DownUnderPaddy

The following summarisied from this mornings articles, referenced from :

Timing it right to beat the property clock
http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

What time is it in your state?
http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...002261,00.html

----------------------------------------------------------
South Australia - 7 o’clock
"Property sales in Adelaide remain low with little improvement in the past year.
Adelaide’s recovery is taking a little bit longer. It is so widely expected that interest rates will be moving off their historical lows, so most people know they are unsustainably low,"

Victoria – 12 o’clock
"Good properties are few and far between but there are plenty of buyers.
Prices in Melbourne are roughly back to 2007 levels and in some cases surpassing them."
The market will stay this way for some time to come, he says, as there is a lot of pent-up buyer demand with no sign of any softening."

Queensland – 6 o’clock
"Brisbane is trailing the property market recovery but as it shakes off its hangover there will definitely be growth.
It is moving more from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Adelaide and Brisbane are in similar positions because they both had quite similar growth phases in 2007, so the 2009 growth rates have not been very high.

New South Wales – 11.30
"NSW is on the brink of a housing crash caused largely by the firsthome buyer grant and overzealous lending by the banks.
Prices will tumble."

Tasmania – 7 o’clock
"The median house price in Hobart is $354,000 and its been at that level since about May 2008.
It is the most affordable market in Australia and it’s likely to see growth opportunities because of baby boomers looking to escape the rat-race from Melbourne and other cities," he says."

Cant rain all the time2

"Property sales in Adelaide remain low with little improvement in the past year.
Adelaide’s recovery is taking a little bit longer. It is so widely expected that interest rates will be moving off their historical lows, so most people know they are unsustainably low,"

Well I'm no expert but I do trawl the net at least once a week and I would say that any decent properties in Adelaide have been selling in about 3/4 weeks. There has also been no drop in house prices, just a steady rise in the 2 years that I have been here.

bcworld

The descriptions seem to bear no resembelance to the clock phase...probably because they've got a different person to comment on each market. So Vic at 1200 is supposedly at the top of the market yet 'Good properties are few and far between but there are plenty of buyers'. Meanwhile NSW at 1130 is on the 'brink of a housing crash'. The only reason being is that they've asked Prof Steve Keen who is the biggest uber arch bear out there.

The usual newscom realestate guff.

DownUnderPaddy

I can only speak from a Melbourne view as that's where I live, but I can certainly backup the Vic clock time (in my area and from my perspective anyway !) from watching 2 auctions on Saturday morning in my immediate suburb while out walking.

We are located in a NE suburb, approx a 30 minute ride on the (express) train into the CBD

The property details for reference, if helpful :

1st one was a 3 Bed, 2 bath.
http://www.realestateview.com.au/Rea...1440396_S.html
- Vendor bid opened at 500k, sold for 540k in 8 minutes.
- Seemed quite reasonable for the property.

2nd one was a 4 bed, 2 bath.
http://www.realestateview.com.au/Rea...1440379_S.html
- Vendor bid opened at 600k, sold for 820k in 7 minutes (approx 35 bids !).
- Seemed like crazy money, yet there were 4 bidders involved up to the 800k mark !

DownUnderPaddy

Good comment.

I guess the potential immigrants only have the online articles to go by, which is why it's worth getting the actual feedback from people living here to refute or backup the (often outrageous) claims made in the papers as they arise.

It's why this forum is so valuable to those currently assessing the various factors in their decision making process.

The more realistic feedback (from people located in the actual areas with real observational evidence to offer) given, the more helpful it is for those trying to work off remote research only.

ABCDiamond

This one puzzles me NSW is the one state that has risen the slowest for the last 5 or so years. In fact, many areas still haven't recovered back to 2002 prices yet.

bcworld

See ref to Prof Steve Keen above - I'm sure you've probably heard of him before. I think he's the one that sold his Sydney apartment years ago in preparation for the impending crash...he's still waiting. As you've said before I'm sure he'll be proven right eventually if he waits long enough.

Styler

Not my experience in Adelaide either.

There are 2 houses on my street that were put up for sale 2 weeks ago, both were sold within 48 hours!

My house price has risen by 30% in just under 3 years, and all I have done is replace the kitchen and paint everywhere. Most of that was in the years before the recession, but it hasn't dropped in the past year and has gained slightly.

I would say that along with Tasmania, Adelaide is a good place to buy if you are an investor as the house prices here are still relatively cheap compared to the other mainland states.

spartacus

You're right bc its utter twaddle. If Vics at 12.00 now what happens if things get even tighter in the market (or should that be slacker?)? Will it go to 12.30?

Wanksplatt of the highest order!

spartacus

For a reason.

Styler

Well I ain't complaining. It's where the work is for me and my OH...being able to buy a bigger house than we could anywhere else in Australia, and having a pretty healthy savings account is a bonus

And it's not too bad down here you know, the locals are pretty friendly

dave99

no love for WA ?

mulben

Still on the sundial here so we will be always 3 hrs behind

fish.01

And I would concur that it is inaccurate for Brisbane market as well. Has been recovering strongly since April.

Geelong Gent

Until Jan the current market does not reflect true market conditions. What you ask? I mean there are numerous factors influencing the market in the short term which will be removed shortly and then a better view of the market will be had.

• Chinese buyers (basically desperate mainlanders trying to get cash out of the country before the restrictions/monetary policy in China are restored/implemented)
• First home buyers or should I say sellers grant is phased down
• Interest rates increase by 50% to 70% over next months
• Estate agents get fined and jailed under new penalty regime
• So called migrant statistics are challenged very nice to include all entries and exclude or leavers
• Capital gains tax exemptions removed for private residence
• Negative gearing remaining but with restrictions

My bugbear this month is underquoting. A house we are looking at for example below (exclude thoughts of bragging this is purely for factual content for shit stirrers)

• Based on recent sales in street (have taken 7 similar sized, and level of quality for comparison) depict a range of $2.3m to $2.5m. I simply used price divided by sqm for comparison.
• Marketed range is $1.5m (taken verbally) to $1.7m (taken by email)????
• So day of auction the place will be packed with naive prospective buyers who within minutes will be out of the running but as they say bums on seats pushs price on the day.