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Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Old Mar 12th 2010, 11:07 pm
  #76  
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Just a heads-up for the Qld coast from Sunshine Coast northwards.

Tropical Cyclone Ului (YOU-LOO-EEE) has been building near Vanuatu, and was named and went to a Cat Two overnight. Currently heading in a westerly direction. The path is by no means certain, and it may still turn away from Australia, but if it keeps heading west it could hit the coast anywhere from the Sunshine Coast northwards. Seems to be deepening quite fast so may come this way as a Cat 4 or 5. Its not showing on the Bureau site yet as its still outside their regions, though you can track it via th Ocean Wind Warnings. Other sites like www.weatherzone.com.au have some info, as does the Vanuatu weather service

http://www.meteo.gov.vu/TropicalCycl...3/Default.aspx

The current high pressure area in the Tasman Sea will affect where it makes landfall, if it gets this far. The quicker the high pressure area weakens, the further north the cyclone is likely to be when it makes landfall - that could be the difference between Bundaberg - Gladstone as opposed to Cairns-Townsville.


Definitely worth keeping an eye on, and reviewing any cyclone kit/plan that you have, especially as this season has been so quiet. One experieenced cyclone watcher this morning is predictiung Mackay/Whitsundays as the crossing point on March 20th.......a date that sends shivers through Qld cyclone watchers as thats the date TC Larry hit.

Keep your eyes peeled guys, I'll post updates when I get them.
Attached Thumbnails Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-13031065654.gif   Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-idv60001.gif   Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-sh202010.10031218.gif  
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 1:29 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

oh noes not cylons
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 1:58 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by Pollyana View Post
Just a heads-up for the Qld coast from Sunshine Coast northwards.

Tropical Cyclone Ului (YOU-LOO-EEE) has been building near Vanuatu, and was named and went to a Cat Two overnight. Currently heading in a westerly direction. The path is by no means certain, and it may still turn away from Australia, but if it keeps heading west it could hit the coast anywhere from the Sunshine Coast northwards. Seems to be deepening quite fast so may come this way as a Cat 4 or 5. Its not showing on the Bureau site yet as its still outside their regions, though you can track it via th Ocean Wind Warnings. Other sites like www.weatherzone.com.au have some info, as does the Vanuatu weather service

http://www.meteo.gov.vu/TropicalCycl...3/Default.aspx

The current high pressure area in the Tasman Sea will affect where it makes landfall, if it gets this far. The quicker the high pressure area weakens, the further north the cyclone is likely to be when it makes landfall - that could be the difference between Bundaberg - Gladstone as opposed to Cairns-Townsville.


Definitely worth keeping an eye on, and reviewing any cyclone kit/plan that you have, especially as this season has been so quiet. One experieenced cyclone watcher this morning is predictiung Mackay/Whitsundays as the crossing point on March 20th.......a date that sends shivers through Qld cyclone watchers as thats the date TC Larry hit.

Keep your eyes peeled guys, I'll post updates when I get them.
Cat 4 or 5 thanks for the heads up Polly.
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 7:19 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by The A Team View Post
Cat 4 or 5 thanks for the heads up Polly.
OK, here's the latest:
===========================
Bureau of Met:

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category 2, was located northwest of Vanuatu near
latitude 13.8 south longitude 164.4 east at 10am AEST Saturday. Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to continue to intensify while moving slowly westward.

Likelihood of a new tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: High
Monday: High
Tuesday: High

=================================
This is from the current State forecast from the Bureau -


TC Ului is expected to continue to move very slowly, initially in a W'ly direction and then in a SW'ly direction. Will the system reach the east coast? It is still too early to say as it will depend on the strength and timing of the middle to upper trough which will amplify across the Tasman Sea about mid week and its interaction the tropical cyclone. So until then strong to gale force winds will continue along most of the east coast. Showers will continue in most east coast districts and spill over into adjacent inland..........weather over the south-east and central areas of the state will depend on whether TC Ului cross the coast. If it does cross the coast then heavy rain will develop over parts of the south-east. Even if the system steers away from the coast an increase in showers will occur along parts of the southern coast from Wednesday onwards.



================================

Weatherzone.com.au has a great forum which gets very technical - well beyond me - but te jist of wat tey are saying at present is that the likelihood is for a crossing in Central Queensland - Rockhampton/Mackay/Gladstone. Lots of power and a LOT of rain with it due to the amount of ocean crossing. Obviously ANY rain coming into Qld at present is bad news.

=================================

We are certainly anticipating a busy couple of weeks at work, which isn't good news for whichever bit of the coast Ului decides to make for. More when I get it.....
Attached Thumbnails Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-65654.gif   Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-13.3.10.jpg   Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-13.3.10-2-.jpg  
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 7:55 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

OK now I need to have words. My daughter is heading up to Heron Island on 21st for a school trip. I've paid out a lot of money and if this holiday is ruined I will be seriously peed off. She's got a major stressful six months ahead of her and needs a great holiday.

Sort it please.
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 8:20 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by moneypenny20 View Post
OK now I need to have words. My daughter is heading up to Heron Island on 21st for a school trip. I've paid out a lot of money and if this holiday is ruined I will be seriously peed off. She's got a major stressful six months ahead of her and needs a great holiday.

Sort it please.
Yes miss, I'll do my best.........
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 8:31 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by Pollyana View Post
Yes miss, I'll do my best.........
Not good enough. More effort required.
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 9:39 am
  #83  
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by moneypenny20 View Post
Not good enough. More effort required.
Bit tricky this one....could be a case of divided loyalties - I need the overtime, flights to pay for How about I try and divert it south so it makes land over the Gold Coast instead of the Whitsundays?
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 9:57 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by Pollyana View Post
Bit tricky this one....could be a case of divided loyalties - I need the overtime, flights to pay for How about I try and divert it south so it makes land over the Gold Coast instead of the Whitsundays?
She needs the holiday so I'll be a big person with a kind heart and take the weather. They're driving up, so it needs to stay off shore until they're up there. Would be ever so grateful
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 10:10 am
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Current Sat picture, wind predictions

The track is still too far off the coast, and there are too many variables to predict it. The forum on Weatherzone is fascinating reading - bets on everywhere from SEQ to FNQ, though Mackay seems to be a favourite at present. The only thing people seem to agree on is it's going to deepen fast to a Cat 4 or 5 and keep heading west.......
Attached Thumbnails Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-idyml005.aus.20100313_0000.png   Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-ide00035.201003130830.jpg  
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 1:59 pm
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Now a Cat Three, heading WNW near the Solomons. Most predictions at present are for Mackay-Rockhampton area....

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohe...hirgmscol.html
Attached Thumbnails Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-sh202010.10031306.gif   Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului-ide00035.201003131230.jpg  
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 2:44 pm
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Keep up the good work Pollyana

Just reading the forums on the weather zone site. And them guys are saying its going to be huge and not sure where its going to hit. From my experience the guys on weather forums are not far wrong.

One guys from the sunny coast said to make sure to clear up your gardens and have your storm packs ready.

I wonder will I be like Dorothy from the wizard of oz next week

Anyway thanks for the updates Polly you are an angel in disguise

Paddy
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 3:10 pm
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by fairwayskid View Post
Keep up the good work Pollyana

Just reading the forums on the weather zone site. And them guys are saying its going to be huge and not sure where its going to hit. From my experience the guys on weather forums are not far wrong.

One guys from the sunny coast said to make sure to clear up your gardens and have your storm packs ready.

I wonder will I be like Dorothy from the wizard of oz next week

Anyway thanks for the updates Polly you are an angel in disguise

Paddy
Love of my job (even on the nights when I'm not working!) is what's at the root of it Paddy, and warning people is the best way to make sure they are prepared. The Weatherzone forum guys are pretty good, as you can tell from the level of techincal stuff on there - way beyond my skills!! Having followed their predictions on previous occasions I am willing to take teir concerns seriously. Plus I can agree with them that Ului has deepened (or "bombed" vey very fast thats not a good sign. Also, after some of the dithering tracks we have seen with recent systems, this one seems to be on a mission and not diverting for anything.

Latest track map........ expected to enter Australia's waters around 6am tomorrow morning. That should make for an exciting shift change for a few people.....for once I'm glad I have the night off
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 3:32 pm
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by Pollyana View Post
Love of my job (even on the nights when I'm not working!) is what's at the root of it Paddy, and warning people is the best way to make sure they are prepared. The Weatherzone forum guys are pretty good, as you can tell from the level of techincal stuff on there - way beyond my skills!! Having followed their predictions on previous occasions I am willing to take teir concerns seriously. Plus I can agree with them that Ului has deepened (or "bombed" vey very fast thats not a good sign. Also, after some of the dithering tracks we have seen with recent systems, this one seems to be on a mission and not diverting for anything.

Latest track map........ expected to enter Australia's waters around 6am tomorrow morning. That should make for an exciting shift change for a few people.....for once I'm glad I have the night off
You might get a call to do the night shift as it is looking like we are in for a hell of a storm.

But I take my hat off to you for doing such a great job and if hits you may not have to pay for flights to see your buddy you may get a free a flight over to see him

Paddy
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Old Mar 13th 2010, 3:40 pm
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Default Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului

Originally Posted by fairwayskid View Post
You might get a call to do the night shift as it is looking like we are in for a hell of a storm.

But I take my hat off to you for doing such a great job and if hits you may not have to pay for flights to see your buddy you may get a free a flight over to see him

Paddy
Naaa, I'm safe being off tonight, got a good few night shifts coming up this week though, I'm sure of that, plus maybe some extra ones on top of normal. Not a good time for us though, we only have a small staff base, and they have been working flat out for a few weeks with the floods. All happening at once at the end of the season rather than spread out in its usual way

You could be right about the free flight though, even if I could only get the wind to take all his clothes and books over for him it'd make life easier!!!
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