Recession - Down under?
#1
Recession - Down under?
Copying the US and UK's behavior pattern, Oz media and government has totally ignored the upcoming economic downturn. Sometimes even tried to convince the public into thinking the opposite will continue to happen. I'm no expert, maybe it was best for Oz to be ignorant until its time was due, but now its there, knocking loudly on the door and since its already happened to US and UK, Oz does look a bit foolish for not vocally predicting it.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sto...015810,00.html
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/a...aspx?id=248833
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...ction=business
http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story...7-3462,00.html
So now the house price predictions have gone from "on the up" straight to "worst since great depression", the odds are Oz will suffer a fully blown recession. Anyone disagree?
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sto...015810,00.html
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/a...aspx?id=248833
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...ction=business
http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story...7-3462,00.html
So now the house price predictions have gone from "on the up" straight to "worst since great depression", the odds are Oz will suffer a fully blown recession. Anyone disagree?
#2
Re: Recession - Down under?
No big deal though. Just need to save soap and darn socks for a few years like our parents used to :-)
#3
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 10,375
Re: Recession - Down under?
And pick up bargains as others panic
#4
Re: Recession - Down under?
Here's some more fuel for the fire from this mornings papers.
http://business.theage.com.au/more-b...0713-3ejk.html
Very glad we factored in up to 13% interest rates when we decided on the max loan for our house 3 years ago. approaching 10% doesn't seem so bad now as a result :-)
http://business.theage.com.au/more-b...0713-3ejk.html
Very glad we factored in up to 13% interest rates when we decided on the max loan for our house 3 years ago. approaching 10% doesn't seem so bad now as a result :-)
#5
Re: Recession - Down under?
Does this mean that house-prices will go down? What about interest rates? We're about a year away from getting to Oz and I plan buy/build a house when we get there. Should I be depressed or upbeat about this imminent downturn?
- CDM
- CDM
#6
Re: Recession - Down under?
Property nearing once-in-100-year slump
For all those fleeing doom & gloom in the UK, the media here is all of a sudden laying on the same, really thick! If the Oz property market had been on a course maybe just to flatten, I think it is being well and truly talked out of that now.
I'd not be comfortable buying now. Of course long term, it will probably be fine, but I'd rather take a chance and buy later - I actually don't think there's any chance of price increases over the next 12 - 18 months.
#7
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 10,375
Re: Recession - Down under?
For the average bruce, petrol prices are killing aussies, food price hikes are maxed to the extreme by the total lack of competition in just about anything here. 2 companies own 74%+ of petrols cos and almost all supermarkets. Green policy will push the price of electricity and fuel well up and I dont think most aussies realise that.
Jobs are dropping notably in some industries like housing where the gov cliams there is a shortage of workers ( gov wants lower wages ) . If your asking about house prices totally depends what you are buying, first point bulding materials are rising at a staggering rate, even more than usual, as petrol rises, people want to live closer in to the already crammed cities, shortage of land in those areas already, million house shortfall, less than 1% vacancy on rentals and building starts well down so could suggest after a short fall there will be one hell of a building boom again.
Some areas of OZ have fell think perth was 5% , melb sales have dropped, bris well our bris house, worse house than ours just sold for $80,000 more than we paid late last year, but we dont buy mega mass build estate houses this was one off waterfront in an area that had massive improvements starting 2 mos after we bought it
Should you be upbeat or depressed. Depends its a very expensive place to live now, but if the doom and gloom of the aussie papers continues, punters will panic and there will be share/currency/house bargains to be had before the next up cycle, suppose it all depends if your a panic pants or someone who sees opportunity.
Last edited by jad n rich; Jul 13th 2008 at 10:20 pm.
#8
Re: Recession - Down under?
Wait till Rudd gets his ETS going and you can forget about a recession, there will be a Depression.
#10
Re: Recession - Down under?
Will there be a recession here? Who knows. If there is a recession, will it be mild or severe? I don't think there will be a recession, but what do I know? Unlike some on here, I don't claim to 'know' what's going to happen. Most 'experts' talk out of their arses.
Here is why I don't think there will be a recession in Australia:
I'm usually against high taxes and big surpluses - like we have in Australia at the moment. Right now though, this is exactly what Australia needs. The government can cut taxes to provide stimulus and they can also undertake porkbarrel projects - infrastructure for example - to keep industry active. UK has no surplus so this option is not available to them.
Resources. Often talked about but they are a reality. Many projects now coming on stream, providing massive, extra royalties to both the Feds and WA and Qld. Ongoing and new projects will keep industry active. Resources will provide major 'insulation' against recession.
That's my opinion but who knows?
Here is why I don't think there will be a recession in Australia:
I'm usually against high taxes and big surpluses - like we have in Australia at the moment. Right now though, this is exactly what Australia needs. The government can cut taxes to provide stimulus and they can also undertake porkbarrel projects - infrastructure for example - to keep industry active. UK has no surplus so this option is not available to them.
Resources. Often talked about but they are a reality. Many projects now coming on stream, providing massive, extra royalties to both the Feds and WA and Qld. Ongoing and new projects will keep industry active. Resources will provide major 'insulation' against recession.
That's my opinion but who knows?
#11
Re: Recession - Down under?
Rudd & Swan were caught with there dacks down fighting inflation tooth
and nail ,when along came the credit crunch and put a spanner in the
works .The figures are all over the place due to a credit crunch
and a resources boom which are misleading the job figures. I think the
I M F should audit the rudd Governments books there hot boiled
come back John Howard all is forgiven.
NZ Is in Recession and see no shame in it and dont bend the
figures.
PS news .com.au Run hot and cold what a load of rubbish
and nail ,when along came the credit crunch and put a spanner in the
works .The figures are all over the place due to a credit crunch
and a resources boom which are misleading the job figures. I think the
I M F should audit the rudd Governments books there hot boiled
come back John Howard all is forgiven.
NZ Is in Recession and see no shame in it and dont bend the
figures.
PS news .com.au Run hot and cold what a load of rubbish
Last edited by stariston; Jul 14th 2008 at 12:35 am.
#12
Re: Recession - Down under?
Rudd & Swan were caught with there dacks down fighting inflation tooth
and nail ,when along came the credit crunch and put a spanner in the
works .The figures are all over the place due to a credit crunch
and a resources boom which are misleading the job figures. I think the
I M F should audit the rudd Governments books there hot boiled
come back John Howard all is forgiven.
NZ Is in Recession and see no shame in it and dont bend the
figures.
and nail ,when along came the credit crunch and put a spanner in the
works .The figures are all over the place due to a credit crunch
and a resources boom which are misleading the job figures. I think the
I M F should audit the rudd Governments books there hot boiled
come back John Howard all is forgiven.
NZ Is in Recession and see no shame in it and dont bend the
figures.
#13
Re: Recession - Down under?
Also KRudd and Co are not telling us how much their, waste of time, ETS is going to cost the average 'working' family. It was all well and good for them to spout off about 'saving the environment' to get elected. Signing Kyoto was easy peasy. Now the reality - it's gonna hurt.
to trash the country
#14
Re: Recession - Down under?
He doesn't spend any time here to trash the country though. He has spent nearly all his time since the election visiting foreign places with his entourage. He is like acting like Gordon Brown who was going to save Africa with UK taxpayers money. Rudd is going to save the world from Global Warming, as if 20 million Australians will make any dent when China is commissioning a coal fired power station every week. The guy has shit for brains.
#15
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2002
Location: An expat Aussie trying to understand why anyone wants to move to Oz.
Posts: 485