Don

Click on the link http://www.upmystreet.com/property/p...1=bs8&gra=Flat and put your postcode in, plus specify the kind of property (flat, detached etc).

Will tell you whether property prices have already started to dip in your area.

Grayling

Shows mine going up sharply.

G

Deb

Good post Don,

Really interesting..

Thanks.....

Tried to send some karma but on a 24 hour ban....

Don

Cheers! It is a good one, isn't it. Based on the real selling prices (ie Land Registry figures) rather than spurious data from the likes of the Halifax or Nationwide surveys (who have something of a vested interest. )

sackofspuds

I agree with Don that the LandReg data is the benchmark for house prices, being as it is based on actual sale prices. See the following for the LandReg reports:

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/publicatio...pubtype=0&fl=1

However, it's worth pointing out that it is also the slowest of all the house price measurements to be published.

The LandReg data for the 3rd quarter (Jul - Sep) will be out early November. The latest available currently is the Mar - Jun quarter which will show no signs of a slowdown. UpMyStreet.com relies on the LandReg data.

The Jul - Sep data will probably show prices still rising. Any falls will be shown in the Oct - Dec data which will be out in early Feb.

I can recommend this message Board for more debate:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Messages.as...9221&bid=51402

gsb

Cheers Don..

Shows our area is on a steep incline.....long may it continue. But I do have my doubts as I dont think these prices are sustainable .

Gary

wmoore

Cool Bought mine in '99 for 30% under the average and when it comlpletes THIS AFTERNOON I will have sold it for about 5% over the average.

bundy

Confirms what I knew all along - Cambridge is a ridiculously expensive place to live.

spottydog

As other people have said these figures are 3 to 12 months out of date (from point of offer being accepted to completion generally takes a minimum of 2 months and these figures are based on completion date). If can also depend on the number of properties sold in the area.

For example, according to the Land Registry figures for my area terranced houses went from £248 (Dec 02) to £321k (Jun 03) to £249k (Dec 03) to £322k (Jun 04).
The problem is that in each quarter the number of sales of terraced houses used to calculate the average was about 4 so a single house being sold for higher or lower than the average can skew the figures massively.

For actual land registry figures for your postcode sector go to http://www.landreg.gov.uk/propertypr.../ppr_ualbs.asp and you can see their exact figures for postcodes since 1995

Don

In my old postcode (Bristol) there were about 60 flat sales a qtr so the data are quite good.

spottydog

I believe you looked in BS8 (thats what your original link showed) which is postcode district. Instead I narrowed it down to sector (add the first number of the second part of your postcode - 1, 2, 3 or 4) by doing this you will get a picture of your area of town only. In my case using the postcode district only will show all of my town with properties ranging from ex council to multi million pound pop/sports star houses. For example comparing all 4 postcode sectors in my town averages range from £186k (26 properties in sector 2) to £322k (4 properties in sector 4) which is a difference of £136k or a 73% extra cost of buying a terraced house in sector 4 than sector 2, and these are terraced houses which are at most a couple of miles apart.

Don

Of course but the higher sample gives a much better idea of what's happening for most people - and as far as I can see is pretty valid for the whole 'big' postcode. I didn't want to show you all my exact old postcode now, did I?

Sure, as you say, narrowing it down too much gives a less valid set of data which can be easily skewed up & down by just a sale or two at the top or bottom end.

In my case there isn't too much difference in trend between BS8 and BS8 X, though BS8 X has got a couple of 'odd' qtrs.

spottydog

Agreed, but I believe checking out sector is more important than just the district. I know I bought in the posh bit of my postcode district so I got a 2 bed tiny mid terrace house whereas in the cheap bit of the postcode district I could get a 4 bed large semi for less money and I would still only be a 30 minute stroll from my current place.

My parents also have the same postcode district but different sectors and their area is also a bigger variation.

I think overall it depends on the size (physical) of the postcode district as to whether sectors are relevant. For me living in a town where the postcode covers a number of square miles sector is important for living in a city where postcode district can cover only a few hundred square metres sector is less relevant.

I just had a quick look at E14 which covers Docklands in London. The average price of a flat over E14 is £294k but when you break it down by sector the average ranges from £159k to £360k. Someone who lives in E14 6XX could get very excited seeing the average flat price for E14 is nearly £300k then when calling in an estate agent gets informed its only worth half that amount in their bit of E14.

Whilst I follow the property & financial markets constantly personally I think the best way of finding out what the housing market is doing in your area is to watch estate agents websites and speak to your neighbours.

As the old saying goes there's lies, dammed lies and statistics! and I should know I spent 3 years doing my degree in mathematics with statistics.

Don

I don't think anybody uses the average selling price figure like that...there's so much variety in individual properties.

My point was that it was methodologically pretty correct to see the % change over time - ie re-base your property purchase price to index 100, re-base the 'average' property price in your (district) postcode likewise and work out the change over time.

worzel

I just looked at CV32 for semi's and it reckons prices have fallen by over £40,000 in the 2nd quarter of this year. If that wasn't so daft it would be scary. Change the criteria to CV31 or CV33 down the road or to detached and prices are holding up. Somebody must have given their house away to screw up the average.