I read the section on Perth so far.

I only can say that in my suburb, 55km south of the Perth CBD, on the 11. Aug. 2006, 115 houses were on the market.

Today, 2 months later, 174 properties are on the market. Some are back with a lower price, the most 5% down.

3 months ago, there were only about 80 properties on the market.

From what I can see, very, very few sell

As soon as i saw Jenman in the addy I knew there was no need to read the crap he spoke.

Are you a dodgy real estate agent then?

Two or 3 yrs ago the Economist predicted a 30% fall for property in OZ.The financial review predicts 6% growth for WA property over the coming yrs on an annualised basis.The west predicted a median price of $1million not long ago,front page.My stockbroker keeps giving me buy and sell recommendations,I keep asking him where he buys the crystal ball that receives the signals from the future.As the old joke goes economists have predicted 14 of the last 3 crashes.One day it will end ,there is no doubt of that,but Jenman can no more predict the end than my goldfish can,nobody can predict the future.When it does end the crystal ball gazers will all be saying "it was me predicted it first and nobody listened".

Nup and Nup

Percentages...!!!! & economists bah !!!! Whats there real worth to society???


On a personal note....the Perth market and it's "upto 35%" increase in the past year is more like a figure I would expect in over a 10 year period.


Unfortunately this is not going to continue, and for the VI to mention "growth" should instead say "pure mad speculating flipping to the greater fool"

I read your subscript with interest!

NJ speaks a lot more sense about Oz real estate than any agent I've ever seen.

Interesting read. I think if interest rates stay on hold next month, we could see a bit more panic buying as people who have been holding off pile back into the market. That could give the market one last bounce.

Jenman makes sense, but unfortunately more people read the REIWA stuff, and talking up the market actually works.

If rates go up again, I think the 20% drop could happen, but that would only take prices back to levels seen about nine months ago. Nothing seems to be moving in our area right now, as people wait to see what is going to happen. Interesting times.

This was my point earlier in the discussion about nethouseprices.com. It is a very transparent way of seeing through real estate agent hype in the UK. Agents in Stratford East London, for example, have been talking up the market by up to 20% on the strength of the Olympics boom.

Sites like nethouseprices.com show that the actual land registry prices in Stratford have fallen by 10% since last year. Free resources like this make difference between approaching a seller with a clear idea of what the property is worth as opposed to what a Real Estate agent wants you to believe it's worth.

From the job news today (31000+ new jobs against a forecast 5000) seems like the rate rise in November is almost a certainty, only a very much lower than expected inflation figure at the end of October would persuade the RBA to keep rates as they are.....what a rate rise would mean...I would'nt like to speculate!

Cheers

Paul

Found this item interesting, as it seems to indicate they expect house prices to drop.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.as...ContentID=9451

New governor of the Fed Res (or whatever the Aus equiv. is) quoted in The Australian today as saying that a rate rise is more likely than not.

I think along the same lines as yourself mate!

I reckon the day that house prices in Perth fall 20% will be the day my asshole heals over

The thousands of people arriving every week are finding its all bloody expensive and the wages low too.

Can I sell you a few tulip bulbs? They will be 1000% more expensive next month, and you'll make a killing!