to get stronger or the economy will grow - they would not have invested in the UK otherwise. That's the way investing works .... Right?

OzTennis Sep 10th 2016 7:28 pm

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by Beoz (Post 12048866)
Who cares. No one knows where this will go. Not even May. She is just hedging her bets.

I'm more interesting in understanding if you think foreign property investors don't know what they are doing.

If they are investing because the pound is cheap, then they obviously believe the pound is going to get stronger or the economy will grow - they would not have invested in the UK otherwise. That's the way investing works .... Right?

Who cares? You do obviously because if I make any statement you are there to contradict. I'm not particularly interested in foreign investors, I'm more interested in the bigger picture of the whole economy and how it is going to pan out post Brexit. If you believe the foreign investor has perfect knowledge, it's a perfect market and they make rational decisions every time then go ahead and believe it Adam (Smith).

Beoz Sep 10th 2016 11:25 pm

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by OzTennis (Post 12049017)
Who cares? You do obviously because if I make any statement you are there to contradict. I'm not particularly interested in foreign investors, I'm more interested in the bigger picture of the whole economy and how it is going to pan out post Brexit. If you believe the foreign investor has perfect knowledge, it's a perfect market and they make rational decisions every time then go ahead and believe it Adam (Smith).

To be honest, I'm trying to understand a few things myself about what Brexit is and what it means moving forward.

As you know, I haven't really voiced an outcome of Brexit for the UK. You have. So I'm asking you, as the expert on the outcome for Britain.

Foreign investors are a good measuring stick, who go to a fair deal of effort to invest abroad and must have some insight as to where the UK's future is.

If the foreign investor barometer is really that strong, and your articles were really vague and didn't prove as such, then the UK economy moving forward must be quite rosey right?

astera Sep 11th 2016 12:59 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 12048121)
Now, given this is the EU and they have been making dumb moves, it will probably be an EU ID card (papers please), but they will do something.

We aren't part of the Schengen agreement so everyone gets checked at our own borders. This still hasn't stopped massive amounts of illegals from distant lands entering our shores and picking up "backstage" jobs.

I bet it would take someone no time to get a job in some London restaurant, without a work permit, getting paid below minimum wage, in cash, etc.

Plus the last time I checked we were the ones who went apeshit when the notion of a UK ID card was proposed...

What surprises me is actually the Calais jungle. :) I mean what the heck are those people, who could easily go to Sweden or Spain, doing trying to break through to the UK? I think they have some sort of ingrained misconception of paradise across the channel... simply because it's hard to reach.

OzTennis Sep 11th 2016 3:08 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by Beoz (Post 12049133)
To be honest, I'm trying to understand a few things myself about what Brexit is and what it means moving forward.

As you know, I haven't really voiced an outcome of Brexit for the UK. You have. So I'm asking you, as the expert on the outcome for Britain.

Foreign investors are a good measuring stick, who go to a fair deal of effort to invest abroad and must have some insight as to where the UK's future is.

If the foreign investor barometer is really that strong, and your articles were really vague and didn't prove as such, then the UK economy moving forward must be quite rosey right?

The Bank of England cut interest rates to their lowest level in living memory and this was the first time in 7 years the rate had changed and it was down, they expanded their quantitative easing by £70 BILL (on top of the £375 BILL of assets already purchased).

Is this the action of a central bank which thinks all is sweet in the garden? Now if you think some foreigners exchanging their suddenly more valuable currencies into more pounds than they would have got pre-Brexit is an indicator of a healthy economy with great prospects then so be it. The PM is also warning that despite a few swallows post Brexit that doesn't make a summer. The funny thing is there are very few official stats yet for the 1st quarter after Brexit (because it doesn't end until end of Sept). We shall see what they show when they are released.

scot47 Sep 16th 2016 6:06 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 
Even now Brexiteers will not admit that there was no plan. Just simple Xenophobia !

astera Sep 17th 2016 8:24 pm

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by scot47 (Post 12054221)
Even now Brexiteers will not admit that there was no plan. Just simple Xenophobia !

I agree, that was the driving force behind all this.

Just look at the spike in hate crimes that have sky-rocketed since the vote. It all comes together to form a very ugly picture of the lowest levels of our society...

GarryP Sep 17th 2016 10:22 pm

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by astera (Post 12055307)
I agree, that was the driving force behind all this.

Just look at the spike in hate crimes that have sky-rocketed since the vote. It all comes together to form a very ugly picture of the lowest levels of our society...

If you want to see the reason behind it, you need to look at two graphs and one front page :

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kuM7SjNHG...al%2Bwages.jpg

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...10/jobless.jpg

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1521502/th...T-PAGE-570.jpg

The reality is that the GFC, created by bankers, has disproportionately hit the general workers in the UK. Employment, and standards of living have been seriously hit - and then papers owned by some of the 1% have told them it's all due to immigrants. Do you really want to point to "a very ugly picture of the lowest levels of our society", or maybe the finger should be pointed at those parts that haven't suffered at all it seems, and have been trying to divert blame?

Beoz Sep 18th 2016 12:18 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 12055382)
If you want to see the reason behind it, you need to look at two graphs and one front page :

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kuM7SjNHG...al%2Bwages.jpg

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...10/jobless.jpg

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1521502/th...T-PAGE-570.jpg

The reality is that the GFC, created by bankers, has disproportionately hit the general workers in the UK. Employment, and standards of living have been seriously hit - and then papers owned by some of the 1% have told them it's all due to immigrants. Do you really want to point to "a very ugly picture of the lowest levels of our society", or maybe the finger should be pointed at those parts that haven't suffered at all it seems, and have been trying to divert blame?

Ah yes. The Guardian at work again.

Diving a little deeper than a couple of images. France has an unemployment rate of +10% where the UK just defied the post Brexit prediction and posted a drop in unemployment - under 5%. Germany in recent years has just increased a minimum wage and skewing that stat a little.

In terms of real wages you want the figure to be 0%. A balance between wage increases and inflation. Somewhere like China where the real wage growth is high where there is a skills shortage prompting years of increasing salaries for the skilled due to supply and demand issues.

Other factors that contribute to such stats are things like the increases in availability of flexible, part time jobs.

astera Sep 18th 2016 6:35 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 12055382)
If you want to see the reason behind it, you need to look at two graphs and one front page

...

The reality is that the GFC, created by bankers, has disproportionately hit the general workers in the UK. Employment, and standards of living have been seriously hit - and then papers owned by some of the 1% have told them it's all due to immigrants. Do you really want to point to "a very ugly picture of the lowest levels of our society", or maybe the finger should be pointed at those parts that haven't suffered at all it seems, and have been trying to divert blame?

Ironically the chart shows that for the last 5 years unemployment has been steadily decreasing, which kind of goes against all the scare-mongering from the hate-inducing tabloids.

The problem certainly isn't EU migration as that is actually a positive thing for the UK. We're talking about people who are adding to the economy, pumping billions into the system rather than siphoning money out, and if they have children who go through our schools... then out comes a new generation of Brits. Win-win situation for the UK I would say.

I think the problem is non-EU immigration which actually accounts for the majority of migration to the UK, something that the gov't forgot to mention. Take away EU immigration and non-EU migrants would suddenly make up not just the majority but the VAST majority of entrants to our country.

The real problem is whether people are coming to contribute to the economy and push this nation forward or whether they're eyeing a free ride at the taxpayers' expense. In terms of participating in the economy there is quite a difference between EU and non-EU nationals when it comes to employment stats:

EU born 73%
Non-EU born 59%

Current employment stats by nationality are as follows:

Poland 81.2
South Africa 78
Germany 70.6
Ireland 68.9
USA 66.8

So the non-EU group is really being pushed up by a handful of countries like South Africa and the US or else those stats would be even more dire.

Bermudashorts Sep 18th 2016 6:52 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 12055382)
If you want to see the reason behind it, you need to look at two graphs and one front page :

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kuM7SjNHG...al%2Bwages.jpg

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...10/jobless.jpg

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1521502/th...T-PAGE-570.jpg

The reality is that the GFC, created by bankers, has disproportionately hit the general workers in the UK. Employment, and standards of living have been seriously hit - and then papers owned by some of the 1% have told them it's all due to immigrants. Do you really want to point to "a very ugly picture of the lowest levels of our society", or maybe the finger should be pointed at those parts that haven't suffered at all it seems, and have been trying to divert blame?

Sigh. Yes living in UK is just like living in Greece. Except we are all starving here too.

GarryP Sep 18th 2016 11:18 am

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by astera (Post 12055701)
Ironically the chart shows that for the last 5 years unemployment has been steadily decreasing, which kind of goes against all the scare-mongering from the hate-inducing tabloids.

What it shows is recent decrease from a significant spike in unemployment created from the GFC. That spike has been accompanied by a significant reduction in living standard. Upshot, people were hit hard and what jobs exist now are at a lower level than before. Thus they are dissatisfied and the discontent has been directed towards immigrants, rather than the true cause.

That didn't happen by accident, and neither is it surprising.


Originally Posted by astera (Post 12055701)
I think the problem is non-EU immigration which actually accounts for the majority of migration to the UK, something that the gov't forgot to mention.

Not quite.

https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/m...ty_rltuVog.png

It's not as bad as the papers say, certainly, but the change has been a net shift towards EU migrants. There is also a question mark over the number of EU migrants arriving and staying - tax records suggest it's much higher than airport numbers would indicate, like two to three times.


Originally Posted by astera (Post 12055701)
Take away EU immigration and non-EU migrants would suddenly make up not just the majority but the VAST majority of entrants to our country.

Err, do you want to think over that statement a bit more?


Originally Posted by astera (Post 12055701)
The real problem is whether people are coming to contribute to the economy and push this nation forward or whether they're eyeing a free ride at the taxpayers' expense. In terms of participating in the economy there is quite a difference between EU and non-EU nationals when it comes to employment stats:

In this it's actually more important what their arrival does to people's standards of living and employability. If they shift the balance in supply/demand such that employers can cut wages and conditions, they will get the blame no matter what. And judging by my first chart, that's what looks to be happening. Lack of control and balancing makes for perceived injustice, and thus the problem you see.

Amazulu Sep 18th 2016 2:04 pm

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by Bermudashorts (Post 12055708)
Sigh. Yes living in UK is just like living in Greece. Except we are all starving here too.

I agree but as you know, anyone can find graphs and stats to fit any viewpoint that they like

That's BE for you!

ozzieeagle Sep 18th 2016 6:14 pm

Re: Did the UK do the right thing in voting to leave the E.U.
 

Originally Posted by Bermudashorts (Post 12055708)
Sigh. Yes living in UK is just like living in Greece. Except we are all starving here too.


Here's your problem...... 3 Jobs and still poor, how can that happen in a developed country. They do love to develop an underclass in the UK eh. Looks like it's growing rapidly.... Then people are stupid enough to complain when violence increases. That is always going to be end of result of poverty.

This is exactly why unions are needed.



Poverty in the UK: 'Three jobs and still poor' - BBC News


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