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Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by Don
Big falls in the UK housing market, average house price down GBP2140 since July 2004. As reported by the Nationwide this morning. With an average property price of £150,000, £170 isn't even worth thinking about |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by Don
Looks like our biggest UK building society thinks you're wrong, Mike,Big falls in the UK housing market, average house price down GBP2140 since July 2004. As reported by the Nationwide this morning.
If you are going to reference a report, please read it first. From the very same report: “Despite price growth over the last three months being slightly weaker than we had expected, developments remain consistent with our view that over the coming years, house prices are more likely to grow at a very subdued rate rather than fall sharply. This does not mean that prices will not fall in isolated months. "In fact there have now been seven monthly declines in house prices since the start of 1999; a period which saw house prices more than double. However, a sustained period of falling prices appears unlikely while the economy is growing quickly and the jobs market remains strong. In addition, we believe that interest rates will also remain supportive if the base rate peaks close to 5% as this represents a historically low level – particularly given the highly competitive mortgage market. "Our view is that the current moderation in price growth expectations will not translate into widespread panic and that instead the market will experience subdued levels of turnover and price growth.� Doh! :rolleyes: |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by spottydog
What they also said in their report is "Late summer/early autumn is normally a weaker period for house price growth and £1,970 of the £2,140 fall can be explained by normal seasonal movements in price. That means just £170 of the fall is due to underlying price falls".
With an average property price of £150,000, £170 isn't even worth thinking about They also say "Strength of labour market suggests housing market to tread water" i.e. No crash ! There has been a "debate" on the forum as to the true level of UK unemployment and the effect of this on house prices. What is important is employment, and this is at a record high around 29m ! It must be 3m higher than when house prices fell sharply in 1991. The UK labour market is the strongest I have seen it in my lifetime - that and 4.75% interest rates are still supportive factors. Jim |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by MikeStanton
Einstein,
If you are going to reference a report, please read it first. From the very same report: “Despite price growth over the last three months being slightly weaker than we had expected, developments remain consistent with our view that over the coming years, house prices are more likely to grow at a very subdued rate rather than fall sharply. This does not mean that prices will not fall in isolated months. "In fact there have now been seven monthly declines in house prices since the start of 1999; a period which saw house prices more than double. However, a sustained period of falling prices appears unlikely while the economy is growing quickly and the jobs market remains strong. In addition, we believe that interest rates will also remain supportive if the base rate peaks close to 5% as this represents a historically low level – particularly given the highly competitive mortgage market. "Our view is that the current moderation in price growth expectations will not translate into widespread panic and that instead the market will experience subdued levels of turnover and price growth.� Doh! :rolleyes: It doesn't take any reading between the lines to realise that the Nationwide thinks the UK housing market (and HPI) are up shit creek without a paddle. As borne out by the figures. Looks like I sold my place in Bristol at the perfect time! ;) |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by Don
Don't you get the nuance, the fact that this is the first time in 5 years that the Nationwide has admitted they think the market will stagnate for the next few years? For an organisation that has an enormous vested interest in seeing the housing mkt bubble just carry on inlating, and has been unrelentingly positive about the market's prospects (until now! :) ) that's some turnaround.
It doesn't take any reading between the lines to realise that the Nationwide thinks the UK housing market (and HPI) are up shit creek without a paddle. As borne out by the figures. Looks like I sold my place in Bristol at the perfect time! ;) Gosh, so now you've moved from a 'crash' to a 'nuance'. You were obviously reading a different report. Don, the more I read of you shrill, low-brow 'analysis' the more I feel UK house owners need not panic. Consider your public service done. |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by MikeStanton
Dear Mr "Clutching at straws",
Gosh, so now you've moved from a 'crash' to a 'nuance'. You were obviously reading a different report. Don, the more I read of you shrill, low-brow 'analysis' the more I feel UK house owners need not panic. Consider your public service done. I and many others think it'll be more like -25-30% though I go along with the 4 years or so. Can't think what would convince you that the UK housing mkt is in a downturn, Mike, as you seem to think comments from the likes of British Expat members selling their houses, estate agents, conveyancers and mortgage lenders; economic analysis; house sale statistics; and other anecdotes are all to be rubbished. But all the above are clearly pointing to the fact that the UK housing mkt was and is in a bubble and that the bubble has already started to deflate. ;) Try telling your version of events to the people on this forum who are having genuine difficulty selling their property and most of whom are looking at big reductions in what they thought was the value of their home until recently. |
Re: UK housing market
Weekend press in the UK is full of the news that the housing mkt is in decline, only question seems to be: is it just stagnation or anything up to -40%?
I would think -25% in real terms over 4 years is most probable, which for most home owners would put them back to about 2002, maybe a bit earlier for those in London/ best bits of South. |
Re: UK housing market
Well I don't think it is quite that bad yet - I have sold my house for just under the asking price in 2 and a half weeks - we are just exchanging now - fingers crossed it goes through.. altho I do agree they can't keep going up. We bought 3 years ago and wouldn't be able to now... but at least the profit will get us a nice start in Oz in January!!
If it all goes wrong when we get there and we end up coming back we'll never be able to get back on the ladder unless there is a massive crash...
Originally Posted by eatstatic
Thats correct after christmas when people have caned the credit cards, due to having to keep up apperances of affluence, they will then go and buy a house that is at historically high levels, also with rising interest rates. :rolleyes:
Don is correct on this one The Uk housing market is stuffed. First time buyers CANNOT enter the market, in London they have been prevented from for 3 years minimum. Now they rest of the UK is in the same boat. Traditional "climbers" up the ladder are unable to do so due to the stupid prices of houses. Five years back where I am someone could upgrade from a terrace to a three bed semi for about 30K now it is about 70/80K. For all of those who bought years back, see if you could afford your house NOW at current PRICES on your wages. Housing is unaffordable, a correction is already underway. Anyone selling now should slash 20% off what they think it is "worth" in order to get a quick sale. The boom days are long gone, people need to accept this and move on. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ |
Re: UK housing market
Don,see you still havent answered my question to your original post.What qualifies you to comment?You don't even live in the UK.What experience do you have?
The market is slowing,yes,but this time of year is always slow.I put a two bedroom apartment on the market in Shepherds Bush for £249,995 on 21/10 and it sold within a week.Crash?Get a life Don,stop scare mongering. |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by shol
Don,see you still havent answered my question to your original post.What qualifies you to comment?You don't even live in the UK.What experience do you have?
The market is slowing,yes,but this time of year is always slow.I put a two bedroom apartment on the market in Shepherds Bush for £249,995 on 21/10 and it sold within a week.Crash?Get a life Don,stop scare mongering. If you sold quickly, good luck to you - sounds like you had a realistic idea of your flat's mkt value. Most people are still living in cloud cuckoo land as regards real mkt value. Any property priced correctly should still sell reasonably quickly, many thousands of properties will be sold in the next 6 months until the Easter pick-up but not over-priced ones. I'm hopefully not scare-mongering but the voice of realism. |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by Don
Sorry I missed your original post. What qualifies me to make a comment or two? The hope that I may help a few people who can't see the big picture?
Can't you go back to your normal ranting about why Europe is so much better than UK? At least you have 24 member countries to choose from and more besides. And it provides a bit of variety. I tell you what; if your rabid drivel turns out to be correct, I'll eat humble pie. In the meantime, please lock yourself in a room ...and remove your Internet connection. |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by MikeStanton
Enough already. I am sure the good folk can make up their own minds.
Can't you go back to your normal ranting about why Europe is so much better than UK? At least you have 24 member countries to choose from and more besides. And it provides a bit of variety. I tell you what; if your rabid drivel turns out to be correct, I'll eat humble pie. In the meantime, please lock yourself in a room ...and remove your Internet connection. |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by Don
Sorry I missed your original post. What qualifies me to make a comment or two? The hope that I may help a few people who can't see the big picture?
A stitch in time saves nine - better to understand a couple of thousan d off the asking price now is better than 30% off in 3 years' time. I am still a bit exposed to the UK housing mkt through a 25% share in a flat Any property priced correctly should still sell reasonably quickly, many thousands of properties will be sold in the next 6 months until the Easter pick-up but not over-priced ones. I'm hopefully not scare-mongering but the voice of realism. |
Re: UK housing market
Originally Posted by MikeStanton
You haven't answered Shol's question. Your claimed concern for your fellow man is no qualification.
Until people have a good understanding how the market is likely to move, selling now is risky. Unless you can guarantee (which you can't) that the market will drop significantly and very soon, your 'advice' is very poor. OMG, you must be having panic attacks. You'd better sell your share damn quick! I love the blindingly obvious.... Mmmm, let me think. No, you're scare-mongering. Selling to rent (if you intend to stay in UK) is certainly risky as the outcome is not certain and the costs of selling then re-purchase are rather high. Selling because you are migrating and want a certain outcome as regards house value (now) and exchange rate (now) might appeal to a lot of people. |
Re: UK housing market
Hi everyone, I dont want to stire things up here but my house is on the market now in Wales and I've seen the house price's fall and I no long think its seasonal, seasonal is just a slow down THIS is more then that I've not seen a £20,000 to 30,000 drop as a slow down thats whats happing here!
For my 2p I think house price's will drop a little more and stay that way for next year, just my thoughts. BTW house price's in scotland dont seem to be hit yet but give it till jan :( |
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