IvanM

They have the biggest lesson of all for us. The last great depression was ended with WWII. The poverty created an anti-semitic environment in Germany and hatred elsewhere.

autorock

Unfortunately mate I couldn't agree with you more. That's precisely why I think we're in for a rough ride.

Our entire economies (mainly the West) are built on to much credit: gov/biz/personal. Until this debt is reduced to managable and healthy levels, there is always going to be a bubble waiting to burst.

We've been spending money that doesn't actually exist. Much (if not most) of the easy credit available over the past 15 years has been secured against asset prices that have been severely over inflated. Housing has become an equity market like any other and speculation and sentiment has driven prices more so than fundamentals. Now these values (like stocks and various underlying derivative products) have begun to correct and erode the security behind al this debt and therefore, the money we have all been living it up on has vanished - because it never existed.

Now governments are propping it up with more money that doesn't exist.

For this reason, until the levels of debt return to 'healthy' and sustainable levels, we will continue to see this sort of market instability. This is yet again, "the recession we have to have".

OzTennis

Are you advocating WWIII rather than governments baling out financial institutions?

(Unfortunately), anti-semitism preceded and has continued after Hitler, admittedly that was its most shameful nadir and it goes on irrespective of whether the economic cycle is in bust or boom but you are right, some irrationally look for someone to blame when things get tough. I wouldn't mind betting though that this race (religion?) is more highly represented in the higher echelons of financial institutions, particularly in the states than in the population as a whole so I'm surprised they haven't been the targets of the blame.

BATS666

[QUOTE=OzTennis;6870103]Are you advocating WWIII rather than governments baling out financial institutions?
QUOTE]

Now there's an idea !! Hey, Hans, pass me the nuke !!

Vash the Stampede

One interesting thing to notice is that none of Australia's banks have collapsed.

None of them have gone bankrupt; none of them have been nationalised; none of them have been bought out by other banks; none of them have merged for the sake of self-reservation. Not a single one.

Meanwhile, our exporters are enjoying the benefits of a weak dollar.

BATS666

erm, not true.....

SYDNEY, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Australian insurance and banking group Suncorp-Metway Ltd said it received several approaches for its banking and wealth management operations, which analysts reckon could fetch up to A$5 billion ($3.9 billion), sending its shares up 8.5 percent on Monday.

Moves on Australia's second-biggest car and home insurer and sixth-biggest bank reflect the impact of the global credit crunch, which has stretched Suncorp's wholesale funding costs as with Australia's top bank takeover target, St George Bank Ltd <SGB.AX>, and mooted target BankWest, owned by Britain's HBOS <HBOS.L>.

Repeat after me "We are not immune, we are not immune"!!!

BATS666

and falling commodity prices.......?

Exile

I think the point is that the figure for financial services in the UK as a percentage of GDP seems to be quite similar to the figure for mining as a percent of GDP in Australia.

And the UK is clearly in big trouble because of its dependency on financial services, right?

BATS666

I wouldn't count 8% as "dependent".
Let's face it, the "trouble" affects everyone in the world whatever the %age of GDP their financial services sector is.

IvanM

I do not know the figure but the City of London has one of the worlds largest financial industries and London is being hit hard.

The reason everyone was c@cking their pants is that when lending almost froze other sections of the economy stopped being able to grow, trade, build etc. Once that started happening consumer confidence went down to levels not seen since the last recession. BTW Australian consumer confidence is down at those levels as well.

IvanM

Heh the Germans and Romans built roads much better than the NSW RTA. Anti-semitism and racism will always be around. Poverty just seems to bring it out into the open and opportunist low lives like the BNP, Pauline Hanson and KKK stir it up.

IvanM

35% of those exports have gone down by as much if not more than the dollar and their input prices have gone up. Oz needs steady.

A number of Australian finance companies have gone bankrupt, especially those funding housing developments. They have left investors with didly squat. The non bank lending sector has also nearly disappeared. I also doubt that ANZ (47 billion worth of CDS) would have survived without the new guarantees and NAB has a few skeletons in its closet. Suncorp would have sold itself to the CBA at a fire sale price were it not for the weekends guarantees. Yes Australia is better off at the moment but the roller coaster has only just started here and the level of disclosure is not high enough to truly know what is happening. The lucky thing here is that Australia has been able to learn off the US and UK and act before the collapses happened. That a 100% gurantee of savings was needed rather than a capped amount is also telling.

MartinLuther

Aus should be glad that it has the UK and US to show it how to manage its finances

autorock

Or how not to

MartinLuther

Exactly