ABCDiamond

Unemployment Rate

• February 2009 = 4.9%
• January 2009 = 4.8%
• December 2008 = 4.4%
• December 2004 = 5.1%
• December 1998 = 7.5%
• December 1994 = 9.0%

Based on Trend Estimates from Australian Bureau of Statistics, figures released 12th March 2009.

February 2009

• Employment increased to 10,811,700
• Unemployment increased to 561,100
• Unemployment Rate increased to 4.9%
• Participation Rate increased to 65.4%

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]?OpenDocument

bcworld

Any reason why you quote trend estimates rather than seasonally adjusted as are more commonly reported?

The seasonally adjusted numbers did of course show a much larger rise from 4.8% to 5.2%.

Other key facts were a large decrease in full time employment and particularly large increases in unemployment in WA and Vic.

NKSK version 2

Of course there is.

ABCDiamond

The Trend estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

The ABS definition states:
and in their list of definitions:
Figures that give a greater swing either one way or the other are of course much more interesting for news stories

NKSK version 2

Unemployment hits 5.2%


Australia's unemployment rate has hit 5.2% after the economy suffered the biggest monthly drop in full-time jobs since 1991.


The jobless rate is now the worst it has been in four years, further proof the economic downturn is getting worse and adding to the case for another rate cut when the Reserve Bank board next meets early in April.

The Age

ABCDiamond

Sometimes the Trend figures are worse than the original and the normal seasonally adjusted figures.
And I have seen the newspapers quoting trend figures at that time...

I decided to stick with the figures that the ABS say are the most reliable, and actually quote themselves...

These are the first figures quoted by the ABS at the link gave:

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS
(The supplier of the information)

ABCDiamond

And of course we trust the newspapers to provide better information that the Australian Bureau of Statistics ?

bcworld

The ABS also provide this statistic though....it's on the page you linked to!

NKSK version 2

No but I'm interestred to know how a qaulity paper like The Age could say that the jobless rate is the highest for 4 years.

Australian newspapers are not known for their pessimism - it's usually quite the opposite.

DadAgain

Highest for 4 years?...

wow... so its not *quite* as bad as it was in scarey old 2005?

[sarcasm]
I'm sure we all remember the economic hardships the world went through in '05, the headlines of crashes, mess redundancies etc etc
[/sarcasm]

If anything this headline (taken alone and out of context) is ENORMOUSLY reassuring!! 2005 we were in the middle of a drastic skills shortage, I couldnt move for being mown down with offers of employment, my wages were growing as employers tried to hold on to me and apart from increasing interest rates and petrol prices MY economic world was looking pretty fine!

ABCDiamond

Yes they provide both rates, with the Trend one first, and this quote from the ABS: Hence my reason for using the Trend Estimates.
Coupled to that, the data file that I get from the ABS, only has the Trend estimates showing for each month between Feb-1978 and Feb-2009.

You did ask why I "quote trend estimates", and that's why.

ABCDiamond

As a comparison for each February trend unemployment figure for the last 15 years:

Feb-1995 9.2%
Feb-1996 8.8%
Feb-1997 9.0%
Feb-1998 8.4%
Feb-1999 7.6%
Feb-2000 6.8%
Feb-2001 6.6%
Feb-2002 6.9%
Feb-2003 6.3%
Feb-2004 5.6%
Feb-2005 5.1%
Feb-2006 4.9%
Feb-2007 4.4%
Feb-2008 3.9%
Feb-2009 4.9%

Whether it is Trend or Seasonally adjusted or what, it gives us an idea of what is happening, and where we stand compared to the last 15 years.

bcworld

Have a look at the front page of the ABS website: http://www.abs.gov.au/

You'll see this:

'Unemployment rate increases by 0.4 pts to 5.2% in February 2009'

....linking to your article.

I guess the ABS must be into sensationalising things as well.

iamthecreaturefromuranus

How's your economic world looking now?.

Its all down to sentiment. Most people are currently worried that their job is about to disappear and that's what will drive all the worlds economies downwards for the foreseeable future.

ABCDiamond

OK, I have looked at it.... It hasn't changed...

The bottom line is that the ABS state the following THREE things of relevance:

1. Unemployment Rate increased to 4.9% - Trend Estimates
   
2. Unemployment Rate increased to 5.2% - Seasonally Adjusted
   
3. The trend estimates provide a more reliable guide to the underlying direction of the original estimates and are more suitable than either the seasonally adjusted or original estimates for most business decisions and policy advice.

I was asked why I use the Trend figures, and my reason is:

• The ABS say that the Trend figures give a more reliable guide.