Beer bets...
Apr 28th 2012, 9:11 am
#16
Joined on April fools day
Joined: Apr 2012
Location: 30 miles from a decent grocery store.
Posts: 10,642
Re: Beer bets...
errrr NO I DIDNT!!!!!
I might thank you to correctly quote my posts.
Go and read what I wrote: This is an EXACT cut and paste (part from the color):
"I think Greece and probably Italy will default by very early next year, followed rapidly by a collapse of the entire Euro. I pray that I am wrong."
Greece DID default. They renegotiated the loans. They called it a haircut, but in reality it was a default. Investors didn't get their money back. They got less than 50%, and most of that was actually further extensions of existing loans, meaning that Greece actually paid nothing back on time.
Now - do you understand what a default is?
I might thank you to correctly quote my posts.
Go and read what I wrote: This is an EXACT cut and paste (part from the color):
"I think Greece and probably Italy will default by very early next year, followed rapidly by a collapse of the entire Euro. I pray that I am wrong."
Greece DID default. They renegotiated the loans. They called it a haircut, but in reality it was a default. Investors didn't get their money back. They got less than 50%, and most of that was actually further extensions of existing loans, meaning that Greece actually paid nothing back on time.
Now - do you understand what a default is?
Apr 28th 2012, 9:13 am
#17
Not allowed opinions.
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Sydney
Posts: 4,565
Apr 28th 2012, 9:16 am
#18
Joined on April fools day
Joined: Apr 2012
Location: 30 miles from a decent grocery store.
Posts: 10,642
Re: Beer bets...
Apr 28th 2012, 9:52 am
#19
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,396
Re: Beer bets...
Do you read what I write?
"I think the Euro has about a year to run before the first country pulls out – and I have a gut feeling it wont be the defaulters parade of PIGS. More likely one of the countries who can see themselves bleeding to death supporting the unsupportable.
That was April last year.
You do understand that "about" means something different to "exactly"....
"I think the Euro has about a year to run before the first country pulls out – and I have a gut feeling it wont be the defaulters parade of PIGS. More likely one of the countries who can see themselves bleeding to death supporting the unsupportable.
That was April last year.
You do understand that "about" means something different to "exactly"....
errrr NO I DIDNT!!!!!
I might thank you to correctly quote my posts.
Go and read what I wrote: This is an EXACT cut and paste (part from the color):
"I think Greece and probably Italy will default by very early next year, followed rapidly by a collapse of the entire Euro. I pray that I am wrong."
Greece DID default. They renegotiated the loans. They called it a haircut, but in reality it was a default. Investors didn't get their money back. They got less than 50%, and most of that was actually further extensions of existing loans, meaning that Greece actually paid nothing back on time.
Now - do you understand what a default is?
I might thank you to correctly quote my posts.
Go and read what I wrote: This is an EXACT cut and paste (part from the color):
"I think Greece and probably Italy will default by very early next year, followed rapidly by a collapse of the entire Euro. I pray that I am wrong."
Greece DID default. They renegotiated the loans. They called it a haircut, but in reality it was a default. Investors didn't get their money back. They got less than 50%, and most of that was actually further extensions of existing loans, meaning that Greece actually paid nothing back on time.
Now - do you understand what a default is?
We are in a fine mess and no mistake. I think Greece and probably
Italy will default by very early next year, followed rapidly by a collapse of the entire Euro. I pray that I am wrong.
Putting your typing skills aside now, Italy didn't default even though you said they probably would. Also there was no collapse of the entire Euro as you said there would be.
Trying to deflect from what you said doesn't work, the fact remains that in April 2011 you said the Euro had about a year before the first country pulls out - and then in November you said at least one default would happen at the beginning of 2012 which would be rapdily followed by a collapse of the entire Euro.
It was a copy & paste. Typing a sentence without line breaks is easy.
Apr 28th 2012, 9:56 am
#20
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,396
Re: Beer bets...
I haven't commented on the Eurozone, I have simply commented on the OPs many many previous posts on this topic which have suggested the downfall is nigh.
Apr 28th 2012, 9:57 am
#21
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,396
Re: Beer bets...
The Euro collapse threads might become a bit like the Australian housing bubble bursting threads...harp on about it for long enough and eventually, one day...the facts (opinions) in em will be come true? Taking a bet on a Eurozone country leaving now is hardly a leap of faith!
Apr 28th 2012, 10:28 am
#22
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
Re: Beer bets...
Put 5 economists in a room and you'll get 6 opinions.
If the 'experts' rarely get predictions right, why would a punter on an Internet forum get it right?
If the 'experts' rarely get predictions right, why would a punter on an Internet forum get it right?
Apr 28th 2012, 2:45 pm
#23
Not allowed opinions.
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Sydney
Posts: 4,565
Re: Beer bets...
Yes, you said about a year... which means sometime around now. Definitely doesn't mean more than 2 years from that point, as in your first post of this thread "mid 2013".
I did copy & paste, however it seems that you added a line break in the middle of the sentence. So this is an EXACT copy & paste:
We are in a fine mess and no mistake. I think Greece and probably
Italy will default by very early next year, followed rapidly by a collapse of the entire Euro. I pray that I am wrong.
Putting your typing skills aside now, Italy didn't default even though you said they probably would. Also there was no collapse of the entire Euro as you said there would be.
Trying to deflect from what you said doesn't work, the fact remains that in April 2011 you said the Euro had about a year before the first country pulls out - and then in November you said at least one default would happen at the beginning of 2012 which would be rapdily followed by a collapse of the entire Euro.
It was a copy & paste. Typing a sentence without line breaks is easy.
I did copy & paste, however it seems that you added a line break in the middle of the sentence. So this is an EXACT copy & paste:
We are in a fine mess and no mistake. I think Greece and probably
Italy will default by very early next year, followed rapidly by a collapse of the entire Euro. I pray that I am wrong.
Putting your typing skills aside now, Italy didn't default even though you said they probably would. Also there was no collapse of the entire Euro as you said there would be.
Trying to deflect from what you said doesn't work, the fact remains that in April 2011 you said the Euro had about a year before the first country pulls out - and then in November you said at least one default would happen at the beginning of 2012 which would be rapdily followed by a collapse of the entire Euro.
It was a copy & paste. Typing a sentence without line breaks is easy.
Easy money for a guy like you.... Come on, all you need to do is reply with "yes" and I will consider the bet on!
Come on mate, put the bet on....
Last edited by slapphead_otool; Apr 28th 2012 at 3:14 pm.
Apr 28th 2012, 3:04 pm
#24
BE Forum Addict
Joined: May 2006
Location: In the tree across the road, watching you with binoculars.
Posts: 1,556
Re: Beer bets...
sausage
Apr 28th 2012, 3:05 pm
#25
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2012
Location: York
Posts: 323
Re: Beer bets...
I wont take the bet - I've seen the cost of beer in Aus 
However, I agree it's a matter of time before full collapse - and the only question is when rather than if. Not too sure it'll be by next year - they seem intent on shoring up the mess for as long as possible - the fact is if they'd excluded the countries who aren't valid members of the euro as soon as it became apparent (or better yet never let them join - Greece's dodgy bookkeeping anyone?) we almost certainly wouldn't be having this conversation
However, I agree it's a matter of time before full collapse - and the only question is when rather than if. Not too sure it'll be by next year - they seem intent on shoring up the mess for as long as possible - the fact is if they'd excluded the countries who aren't valid members of the euro as soon as it became apparent (or better yet never let them join - Greece's dodgy bookkeeping anyone?) we almost certainly wouldn't be having this conversation
Apr 28th 2012, 3:16 pm
#26
Not allowed opinions.
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Sydney
Posts: 4,565
Re: Beer bets...
I wont take the bet - I've seen the cost of beer in Aus
However, I agree it's a matter of time before full collapse - and the only question is when rather than if. Not too sure it'll be by next year - they seem intent on shoring up the mess for as long as possible - the fact is if they'd excluded the countries who aren't valid members of the euro as soon as it became apparent (or better yet never let them join - Greece's dodgy bookkeeping anyone?) we almost certainly wouldn't be having this conversation
However, I agree it's a matter of time before full collapse - and the only question is when rather than if. Not too sure it'll be by next year - they seem intent on shoring up the mess for as long as possible - the fact is if they'd excluded the countries who aren't valid members of the euro as soon as it became apparent (or better yet never let them join - Greece's dodgy bookkeeping anyone?) we almost certainly wouldn't be having this conversation
Apr 29th 2012, 11:38 pm
#28
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Sep 2005
Location: Somewhere South... Not Telling YOU
Posts: 10,959
Re: Beer bets...
Personally I wouldnt bet against you..... How about i buy you a pint when you're next in perf anyway?
Apr 30th 2012, 3:21 am
#29
Not allowed opinions.
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Sydney
Posts: 4,565
Apr 30th 2012, 7:56 am
#30
Excessively Diverted
Joined: Jan 2012
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 214
Re: Beer bets...